2020 Hurricane Season

Yeah, it's already ****ing hot. Here we go.

 

2020 year of the fear.

Killer Hornets and UFO's vs man cold and big thunderstorms.

 

Mes got a bad feeling about this year. Not necessarily saying Galveston/Houston in particular, or even Atlantic basin.. But we may see some seriously intense storm in the Wpac and Epac amongst other parts of the world.

If we keep getting fronts like these, it’s only a matter of time before a GoM system is brewing. It will be interesting to see what the Cape Verde season brings. I’m not really looking forward to that either tbh.

 

Keep an eye on the GoM next week.. GFS, EMCWF, CMC and other models have a storm down in the Bay of Campeche heading NE then makes a hard WNW turn to Texas. Appears conditions won’t be very favorable with some sheer but that can change.

GFS shows a hurricane emerging from the Caribbean on the last few frames but that’s way to far out to even consider.

 

A solid Category 2 to lowend Category 3 hurricane between New Orleans and Houston will be interesting.

 

For that to happen in the first week of June would be depressing.

 

Good grief, what is going on?

Pandemic, riots, Trump, and now hurricanes.

Enough is enough.

 

This is some wild ****.

 

Here’s a gentleman local to us in Virginia that a lot of us follow. He posted this video last week which gives some good information on the upcoming season. I think it will be a active season based on the weather pattern. I also have a feeling that this is the year of the east coast storms.

 

So this was last night Euro Ensembles

Spoiler

Here are today's Euro Ensembles

Spoiler

 

Current Location: 19.6N, 91.2W
Geographic Reference: Emerging into eastern Bay of Campeche
Movement: West at 7 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Our Forecast
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded our Disturbance 4 to Tropical Depression Three. There are no significant changes to the forecast track through Thursday. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to what happens beyond Thursday. Since this storm will be a part of a larger low pressure area, the initial center could dissipate over southern Mexico on Thursday but another center may reform farther north. That is what the Hurricane Center is indicating in their initial advisory. However, to keep things simple, we will handle this system as one storm until if and when it dissipates over Mexico on Thursday.

Regardless of whether or not this storm dissipates over Mexico, we do expect a tropical storm to develop in the central Gulf this weekend. That storm would most likely track toward the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts early next week.

 

Current Location: 19.4N, 92.6W
Geographic Reference: Over the Southeast Bay of Campeche
Movement: West-southwest at 5 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 7 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 1003 mb

Key Points
1. Tropical Depression Three could dissipate in Mexico on Thursday, but a new low may develop to the north. That low could threaten the Northwest Gulf as a tropical storm over the weekend.
2. Additional severe flooding and mudslides are expected over Central America and southern Mexico.

Our Forecast
No significant changes have been made in this update. Tropical Depression Three will be a rather complicated system in the Bay of Campeche and southwest Gulf over the next several days. Tropical Depression Three is part of a large central American gyre, or low pressure area. The depression will become Tropical Storm Cristobal over the next 6 to 12 hours as it tracks westward to southwestward across the southern Bay of Campeche. We think that the center will move inland late Wednesday and quite possibly dissipate by late Thursday. We were thinking that a second low pressure area would develop well to the north near the northern Yucatan by Saturday, and that second system could impact the Texas and Louisiana coasts early next week.

However, we continue to indicate that this storm will accelerate northeastward starting on Friday morning and reach north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Models indicate that this will become a large tropical storm as is typically seen with tropical systems that form from the monsoonal gyre. This system is forecast to produce a relatively large area of tropical storm force winds across the northern Gulf this weekend into Monday of next week. This may result in above normal tides for much of the upper Texas and Louisiana coast for Sunday into next Monday. Currently, the models do not indicate that this system will become a hurricane.

Once inland early next week, the storm should steadily weaken and accelerate northward across east Texas on Tuesday, bringing heavy rain along its path.

Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Bay of Campeche: Power outages are expected, along with widespread severe flash flooding and numerous mudslides. Widespread flood damage is expected.
Remainder of southern Mexico and Central America: Continued flash flooding and mudslides should cause widespread flood damage.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche: Winds of tropical storm force could occur as soon as tomorrow morning near the center. Waves over 15 feet will also be possible.

Northwest Gulf of Mexico
Squalls may reach the deepwater areas off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by early Saturday morning and the near-shore waters along the Louisiana coast on Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely on Sunday and Monday across a large part of the northwest Gulf.