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2020 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    The Rays identify international prospects well and when they believe they have someone special, they will go all in. That is also the mentality Click had and pushed in Tampa. He wasn’t the decision maker but he was one of the four people in the room debating what to do on international players.

    Click was the one that pushed for giving Franco the $4,000,000 that it took to sign him and out bid everyone else. There were concerns about the amount of money and the Rays were going to settle for Robinson instead.
     
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  2. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Hard to say whether that’s good or bad for the Astros. My gut says it’s a good thing since it pushes more talent into future drafts when Houston will have more picks. But a shorter draft means even more value in the top rounds, where Houston is penalized.
     
  4. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    For you guys that follow the minors very closely

    Yes this question is fantasy baseball based...in a very deep league with large minor league rosters and doing a slow draft

    Who would yall list as the 3 highest UPSIDE guys in our system. Maybe they have low floors and high bust margins...but looking at Upside only, who are the top 3??

    Thanks in advance
     
  5. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    The $10K bonus post round 10 (instead of the usual $100K bonus limit) will be a tough pill to swallow for many draftees. I could see HSers heading to JuCo for a year, to get another bite of the apple next year.

    I suspect that the Round 30+ talent who want to play pro ball will still sign.

    The Astros with their deep analytics probably fare better than most in the post round 10 drafting.
     
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  6. moonsh0t

    moonsh0t Member

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    For fantasy purposes:

    1) Forrest Whitley (RHP)
    2) Freudis Nova (3B/SS)
    3) Jairo Solis (RHP)

    All 3 seem to have the tools to be above average to star level players, not that the outcome is likely. Toss Pedro Leon in there if his tools are as advertised by MLB Pipeline. I mean look at those scouting grades.
     
  7. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Agree on Pedro Leon. He has a higher bust potential but has an extremely high ceiling. He has been dinged some because of his height but it is only an advantage because he generate exceptional power with his wrists.
     
  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Whitley
    Urquidy (he had a 3.35 ERA over 51 innings reg sea+postseason)
    Barber
     
  9. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Yea I can't take Leon cause he hasn't officially signed yet

    Had Nova the top of my list (Whitley and Urquidy are gone) but had Abreu and Javier as next two. Will definitely look into Solis and Barber now

    Appreciate the thoughts guys....damn I miss Astros baseball
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    1. SP Forrest Whitley
    2. IF Freudis Nova
    3. OF Collin Barber
     
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  11. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    So assuming there is a minor league season of any decent length, if nova and Barber had big years, How high do you think they could get on the overall Prospect lists
     
  12. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Nova Top 50. Barber likely would need more than a season to get on a Top 100 list. Maybe end up in the 150 to 250 range.
     
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  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Ignoring for a moment the tragic context, if the season is canceled entirely, while it would be a huge blow to the Astros major league team to lose an entire year of their competitive window, it would likely impact the farm in a few positive ways:

    No deadline deals shipping out top prospects.

    Weaker draft due to fewer rounds pushing top talent out to years when Houston will not be penalized.

    Delayed graduation of upper level talent (Whitley).

    I spent some time reviewing the top prospect lists for all the teams Fangraphs has released so far, and the correlation between the number of 1st picks in a teams system and the overall farm rankings is extreme. Other than the Yankees, who have managed to maintain a solid farm via international signings from before the pool restrictions, every team with a top farm has 7+ 1st rounders in their system. The average system has 4-5. Houston has 2 (Whitley and Lee). Bottom line is, the way to keep a farm healthy is simple:

    1. Don’t miss on 1st rounders, and don’t trade them away. Houston has not done this. They’ve traded away 4 1st round picks in the last 3 seasons (Fisher, Cameron, Bukauskas, Beer). They also whiffed in a 1-1 (Appel).
    2. Spend as much money on international signings as possible. Houston has done this and appears to be focused on it even more moving forward.
    3. (Distant 3rd) Find a competitive advantage in development/scouting that allows you to generate actual value from later rounds and lesser bonus signees. Houston has done this. They have definitely established a solid approach to finding and developing pitching.

    This farm is really only 2-3 good position player prospects away from being above average. Whitley, Abreu, Urquidy, Javier, and Solis is a fine fivesome of top end pitching talent, and their pitching depth beyond that rivals any in the league. Lee, Nova, Toro, Pena, Barber, and Leon (when he signs) are fine 2nd tier prospects that any team would be proud to have in their org Top 20. The position player depth beyond those guys isn’t nearly as good as it is on the pitching side, but it’s not lacking. If they still had Beer and if Tucker was still eligible, they’d easily have a middle of the pack farm with an argument for it as above average depending on how you value depth vs top end.

    Everything happening in the world sucks. And losing Springer to free agency without getting his last year on the field sucks. But taking a year off from trading away prospects just might extend the window.
     
  14. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    The chances of keeping Springer would likely go up if the season were to be cancelled, which I do not think will happen. If the entire season were to be cancelled though, I think it's pretty clear that we wouldn't see the huge money in free agency being spent next year like this past offseason. Teams will lose a LOT of money this year, not to mention a lot of the owners are likely losing big time money in other areas of their life. Crane if i'm not mistaken made his fortune in freight and shipping, so I would guess his personal finances will survive this a lot better than some other owners.

    That's interesting on the 1st round picks though I suppose it shouldn't be surprising. That's why I don't think people realize how big losing the draft picks for two years is. The next time we will pick in the first or second round is 2022. It's not just that we could hit with one of those picks and turn it into a great or even solid mlb player, it's the ability to use those guys as trade assets also. If we do not hit on a couple of international signings, we are likely looking at another 2013 level rebuild sometime around 2024
     
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  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Excellent points about free agency spending and Cranes fortune fairing better than other owners. I am hopeful they can have a shortened season, even if it’s a 50 game season played in the ST complexes with no fans in the stadium. Best case would be a half season (~80 games) starting in July.

    It’ll be very interesting to see how next offseason plays out.
     
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  16. Kemahkeith

    Kemahkeith Member

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    I'm curious.
    If the year is in the crapper.
    What happens to Francis Martes suspension?

    No love for him, just curious.
     
  17. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I still think an 81 game season is very likely. I know many on here disagree but only time will tell. Now some, quite a bit, most or all of that may be played without fans, but at least getting the games played and on TV would be great for those guys, as well as the nation.

    But whether they get any games in or not I agree, next offseason will be very interesting. The overall money available to spend will definitely be down quite a bit, possibly to a fairly extreme amount.

    Will be interesting to see how all of this plays into the next CBA too. Lot of issues have been brought up already for that including getting rid of minor league teams and shortening the draft. I think those things will be much more likely to happen now, with both sides taking a financial blow. The MLBPA won't fight to keep things for the minors when things for themselves could be taking a fairly significant downturn.

    Will also be interesting to see how it plays into the international signings
     
  18. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I"m pretty sure I read that MLB already announced that all drug suspensions would be counted in full for this year regardless

    Martes is the second (Appel) biggest "bust" of a prospect that I can remember in a long long time

    And really you could say the biggest, Appel never did anything in the minors to earn the prospect ranking he got, he was just a great college player and drafted first overall so he went straight to top 100 lists. Martes went from nobody to a top prospect because of his actual ability....and then became a nothing (Please Mr. Whitley, do not follow his path)
     
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  19. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    That's correct...as will the suspensions of AJ Hinch and Jeff Luhnow.
     
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  20. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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