2020 - Going Forward: A discussion about the Rockets Small and Power Forwards

There is no one else, FO needs to step up.

Rockets need 2 long (+7'0 wingspan) 3-D players preferably 6'7 or taller.

And washed up guys like Thabo or guys who cant get on floor like Clark do not count.

And please no more weak minded mental case role players.

 

After we get bounced in the playoffs, I feel that Clint will be dealt and well have to roll with ihart.

I don't think there's a savior coming in the buyouts

 

PJ is not top half? For the rockets he is. I’d love to hear the names of realistic acquisitions of atleast 8 players that give the rockets what PJ does as a stretch 4 who is making like 8 mil.

 

What is luc up to these days? Just don't let him dunk.

 

Crazy how we're on Year 2 of this being a glaring issue and our impulsive, broke-billionaire owner has yet to address it

 

Ok boomer

 

Ariza buy out!

 

Far below the postseason contenders. So #9 or lower.

Plus Grizz and Pelicans have some great young potential.

 

The problem isn't so much that the guys we have can't play. They can. The problem is more the combination of length isn't there, and there is no magic one piece fix.

For example, Rivers. Good enough to play, not nearly big enough as a 3/4. But his driving ability is missed if he doesn't play because McLemore and PJ just spot up.
Gordon. Great all around game. But Westbrook is also 6'4 and neither guy can guard the post at all.
PJ. Legendary toughness. But no rim protection and below the ring athleticism.

Etc.

Basically if things are just slightly off for Harden, we run the risk of being blown out. It happens once in 20 games though...

Can you win four 7 game series getting blown out twice? Sure. But it could be tough!!

To get bigger and longer requires major changes. No easy quick fixes mid season.

 

The answer is 2 guys with length and athleticism.

3 man rotation of Ariza, Luc and Tucker was so underrated in 2017 franchise most wins season.

 

As everyone knows, I’m not a fan of the 3 Guard lineup simultaneously for great stretches
of time. The overloaded guard roster brings me flashbacks of last years playoff team that fought
valiantly vs the Warriors; but it never felt like the Rockets were truly in the series.

Rockets biggest problem in my opinion is the interior defense due to lack of size, athleticism and team
philosophy on defense.

Size/Athleticism (experience) solely belongs to Capela (Hartenstein might be still too raw).

Team Defensive Philosophy everyone that has listened to the Rockets telecast on AT&T SW
has heard Bullard say that the Rockets philosophy is to not double team the post player.
Rockets tend to double only after the post player or players make more than several low post baskets.
For the most part the Rockets show a double team but race out to the 3-pt shooters with the belief
that the low FG% post play will be inefficient vs our 3-pt shooting. Around 15 (3’s) being greater
than those gimme 2’s the other team makes.

*Side Note: By the way teams are learning to double Harden and show wall of 3 defenders to Westbrook, in
hopes of Westbrook picking up his drive......defenders race out to corner 3-pt shooters. Hope is Westbrook
picks up his dribble further out than he likes and ends up with one-on-one around 6 feet from the rim....
and he puts up a less efficient contested layup kinda around the rim. Much better than a Harden drive
because Westbrook will over shoot the rim and hit the other side of the backboard, shy of the rim shot or may
result in a turnover kick out pass.

Much like last year the Rockets are bad defending the restricted area:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/opponent-shooting/?sort=Right Corner 3 FG PCT&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&DistanceRange=By Zone

Team Opponent Shooting Overall (19/20) .....Restricted Area < 6 feet
Worst DFG% by teams in NBA
1) Kings 66.3%
2) Heat 66.1%
3) Nuggets 66.0%
4) Wiz 65.1%
5) Cavs 64.7%
6) Rockets 64.7% (tied with Cavs)

Only 2 playoff teams (if season ended today) with worse DFG% in restricted area; but check out FGA’s
in restricted area per game.

Team Opponent Shooting Overall (19/20).......Restricted Area FGA’s per game
Most FGA’s in restricted area by opponents in NBA
1) Hawks 32.9 FGA’s
2) Cavs 32.4 FGA’s
3) Pels 32.3 FGA’s
4) Hornets 31.9 FGA’s
5) Bulls 31.4 FGA’s
6) Portland 31.2 FGA’s
7) Rockets 30.5 FGA’s

No current playoff contenders with greater amount of FGA’s than Houston. Heat 4th best at 26.2 (FGA’s) &
Nuggets 12th best at 27.8 FGA’s per game in restricted area < 6 feet.

