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2020 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    Here’s a couple of pictures of him from that BP. Looks to be in solid shape.

     
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  2. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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  3. SS0101

    SS0101 Member

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    Something I think is interesting that I just thought of is...with us losing our 1st and 2nd round picks for 2 years...does that not just save us money from those slot values? That is kind of weird. Something that can actually be used as an advantage. I know there are allotted amounts of international pool money, but at least way of signing FAs for the next couple of years. Is there some fundamental thing that I am not considering with this thought process?
     
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The Astros are allotted slot money based on draft picks for IFAs above a certain minimum salary. Astros losing draft picks costs Astros money to spend on IFAs. There is no advantage to losing money to spend on IFAs.
     
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  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Huh? The draft pick penalties apply to the Rule 4 draft only. And if I understand the above question, he’s asking if the money saved from draft pick penalties can be spent elsewhere, to which the answer is yes. Because of the penalty, Houston will spend far less money on the Rule 4 draft, and that “savings” can be spent elsewhere (in free agency or via acquiring a contract via trade). However, that savings can not be spent on signing international amateurs, because there are hard caps on how much each team can spend (note: teams can acquire addl pool allotment via trade).

    The upside to the savings is very limited because the value of draft pick dollars far outweighs the value of free agent dollars. But it is a minor silver lining.
     
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  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Not so optimistic notes on Martes via fangraphs:

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-limbo-the-best-of-the-2020-post-prospects/

    Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros

    Martes had Tommy John late in 2018 and was busted for PEDs early in 2019. He was back pitching in games late last summer, and his fastball and slider had both backed up. He was sitting 90-93 with a worse slider than he had before he broke down, his changeup was shelved, and a pretty average curveball was added to his mix. This is still a volatile situation because even if you thought Martes would be a reliever while he was a prospect, he still had huge stuff. But for now he’s not someone I expect to make a 2020 impact.

    TJS followed by PED is a pretty bad year. Hopefully the velocity drop and step back in stuff was just related to the surgery. We should definitely be able to gauge his value based on how he throws this spring. He was once a MLB Top 25 prospect and he’s only entering his age 24 season; it would be a huge boon for the Astros if he was able to make good on his original ceiling.
     
  7. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    My mistake. It appears only competitive balance picks in Rounds A and/or B (and not Rounds 1 and/or 2 which is what I thought), add money to base allotment for IFAs. So losing draft picks won't effect Astros ability to spend one way or another.
     
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  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Not to pick your nits, but the designation of competitive balance tiers A and B just determines what kind of draft picks and international signing pool those teams receive; the draft picks are not tied to the international pool. Meaning, even if Houston were a competitive balance team, and had been penalized a competitive balance draft pick, their international pool would not have been affected (unless of course Manfred made that an explicit part of the punishment).
     
  9. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Depends on wording. What I read from MLB's website said teams have a pick in Round A are awarded X dollars in IFA poll and teams that have a pick in Round B are awarded Y dollars in IFA pool. MLB stripping one of these picks would imply to me that a team would lose all benefits to the pick. If Astros lost these picks, I would assume they would lose slot money associated Rule 4 and IFA money, and not just the ability to pick a player at that position in the draft.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Pretty crazy that 10 of the 21 prospects on this list ended up getting traded away. And of the ones who weren’t, none have cemented themselves as core players so far. This system was widely considered in the top 10 in the league at that time.

    2: Tucker and Whitley are still expected to be core guys.
    4: Stubbs, Martes, Cionel Perez, and Valdez are still in the system and likely to contribute in the majors this year, but are not expected to be core pieces.
    4: Nova, Chavez, Sierra, and Dawson are still developing. Nova is a good prospect but none of the others currently are.
    10: F Perez, Laureano, Fisher, Hernandez, Celestino, Paulino, Cameron, Davis, H Perez, and Rogers were traded.
    1: Gustave was DFA and pitches for SF.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-21-prospects-houston-astros/
     
    #90 Snake Diggit, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/

    Whitley at 15, Urquidy at 101.

    My bias is strengthening on me, but as opening day gets closer, and especially since they are adding Leon, this farm is in pretty good shape. Whitley, Urquidy, and Abreu are a trio of extremely good pitching prospects, and each position has a pedigreed prospect that I think has a good chance of being everyday players (Lee, Matijevic, Lorenzo, Nova, Perez, Barber, Leon, Brewer). Can’t wait for April.
     
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  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-i-expect-to-make-the-2021-top-100/

    Astros well represented. Solis, Brown, Macuare, Javier, and Paredes on their list of prospects who could be on next year’s Top 100. Here are the guys I believe have some chance to be on Top 100 lists by the end of this season (in order of likelihood):

    OF Pedro Leon: a surefire Top 100 guy once he signs. Could be Top 50, and if he is assigned to AA and has success, he could end the season as a Top 20 guy.

