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2019 Trade Speculation and/or Rumors Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Joe Joe, May 1, 2019.

  1. raining threes

    Supporting Member

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    Good list

    Is Tallion coming back this year and when is this supposed happen.
     
  2. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    So you are thinking Matt Boyd, Anthony Rendon and Doolittle

    I"m good with that
     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Pretty sure Taillon is expected to be out past the trade deadline.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Who are the likeliest prospects to be traded by the Astros that would be considered a main part of the package? Last year, it seemed Bukauskas was the biggest trade chip. This year, it doesn't seem as cut and dry as some of the likely trade chips have had rough starts.

    My best guesses are:
    Beer
    Nova
    Toro
    Bukauskas

    Unless Astros take on a lot of salary, it may be difficult to get a non-rental ToR SP with these chips.
     
    #304 Joe Joe, Jun 12, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019
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  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Corbin Martin seems like the most likely player to headline a deal for a starting pitcher. I also think Derek Fisher has more trade value than he’s given credit for. We can safely assume Tucker, Whitley, and Alvarez are untouchable. So here’s how I would break down the trade chips:

    Potential Headliners:
    Martin
    Beer
    Bukauskas
    James

    2nd tier:
    Fisher
    Straw
    Stubbs
    Toro
    F Valdez
    C Perez
    Abreu
    Nova

    Interesting to the right team:
    Rojas
    Bielak
    Ivey
    Armenteros
    Urquidy
    Paredes
    L Santana
    R Dawson
    Torres
    Arauz
    E Valdez
    Pena
    Schroeder
    Carrasco

    Throw-ins:
    Reed
    White
    Kemp
    Rodgers
    Guduan
    Stassi
    Deetz

    I think a package of Martin, Beer, and Fisher should be able to get them a good starting pitcher with some control remaining. That’s certainly more than it will take to get Bumgarner.
     
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  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    While I think it will be difficult to keep Kemp based on other players being better, he deserves his own category as he doesn't fit with these guys.
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    He doesn’t have the ceiling of Reed (once one of baseballs 20 best prospects) or Guduan (lefty who throws 100). He’s been a worse player than White and Stassi in the majors:

    MLB PA, fWAR
    Kemp 604, 0.8
    Stassi 398, 2.9
    White 733, 1.3

    If you want to drop Rodgers and Deetz down from “throw-ins” to “DFA”, fine. But as lovable as he is, Kemp belong in that group.
     
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  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/is-there-a-trade-market-for-edwin-encarnacion.html

    MLBTR lists Astros as best fit for EE. Interesting that the $5M buyout on his option is already covered. If it weren’t for the clubhouse implications, a Reddick/Gurriel for EE trade seems to make a ton of sense to me.

    Astros get:
    1B Edwin Encarnacion

    Mariners get:
    1B Yuli Gurriel
    RF Josh Reddick
    RHP Rogelio Armenteros

    They are owed roughly the same money this season. Next season Reddick/Gurriel will he owed ~$22M combined and project to be worth about $15M. The buyout on EE’s option roughly covers the amount Reddick/Gurriel are underwater. Mariners get a 3rd tier pitching prospect for their trouble.
     
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  9. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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    Get them to throw in Will Smith too.
     
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  10. torque

    torque Contributing Member

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    A lineup of:

    Springer CF
    Bregman 3B
    Altuve 2B
    Brantley LF
    Correa SS
    Alvarez DH
    Encarnacion 1B
    Tucker RF
    Chirinos C

    is probably the best lineup of all time.
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Imagine that lineup, with Diaz/Marisnick/Vogt as the bench, with this pitching staff:

    Rotation: Verlander, Cole, Bumgarner, Peacock, Miley

    Bullpen: McHugh, James, Joe Smith, Rondon, Harris, Will Smith, Pressly, Osuna
     
    BHannes2BHonest and AznH-TownFan like this.
  12. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I don't value data from 2016 evenly with 2018 and 2019 data. Current Fangraphs projection has Tony Kemp as 1.5 fWAR per 600 PAs. FV 50 position player prospects typically provide 3.1 fWAR average value and 0.8 fWAR median value for their club control years according to Fangraphs. Basically, Kemp is likely better than most FV50 prospects, though he doesn't have the upside of the very best FV50 prospects. Granted, I think it would be difficult to trade someone like Kemp for a FV50 player, but that is because most teams value upside over likely value. Though, some teams are like the Pirates that value cheap production as they don't have the money for free agents and would consider guys like Kemp (though I'm not sure Pirates have a current fit) a decent piece.

    I don't trust White and Stassi as much as their projections (Stassi for game calling and White as he needs to find his swing while being out of options makes him a tough sell for short term). If you trust Stassi and White's fWAR numbers as representations of their value, they should not be throw-ins either.

    On Guduan and Reed, their current 90% ceiling likely isn't at least 1.5 fWAR per season.
     
  13. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Big Red Machine ('76)
    Rose 3B (HOF)
    Griffey RF
    Morgan 2B (HOF)
    Bench C (HOF)
    Perez 1B (HOF)
    Foster LF
    Concepcion SS
    Geronimo CF
     
  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    We will just have to see what each of those guys brings back as they are each let go.
     
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    They'll like be in packages which muddies up who is the a significant piece and who is a throw-in. Simple question...Do you think Kemp is likelier to produce closer to 1.5 fWAR or 0.8 fWAR over his next 600 PAs?
     
  16. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Foster won MVP in '77
     
  17. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member

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  18. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Lmao my goodness
     
  19. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    That deal would make me hard for a week. Fix the one real problem we have in the offense with not enough production out of 1b, and give Tucker the chance to play.
     
  20. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Jordan Horang is one of the dumbest human beings to walk this earth.
     
    AznH-TownFan and everyday eddie like this.
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