2019 contracts

The Astros are going to be worried about payroll because Crane has said the money saved now will be needed later when some of these big name players are going to be getting hefty raises and contract offers through free agency.

My gut is:

Harris' option isn't picked up or it is picked up and he is traded. Either way he isn't back.

Kuechel isn't brought back. The Astros already have Whitley waiting, and with players like Cole and Verlander facing free agency soon, the Astros need someone other than McCullers that is young and under the teams long term control.

Evan Gattis is not brought back because the Astros have a number of internal options. Gattis is the one candidate I could see attempt to come back at a very low rate, but unless it is $5,000,000 or less, I do not see him coming back.

Marwin Gonzalez is not back, as the Astros will consider making a deal for a similar player such as Hernandez or Deitrich.

Charlie Morton is someone that I think the Astros will try to bring back on a two year deal. If he becomes cost prohibitive, they can always use someone internally of sign a 5th starter.

Colin McHugh is interesting. If he continues to pitch like he has been, the Astros will offer him arbitration for 2019. If he falls off, he could well be moved.

The Astros won't be fooled by Tony Sipp again. He is gone.

The bullpen is in excellent shape. Almost everyone is under long term control with Osuna possibly being an Astro for 3 more seasons depending on his service time. James and Perez both are likely going to get a shot.

I don't think McCann is back either. He has physical issues and isn't going to play at the number the Astros will offer.

So.....

Gone:

Dallas Keuchel
Will Harris
Tony Sipp

McCann
Marwin Gonzalez
Evan Gattis

 

I really don't understand the business side of professional sports. Reading and vaguely following what's said by people who do is actually one of the major reasons I got into ClutchFans in the first place. I guess I just kind of go by my gut feel.

Keuchel: Been thinking from early on that he's not going to be back next year. His extreme hot/cold performance this year hasn't helped his case any. I want a pitcher like him to succeed, but he's just the riskiest pitcher. Ball has to be in exactly the right place on a pitch AND the ump's strike zone can't be so narrow that it excludes the corners Dallas lives on. I feel like McHugh ought to be able to slide right into that starting slot, which is what he wants anyway. The money spent that might be spent on Dallas could probably go a long way elsewhere. Would be a shame to see him go, because he's a face of the franchise and his stuff is still there...sometimes...usually...especially recently. But I just don't see him coming back.

Marwin: Nope. Consummate jack of all trades, master of none. Versatility as a fielder is, of course, impressive but it comes with being good but not great at any of the positions, and there have been errors from him this season that have cost us games. Right now, it is pretty painful seeing how few middle infielders we have. Having to have Yuli at second because Davis can only play a below-average third base and White can only play first? Makes you want to hold on to a Marwin, but that's that not a good enough reason. Guy is batting only .231 overall this year. .265 if you flip him over the right side, where he only bats 1/3 of the time (and a sad .212 as a LHB). Predictability at the plate is nearly nonexistent in my observations. Might belt a couple home runs one game and hit into two crushing double plays next game (the latter being more likely, I'd wager.) I just don't think you can pay a good chunk of change for a guy that sometimes has flashes of brilliance, but overall is a drag at the plate and never has a defined position. He needs to start hitting consistently, but I never hear about him working on his swing or anything. I don't think it's going to happen. You don't get to be a drag at the plate, just because you're a "utility player."

McCann: McCann's done his job as a baseball player, and he's got a ring. After that many years of catching, his knees are probably destroyed. Maybe he should retire, and they should hire him on as a coach to transition that great rapport and feel he has for the pitchers to the next generation. Stassi can actually hit pretty well.

Gattis: Everyone loves Gattis. In June, Gattis was every single thing you could ever want from a DH. And that came out of nowhere, so it turned out to be a great risk this season. Still, can he keep it up? We'll see in the rest of the season and the playoffs. I just don't know. Just don't know if this fire he suddenly conjured is going to continue to be a steady blaze for additional seasons. I'm pulling for him, but I bet he's gone next season.

Morton: No idea. I think they'll try to get him back, so they don't have two gaps in the rotation to fill.

Just going by my gut based on what I've seen from watching a lot of games this season.

 

What’s your guess for 2019 payroll? What do you think their plans are at catcher?

Trading Harris and McHugh would save $10-15M. But McHugh has been so good this year I don’t see how they just let him go. I’d rather them salary dump Smith if money is that tight.

 

I agree on Harris, Sipp, McCann

I would put the chances of Keuchel being back at around 30% which is a lot higher than most. I think the way he is pitching this year is exactly what was needed for there to be at least a chance of him coming back. He has been pretty good but not great. If he was great, not even Cy Young quality but consistent all year long, he would have commanded a nice 4-5 year contract. I don't think the big money is going to be there for him though and if he ends up going at what Luhnow would consider a "discount" then I could see us bringing him back

Marwin is somewhat similar. If he had another year like last year he would be gone for sure. But he isn't getting a bigtime contract with the year he is having, and if they are going to look at others with similar skill sets, ability and money I think they would prefer to bring back Marwin. I'd put him around 30% also

I think Gattis is back. I think the organization likes him, the other players like him, and while he is inconsistent (about 90% of baseball players are) he still provides a level of production that we aren't just going to automatically get running White/Davis or some other random mid to low level prospect out there. Now if someone throws good longterm money at him, yea he is gone. I just don't see anything doing that. My gut feeling is he is back as our DH again. Maybe it's a gut feeling but i'd put the chances of him being back in the 70% range.

