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2020 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Here are the prospects in Houston’s system I think have a chance to hit more than 25 HR next season:

    AAA 1B Taylor Jones
    AA 1B/LF JJ Matijevic
    AA 1B/3B Jake Adams
    AA C/3B Colton Shaver
    High A OF Chandler Taylor
    A C/1B/OF CJ Stubbs
     
    #22 Snake Diggit, Dec 23, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2019
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  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Here are the prospects I think can post a .400+ OBP next season:

    AAA C Jamie Ritchie
    AAA 1B Taylor Jones
    AAA OF Drew Ferguson
    AAA OF Chas McCormick
    AA OF Cal Stevenson
    High A OF Marty Costes
     
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  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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  5. Nook

    Nook Member

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    A polarizing prospect even within the organization.
     
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  6. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    Anyone care to put a ceiling comp on Lorenzo? Looks and sounds pretty intriguing. I’m sure he will fill out that frame eventually and I’m pretty sure I read that he’s the prized intl. signee of our class this year.
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Maybe Jean Segura?
     
  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Ceilings aren't easily determined for 16, 17 year old players.
     
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  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    This.

    It really is hard to say. He is still physically growing and no one is sure how he will fill out.
     
  10. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    Somewhere between Lindor and Bogar.
     
  11. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    Disagree. Ceiling is probably more Alex Rodriguez and floor is more like Tim Bogar on offense with Orlando Miller on defense.
     
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  12. awc713

    awc713 Member
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  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Interesting to see Hunter Brown in the top 10, and no Brewer or Barber. Brown will be one to watch as with his stuff if he dominates A ball he will be shooting up lists.

    Also crazy that 1/2 that list is likely to graduate in 2020.
     
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  14. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Jo Adell hits the ball really hard when he hits it. I typically do not like prospects as much as mainstream media that strike out a lot, don't hit a lot of homers, don't steal bases, and don't walk a lot. If he makes contact at majors and gets some lift on the ball, he could be great. Though if his strike out numbers creep up in the majors, it is going to be tough to make up for it with line drives during the game and batting practice homers.
     
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/oscar-colas-to-seek-mlb-deal.html

    I believe Houston has quite a bit of money still leftover from this years pool, would be great if Houston could nab a prospect like Colas. Although I’m assuming Colas will be looking for a team to start him off in the majors and will likely wait until July to sign so all teams can make an offer. Still, I am expecting Houston to make at least 1 more meaningful international signing in this years class, most likely a late blooming pitcher.
     
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  16. studogg

    studogg Contributing Member

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    Agreed. going to lose draft picks too creating more need to add int talent.
     
  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-40-prospects-houston-astros/

    1 Forrest Whitley 60
    2 Jose Urquidy 50
    3 Abraham Toro 45+
    4 Freudis Nova 45
    5 Bryan Abreu 45
    6 Cristian Javier 45
    7 Brandon Bielak 45
    8 Korey Lee 40+
    9 Hunter Brown 40+
    10 Jairo Solis 40+
    11 Jeremy Pena 40+
    12 Jose Alberto Rivera 40+
    13 Enoli Paredes 40+
    14 Tyler Ivey 40+
    15 Angel Macuare 40+
    16 Jordan Brewer 40
    17 Colin Barber 40
    18 Grae Kessinger 40
    19 Luis Garcia 40
    20 Luis Santana 40
    21 Jojanse Torres 40
    22 Carlos Sanabria 40
    23 Cionel Perez 40
    24 Ronnie Dawson 40
    25 Dauri Lorenzo 40
    26 Manny Ramirez 40
    27 Rogelio Armenteros 40
    28 Nivaldo Rodriguez 40
    29 Garrett Stubbs 40
    30 Chas McCormick 40
    31 Blake Taylor 35+
    32 Shawn Dubin 35+
    33 Peter Solomon 35+
    34 Jairo Lopez 35+
    35 Brett Conine 35+
    36 Juan Pablo Lopez 35+
    37 Julio Robaina 35+
    38 Bryan De La Cruz 35+
    39 Cal Stevenson 35+
    40 Diosmerky Taveras 35+

    Translating these FVs to WAR would yield a slightly below average Farm System. Overall, I think the grades match up with what FanGraphs say the grades theoretically mean, but not necessarily the amount of actual WAR that these FVs typically produce. FanGraphs prospect guys love upside, especially in low level prospects. As 6 of the Top 7 Astros appeared in either AAA or the majors last season, I'd expect the Astros Farm is slightly above average as the these upper levels prospects are graded more on what is expected than "upside".

    Though, considering most of the value in the Farm is close to the majors..the expected value in the farm will likely drop significantly this season even if Lee and someone else has an amazing year.
     
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  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    There’s a lot of really interesting information in that article:

    Toro listed with plus speed
    Nova listed as a 3B
    Brown slipping to the 5th due to agent blunder
    Pena putting on 20 lb of muscle last season
    Ivey busted for foreign substance
    Macuare much higher than on other lists
    Torres signed with Milwaukee in 2015 with false ID
    Sanabria throws 99
    Cionel Perez throws 98
    Conine throws 96
    Robaina on the list at 37
    Diosmerky Taveras on the list at 40, throws 98
    Luhnow targets exit velocity
    Luhnow avoids minor league free agents, which leads to fast promotions of fringe prospects like McCormick/Rojas

    The main ranking/grade I think is off is Barber, who I think they’re way too low on. Otherwise there are a lot of grades and ranks I’d quibble with but nothing major. This list reflects consensus: the system is very deep in pitching and has nice depth all around, but lacks top end position player talent.
     
  19. prospecthugger

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    I was hoping we would get a Ryan Gusto scouting report. None of the Jucos they signed this year made the list.
     
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  20. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Given that Houston obviously does things differently and have been drafting late, evaluating their system is pretty much a crapshoot. These experts’ best bet is to talk to folks within the Org to try to glean which prospects they like. I’m also surprised Nix and Gusto weren’t mentioned anywhere.
     
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