They're not doing much of that anymore. They've learned to suck it up and pay out the remainder of whatever they owe Tanaka and Sabbathia... but there will be better pitchers on the market, with less downside, if they decide to throw that kind of money at somebody. I really think Keuchel will be in a position to consider the qualifying offer.
I agree , teams are getting smarter. There are 6-8 teams who hope to contend and the rest have no need to invest in Keuchel. Baseball does not have a minimum salary cap, so teams can scrap their roster and never feel compelled to sign multi yr players over 30.
Market seems pretty awful for guys like Keuchel.... Boras is (likely) going to have another hissy fit this off-season... feels like things may come to a head between players/the league/individual clubs regarding player spending.
Basically, its the players, and their union's, fault that they're in this situation. The MLBPA thought it would be better to sell out the young prospects, draftees, and arb-eligible players for more money on the back-end... but when its so painfully obvious now that a players best years are their club-controlled years, and its ever more clear that a team can't simply go out and buy a contender... teams are no longer willing to shell out huge dollars for past performance, with the exception of a few HOF-caliber type players. The solution will probably lie in the players asking for less club-controlled years/earlier free agency, which will preserve some of their prime years for bigger contract extensions. But that could have a negative effect in teams deciding to hold back players longer, till they know they're ready to thrive, and then start their clocks at a time where they're as close to being all-stars as possible. And that's why the players, even though this seems as unnatural as anything has ever been in baseball, may be better off bargaining for a salary floor and cap, so that all teams will have to pay something... and contracts will end up being somewhat uniform.
Yeah , a minimum cap results in teams like the 76ers giving Reddick a 1 year, 23 million contract. It's the best solution for them, although I dont know what percentage of overall media revenue small market teams get. There is no way Oakland can reach a min cap every year without help from the MLB, and possibly big market teams.
There is a very good chance this coming offseason is another odd year regarding free agent contracts. Too many good young players right now for older decent players to make money. Minimum salaries has not kept paced with free agent salaries making it even less desirable to sign decent free agents. I'm guessing the decent free agents have a second consecutive bad offseason.
I too see Morton as the only one I expect us to make a serious run at (possibly accepting a QO). We are so deep in pitching with Peacock & McHugh still on the roster, plus a host of prospects. We should be fine in 2019 without Morton and DK, but should be in very good position with just 1 of them. Stassi has shown himself to be competent enough that I don't see McCann coming back without a significant pay/role decrease and you've got Garrett Stubbs seemingly ready for an opportunity. You've got Reed, Davis, & White all sitting there waiting for a chance for that open DH spot. Of course that could leave us with a big hole like it did at 1B when White/Reed looked ready 2 years ago to take that position.
One of the three should be able to fill the DH role. Fisher is another candidate for DH, if he can not win back the starter's LF role from Kemp.
One thing to remember- The Yankees have a no facial hair policy along with no long hair policy that goes back ages. Would Dallas be willing to shave the beard to play for the Yankees? I mean his beard is his other woman. It seems very important to him.
A better way to look at this is to ask who do we have internally to replace the production of each of these players? Keuchel: Peacock, McHugh, Whitley Morton: Peacock, McHugh, Whitley Marwin: Kemp? Gattis: JD Davis, White, AJ Reed McCann: Stassi, Stubbs Sipp: Cionel Perez If I had to guess, I think they try to keep one of Keuchel or Morton, as well as Marwin. Keeping one of Keuchel/Morton does a couple of things. First, it opens up our 5th starter spot to competition, and between Peacock, McHugh and Whitley, we should have a very high quality back end starter. It also provides some insulation against potentially losing either or both of Verlander or Cole in 2020. Kemp might be the closest thing we have to a Marwin, except he's not a switch hitter, can't play first and I don't think he can play 3rd. In other words, he's not very close. Gattis is gone. Davis, White and Reed are all basically younger versions of Gattis...surely one will step up in 2019. McCann looks like he's getting close to the end of his career. Currently averaging career lows in BA, SLG and OPS. Can a Stassi/Stubbs platoon hold up? If not, we may see a trade before spring training. Can't see Sipp coming back. Perhaps Cionel steps into his shoes as a lefty specialist, but otherwise we can look to free agency. Also, with Tucker, Ferguson, Straw, Alvarez and Fisher all in AAA and probably ready for callups within the next year, I think Marisnick is on his way out, one way or another. 2019 Infielders Gurriel Altuve Correa Bregman Marwin 2019 Outfielders Springer Reddick Kemp 1 of Tucker/Ferguson/Straw/Fisher/Alvarez 2019 Catchers Stassi Stubbs 2019 DH 1 of Reed/White/Davis/Alvarez 2019 Starting Pitchers Verlander Cole McCullers 1 of Morton/Keuchel 1 of McHugh/Peacock/Whitley 2019 Relief Pitchers 2 of McHugh/Peacock/Whitley Rondon Devenski Giles Smith Harris 1 of Perez, Thornton, Armenteros or someone else
And this all presumes the Astros will only promote internally, and not acquire outside help... which they still will have the payroll flexibility to do if needed.