 

Agree with all of your post, with the addition / note that I think someone out there will offer Gattis way more $ under the same presumption we initially had. "He can hit, and he can play catcher...we'll be the geniuses that use him in that capacity and have a hitting C!" 2 yrs / $15M I think is the minimum from some other team, and potentially more coming.

Question on McHugh arbitration. How will he be treated? He has years of SP experience under his belt and could earn that money on the open market, but he'll have spent the entire season as a reliever--and will be expected (I assume) to be a reliever going forward. Treated as a Devo / Andrew Miller, what he is this year (setup man), SP given his ability?

 

I'd be completely shocked if McHugh is non-tendered.

 

Yeah, that 100% isn't happening. If anything they'll just move him back into the rotation after Keuchel leaves - we aren't going to be this fortunate again health wise in the starting rotation next year so Whitley will still get his shot most likely regardless.

 

I think the salary projections in part depend on what happens this season.

If we win another World Series the amount of funds will obviously be higher.

You figure losing:

Dallas 13 million
Harris 5.5
Sipp 6 million
Gattis 6.7 million
Marwin 5 million
McCann 11.5 million

Aproximately 45+ million dollars

Then you have to figure in arbitration raises and probably a few free agents.... bringing back Morton (if possible) and McHugh in his last year of arbitration.

The Astros should have the financial resources to add someone good on a short deal to catch or DH.

As for catcher, they have options. They can go and sign someone like Maldonado at a relatively cheap price and hit him 9th with Stassi splitting time. Maybe they decide to spend prospects on someone else.

 

We only have to pay JV $20M. Detroit ate $8M

 

With McHugh showing so much better out of the pen than he ever did as a starter (not that he wasn't good as a starter) and Peacock showing similar ability in both roles, I think Peacock would be much more likely to go into the rotation with McHugh staying in the pen

If Pressley ends up being really good, our pen with Pressley, Rondon, McHugh, Osuna will be as good as any in baseball

 

I agree with you I was just saying that in response to McHugh may be "too expensive" which is why the non tender discussion was brought up (once again not going to happen). However, if that was actually the case it's easier to justify spending $10M or whatever it may be on a starter than a middle reliever.

 

Right now I have 2019 payroll at around $160M if they pick up all options ($15M for McCann, $5.5M for Harris) and don't add any free agents. Obviously they're not going to pay McCann $15M and Harris probably isn't a good use of $5.5M. Total guess, but I think if they reach or win the WS their payroll should be able to get up to the $180M range. An early bounce in the playoffs and $160M is probably right where they will want to keep it. So they'll have $20-40M to spend, assuming they don't do any other cost cutting moves or lock in any extensions. And they'll need to add a SP, a catcher, and possibly a OF/DH bat. That said, even without adding, I project their 2019 fWAR at around 53, which is about what the 2017 team put up, so they'll be plenty good even if they stand pat.

It sucks that they are pushing up against a payroll ceiling without any bad money on the books and only 1 big contract (Altuve). Reddick ($13M), Gurriel ($10.4M), and Smith ($8M) seem to be the only contracts for next year that won't be a great value.

 

They would be stupid not to bring Morton back. Unless he retires.

 

He’s not going to retire. That story that said he was considering it was bogus what he did say was that he doesn’t want to pitch another five years

 

Agree with that but it is hard to pass on all of the top end relief talent that will be hitting the market. Andrew Miller, Craig Kimbrel, Zach Britton, etc.

My ideal off-season using your assumption of 40M budget:

Re-sign: Morton (15M), Marwin (8M), Maldonado (4M)
Sign: Britton (8M), Beltre (5M)

 

2 buy low guys that might make sense to replace Marwin: Neil Walker and Mike Moustakas.

Walker will cost less than $4M and while he had a bad year, he was a star as recent as 2016, and his bad 2018 could be attributed to his late signing. He has been pretty good the last 2 months. He can play 2B, LF, and 1B.

Moustakas will also be cheap, a 1 year deal <$10M is likely all it will take. He has 60+ HR over the last 2 seasons and can play 3B and 1B, and likely would be serviceable as an emergency option at SS, 2B, RF, and LF.

 

5 free agent alternatives to Houston’s pending free agents:

Alternatives to Brian McCann and Martin Maldonado:
Yasmani Grandal
Wilson Ramos
Jonathan Lucroy
Kurt Suzuki
Devin Mesoraco

Marwin Gonzalez:
Jed Lowrie
Asdrubal Cabrera
Neil Walker
Logan Forsythe
Mike Moustakas

Evan Gattis:
Justin Smoak
Lonnie Chisenhall
Steve Pearce
Carlos Gonzalez
Nick Markakis

Dallas Keuchel:
Patrick Corbin
JA Happ
Gio Gonzalez
Cole Hamels
Drew Pomeranz

Charlie Morton:
Marco Estrada
Nathan Eovaldi
Tyson Ross
Lance Lynn
Hum-Jin Ryu

Tony Sipp:
Andrew Miller
Zach Britton
Jake Diekman
Justin Wilson
Trevor Rosenthal