Player Defensive Dashboard < 6 feet
Player.................freq....................DFGA..................DFG%
https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-lt6/
(Rockets Starters)
Capela.................51.4%..................9.1......................57.6%
Tucker..................29.6%..................4.2......................62.4%
House..................35.0%...................4.2.....................59.2%
Harden.................29.8%..................4.2...............67.8% (not as good as last year....Harden was best post defender)
Westbrook............29.2%..................2.8......................64.8%
(Other notable Rockets)
Tyson Chandler.....51.5%.................2.5......................71.2%
G Clark (was).......40.9%..................2.5......................78.9% (biggest disappointment of Clark’s game imo....timid)
Rivers...................32.0%..................2.2.....................64.9%
McLemore............39.6%..................3.1.....................69.0%
Eric Gordon..........15.2%..................1.1.....................71.4%
Clemons...............18.4%..................0.8.....................68.8%
Hartenstein...........42.4%..................4.1.....................65.6%

Compared to Bucks (I often used Warriors as team Rockets must matchup to win it all....to be the best you have to beat the best).
Brook Lopez............46.0%...................7.4.......................41.0%
Robin Lopez............52.6%...................4.5.......................41.8%
Antetokounmpo.......34.7%...................3.6.......................42.7%
Ilyasova...................27.6%...................1.6.......................55.9%
DJ Wilson................33.7%...................1.6.......................58.1%
George Hill..............14.8%....................1.2......................52.4%
Wes Matthews........10.5%....................0.8.......................58.6%
Sterling Brown........20.5%....................1.2.......................58.1%
Middleton...............17.0%.....................1.4.......................50.0%
Korver....................25.4%.....................1.4.......................56.5%

So one can see the Bucks team defend the rim and are the best in the NBA as 53.6% (DFG%) and best with
opponents only trying 23.4 FGA’s in the restricted area per game; but sacrifices at 3-pt land with exception
to left-corner three.
Bucks are 2nd worst in NBA Above the Break-3 (teams giving up the above the break 3 over corner 3’s....WB drives after Harden double teams noted)
Bucks are 7th worst in NBA @ right corner-3
Bucks are 2nd best in NBA @ left corner-3

Of the top 16 teams in the NBA in DFG% in the restricted area < 6 feet
11 are currently playoff contenders.....Blazers (4th best), T-Wolves (7th best), Pels (11th), Suns (13th) & Bulls (15th)
are the teams with good restricted area defense but currently not in a playoff seeding.

Heat, Nuggets, Rockets, Spurs and 76ers are outside the top 16 teams but in contention as playoff seeded at the moment.

Players that I like and could help the Rockets (if feasible).
Player..........................freq.....................FGA’s (in RA)......................DFG% (in RA)
Mo Bamba..................55.5%......................4.7.......................................55.5%
C Wood.......................40.8%......................3.7.......................................52.8%
Mortiz Wagner............51.8%......................4.9.......................................52.9%
Davis Bertans............42.2%.......................4.8.......................................63.0%
Aminu..........................35.5%.......................3.2......................................59.3%
Markieff Morris...........35.2%.......................2.5.......................................64.5% (<Tucker; but a + to move PJ to 3-spot)
Aaron Gordon............31.6%.......................3.0.......................................53.7%
Terrence Ross............25.1%........................1.7........................................62.9%


I’m a strong believer that NFL playoff teams need a decent run game to settle the team down......NBA playoff
teams need a decent interior defense or run the risk of bleeding to death as a result of not being able to stop
the teams of easy points near the rim. Rockets Achilles Heel.

 

Apparently we are just going to keep beating our heads in. PJ and House are two of the worst starters in the league for a long time now. Bottom of the barrel. But we refuse to address it.

 

To get bigger and longer doesn't require major changes , it requires assets .... Assets we don't have because we dumped them to duck the tax.

I guess an owner who's willing to go into the tax might be a major change. ...

 

Would hesitate to say PJ is our shining star. His confidence seems like it has regressed this season. I was stoked that he had developed a little floater early on, but now he won't take anything.

A Westbrook, Capela, House, Tucker lineup next to Harden is so shooting deficient. It would be hard to make a less Moreyball lineup.

 

I was thinking about this a lot last night. I've made it clear I would love Bertans, and another poster got me interested in Mo Wagner. I feel we will have to give up both Harty and Clemons to get a serviceable player without losing Capela.

Even if Ariza is available at some point, lost faith in him in his last Rockets game. 0-9 was the end for me. I don't think we're going to get someone checks all the boxes, so I'm rooting for a very good 3 point shooter. We take so many 3's, so getting a lights out shooter will shine with us more than anywhere else. One name that nobody is saying is Spellman on the Warriors. He is one of the few people that checks all the boxes. I also would like to see us grab McBuckets if the price is right.