Marwin has been so productive we have given him an everyday role, but his core purpose on the roster is as a utility infielder. Bregman gives us some flexibility in that regard. Marwin has been little used at SS this season, almost all of his work has been at LF and 1B, which isn't hard to replace at all. Looking at a potential 2019 lineup, without a utility player. Davis replaces Marwin, Reed replaces Gattis, Tucker replaces Marisnick. I don't think we will be this prospect heavy, just an example. C Stassi/Stubbs 1B Yuli/Davis/Reed 2B Altuve/Kemp/Bregman SS Correa/Bregman 3B Bregman/Davis/Yuli LF Reddick/Kemp CF Springer/Tucker RF Tucker/Reddick DH Reed It's extremely nice to have a safety valve like Marwin, but if he finishes this season strong, which I think he will, he will get 40-50 million from somebody in free agency. With money becoming an issue, that's a lot tied up in something nice, but not needed.
Agree. For example, the outfield glut of Kemp/Fisher/Ferguson/Straw/Tucker/Alvarez should probably be resolved in part by trade. Maybe you trade Stubbs, Fisher, Ferguson and a pitching prospect for the 2 years of control left on Realmuto's contract. I can definitely see the need for help in the bullpen.
Morton has been pretty clear he isn’t going much longer. We won’t likely tie up long term money, but a high dollar one year deal for him would be pretty easy. I say he is back If McCann wants to come back we will sign him for a year. I think the FO values his work with the pitchers much more than this board does Gattis I put at 50/50. I don’t think the FO just assumes Reed/White/Davis would be an easy replacement and moves on that easy. Now if someone wants to give him a multi year deal then he will be gone. Last years offseason tells me that isn’t likely, and if it is a 1 year 7 million type of deal our FO would do that before taking a risk that Davis or two guys who have failed at the MLB level could all the sudden get the job done DK is done, that’s Whitley’s spot. While Dallas might be liked in the clubhouse he is the one guy who has just never seemed “bought in” as a long term Astro. He has no problem rocking the boat, and with our pitching depth it all adds up to bye bye (regardless of what kind of contract he can get) Marwin is tough. His versatility makes all the days off Hinch likes to rotate guys through work. If he has a big 2nd half and commands a big contract, he is gone. If he stays “solid” as he has been this year, maybe we can afford him. Bregman has some versatility too though, and if Kemp proves for real he can at least give you two OF spots and 2B. I think Marwin is totally up in the air. I just don’t see us letting that many guys go at once off of back to back champions I think it’s Charlie, McCann for sure and possibly one more
Once you've had a beard like that for as long as he has, it's part of you. it's not something you can just get rid of. I don't even remember what my chin looks like. In 20 years of being together, my wife has seen my chin 1 time. Turns out, she didn't like it.
I think the FO sees Gurriel shifting to Marwin's utility role next season. They had planned to get him time around the diamond in the spring until he got hurt. If that is indeed the plan, it allows them to replace Marwin with a less versatile player, whether an internal option like White/Reed/Davis or a cheap trade/FA target who is just a middle of the order bat. Same for Gattis, really anyone can replace him as long as they can be a consistently good hitter. Offensively the main question is catcher; if they believe in Stassi as an everyday guy, it obviously reduces the need for an impact move to replace McCann. Rather than gut the farm or payroll for Realmuto or Grandal, they can bring in a backup, give Stubbs a shot, or bring back McCann in a lesser role. We can be certain that they have one prospect (Tucker) who they expect to be the next core piece, and room will be made for him. But they also have a slew of 45-50 grade prospects (or former prospects): Kemp, White, Reed, Davis, Fisher, Straw, Alvarez, Ferguson, and Rojas, all of whom are likely to be ready for the majors by next season or shortly thereafter. It's hard to believe they won't keep at least 1 spot open to take advantage of that depth. It's a very similar situation on the pitching side. They have a core piece (Whitley) who will almost certainly be in next season's opening day rotation. They have 2 guys in their bullpen (McHugh and Peacock) who would be MoR SP for at least 20 other teams. Finally, the pitching depth in the upper minors is insane; there are upwards of a dozen guys who project to be able to contribute to a big league team in the next 12 months: Martes, Paulino, Thornton, James, Dykxhoorn, Hoyt, Guduan, Gustave, C Perez, C Martin, Bostick, Alcala, Hartman, F Valdez, and on and on. Surely they will keep at least one spot open for auditions. I show payroll right at $150M next season without any extensions or free agent signings. Provided Houston makes the playoffs they should be able to sustain $175M+ over the next few years. So there is room to add, whether it be to extend Springer, Correa, or Bregman, or add from outside via free agency or trade. I've come to expect the unexpected from Luhnow, and to always expect them to be working to improve the team as long as it doesn't affect the long term outlook. I would guess that over the next 8 months they will work to add a proven bat, a lefty and/or late inning reliever, and a SP using their payroll flexibility and their prospect glut. I wouldn't expect them to trade for a superstar, but affordable players who have a flaw that underrates them. Their ability to develop prospects internally has put them in a good spot. Even if they solely relied on internal options and didn't sign any more players to extensions, they'll be a playoff favorite for at least the next 5 seasons.