    SS Jeremy Pena: he’s already on a few Top 100 lists, so as long as he has a decent season in AA he will be on most of those lists by year end.

    C Korey Lee: He will need a good year, but if he posts a ~130 wRC+ across A and High A, stays healthy, and has decent defensive reports, he will be on some lists.

    SS Freudis Nova: Like Lee, he’s in a good spot given his age, tools, and position. But he will need to post a really good year across A and High A (similar to what I posted for Lee).

    P Jairo Solis: He has the stuff, and a lot of evaluators really liked him before he got hurt. A healthy, dominant year in High A, and he will make the back end of some lists.

    P Hunter Brown: As a recent college draftee, he will need to be promoted aggressively (while continuing to dominate and show the stuff we’re reading about), but it’s certainly possible.

    P Tyler Ivey: He’s coming off some injury and cheating issues, but essentially any high ceiling young player who is already in AA will have a chance to be on some Top 100 lists assuming they dominate and don’t graduate.

    OF Jordan Brewer: See Lee and Nova. If he sticks in center, shows off his power and speed, and keeps his k rate below 20%, he will get a lot of recognition.

    P Jojanse Torres: In AA, throws 100. Would likely graduate too soon if he performs well enough to earn that kind of recognition.

    OF Colin Barber: Very unlikely as I think the depth above him will mean he plays in Tri-City this season, but if he is assigned to Quad Cities, he will have a lot of eyes on him, and posting a good slash line there will likely have him on some lists. More realistically, he can dominate short season ball this year and be the top potential Top 100 guy heading into next year.

    Other Pitchers who have the "stuff" but who I think are unlikely to put it all together enough to make that big of a jump: Enoli Paredes, Luis Garcia, Nivaldo Rodriguez, Jose Alberto Rivera, Peter Solomon, Ryan Gusto


    Guys I think can really make a huge jump, but whose stock is currently too low to be able to get on Top 100 lists this season:

    3B Joe Perez: 25+ HR as a 20 year old in A ball is more than possible, and if he does that he will be in great shape going into 2021.

    C Nathan Perry: He had a great 2019 which put him on the map, so another great year (this time in full season ball) while sticking at catcher will have him poised to break out in AA in 2021.

    2B Luis Santana: His exit velo took a step back, but still, given his position, age, and contact ability, he’s one step from being back on the radar.

    3rd tier Outfielders with high ceilings: Alex McKenna, Luis Guerrero, James Nix

    High floor types who would have to show something completely unexpected: C Colton Shaver, 1B JJ Matijevic, SS Grae Kessinger, 1B/3B Jake Adams, C CJ Stubbs

    3rd tier pitchers with ceiling: Shawn Dubin, Jairo Lopez, Lupe Chavez, Manny Ramirez, Jayson Schroeder, probably many others given Houstons ability to develop and find pitchers with elite velocity.

    2 Years away: C Nerio Rodriguez, C Miguel Palma, C Juan Santander, SS Yohander Martinez, 2B Dauri Lorenzo, OF Franklin Pinto
     
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  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Barber is young, plays a premium defensive position well, and hit last season. While maybe not as good a prospect as most of the guys listed above him, he's the type of guy that has potential to make a big jump in how he's viewed by prospect lists.

    On Kessinger, it is all about him the ball a little harder. Considering Astros drafted him in the second round, I wouldn't be completely surprised if he started hitting the ball harder. This is probably a big year for him regarding determining whether or not he's able to increase his exit velo.
     
  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Kessinger should probably be viewed as a 3rd rounder given his bonus. But your point is valid. I just don’t expect him to add the power to become the type of prospect we see on Top 100 lists. He’s a lot like Nolan Fontana in terms of ceiling/floor.
     
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Fontana had an elite skill and had contact issues. Kessinger has a lot of skills, and makes great contact on a swing that is tough to barrel up pitches. The Astros have had a lot of success fixing swings. Fixing contact skills is a lot harder.
     
  16. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    I’m sure the dodgers are crying about the Stros signing Pedro Leon. Kid will come in and be a star.
     
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  17. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    That is weak. Nobody can live off $400 per week (which is only paid during the season). The difference in financial outlay for these teams to make this narrative completely disappear is a couple million dollars total per team per year. So shortsighted.

    If they said the minimum is $40,000 per player per season, everyone complaining would be forced to immediately shut up.
     
  19. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    MLB wants to remove teams below A so minimum would be $500. It would be a about a 40% raise if that happens for bottom rung. For the way MLB has treated minor leaguers, this would be a huge step even though still likely a little short.
     
  20. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I probably would be ok with it if the minimum salary was guaranteed for the entire calendar year the player is in the teams org. $500/week is livable, but not when it’s only paid 7 months out of the year. It’s ridiculous these teams want to pay a guy $14k/yr yet expect him to stay in shape and get better over the offseason.

    Even if they want to be cheap about it, they could lower the draft bonuses and allocate that money to salaries; it’d be more equitable that way anyway.
     
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