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2019 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Looks similar to KATOH. Hartman scored big for K%, BB%, and HRs. Rojas is a guy that scores big for K% and BB%, though a little light in power, BABIP.
     
  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    My guess is it’s mainly based on k%, bb%, age relative to league, and proximity to majors, for both pitchers and hitters. Houston obviously has a big focus on strikeouts (for both hitters and pitchers), which is why they show up so well on these lists.

    There a quite a few outfielders who sport great bb/k numbers and could break out next season: McCormick, Julks, Meyers, De La Cruz, Costes, Dennis, Machado. I am also starting to think Alex De Goti may have a major league future.
     
    #62 Snake Diggit, Jan 4, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2019
  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    My biggest problem with most prospect lists is that they don't appear to do any analytical modifications. For instance, Fangraphs has rated Miami's Diaz as a FV50 this offseason. Diaz has a high K rate without in game power or high BABIP. Fangraphs put Moncada as his floor. Moncada had the Ks but he smacked the crap out of the ball when he hit it indicated by high BABIP and ISO. Moncada, an average starter, should be viewed as an idealic ceiling that Diaz probably won't reach.
     
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  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    For folks looking for hype on the new additions to the farm from the JD Davis trade, I like this:

    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/...019-prospects-new-york-mets-top-10-prospects/

    Was written very recently by a reputable publication and has both Santana (11th) and Adolph (12th) as pretty good prospects. Adding those 2 to the projected Quad Cities roster makes it look a lot better. My current projected opening day minor league rosters:

    AAA:
    C: Stubbs, Ritchie
    IF: Reed, Rojas, De Goti, Tanielu, Mayfield
    OF: Tucker, Straw, Fisher, Alvarez, McCormick
    SP: Whitley, C Martin, Armenteros, C Perez, F Valdez, Rodgers
    RP: Bostick, J Ferrell, Guduan, Deetz, (3 optionable waiver claims)
    Extras (Intactive, Released, DL, etc.): Quintana, Jones, Nunez, Goetzman, Emanuel, Sneed, Garza McCurry

    AA:
    C: Robinson, Flores
    IF: Adams, Birk, A Sierra, Toro, Duarte
    OF: Wrenn, R Dawson, Julks, De La Cruz, Benedetti
    SP: Bukauskas, Bielak, Bailey, Ivey, Adcock, J Hernandez, LaRue, Hartman
    RP: C Sierra, Scheetz, Blanco, N Hernandez, Pinales
    Extras: Canelon, Marquez, Hiraldo, Y Ramirez, Winkelman, Feldmann

    High A:
    C: Manea, Papierski
    IF: Schreiber, M Sierra, Arauz, Shaver, T Dawson
    OF: Matijevic, McKenna, Beer, Costes, Meyers
    SP: B Abreu, Solomon, Javier, Saldana, Mushinski, Sanabria, H Paulino, Donato
    RP: Hardy, Castellanos, Collado, DeJuneas, G Valdez
    Extras: Angarita, Mattix, LaCroix, McKee, Paredes, Duncan, Rosado, E Sandoval

    A:
    C: Salazar, R Castro
    IF: Encarnacion, L Santana, J Pena, E Valdez, Wielansky, Dennis
    OF: Taylor, Adolph, Machado, Pineda
    SP: Deason, Freure, Hansen, Conine, L Rodriguez, L Garcia, Ruppenthal, Daniels
    RP: Bermudez, Moclair, France, Dubin
    DL: J Solis
    Extras: Campos, Holderbach, J Pineda, Hensley, Serrano, Henderson, Cabral, Conn, J Gonzalez, H Martin, Tejeda, Billingsly, House

    EST Notables:
    C: Perry, J Paulino, N Rodriguez, J Alvarez
    IF: Carrasco, Nova, Urdaneta, S Mendoza, J Castillo, Cueta, J Perez
    OF: W Abreu, J Ramirez, R Rodriguez, A Santana, Pinto, Y Carrillo, Mascai
    P: Schroeder, Macuare, M Ramirez, Jaquez, Robaina, E Rodriguez, Tokar, Jimenez, Oberto, Chavez, Torres, J Lopez
     
    #64 Snake Diggit, Jan 6, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2019
  5. prospecthugger

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    That's probably the best infield quad cities has seen since 2013 with Rio, Correa, and Kemp.
     
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  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    When you look at where these new prospects will fall in Houston’s org rankings, Santana is like an extra 2nd round pick (as he will be rated as highly as Schroeder), and Adolph an extra 3rd-5th rounder (comparable to Pena/McKenna/Deason. Solid return for a guy you drafted in the 3rd round a few years ago.
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    This comment spurred me to go look through some of the old minor league teams of the Luhnow era. That 2013 A ball team was probably the best infield they've had at that level. THat team also had Teoscar Hernandez on it. The 2015 A ball team featured Nottingham, Laureano, Ferguson, Fisher, and Bregman. Stubbs, Ferguson, Jason Martin, and Nick Tanielu were also on that team.

    The 2015 High A team had 6 future big leaguers in the lineup: Davis, Fisher, Reed, Phillips, Bregman, and Nottingham. Pretty salty.

    Probably the deepest team was the 2013 AA team with 8 future big leaguers: Enrique Hernandez, Domingo Santana, Springer, Stassi, Preston Tucker, Ronald Torreyes, Matt Duffy, and Carlos Perez.
     
  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Each of the players Houston just added ranked in the top 10 in wRC+ among qualified leaders in their league:

    Manea was 7th in the SAL; Manea ranked 23rd in wRC+ among ALL qualified catchers across the entire minor leagues.
    Adolph was 4th in the NYPL; Kyle Tucker was the only qualified Astros prospect in the system to post a wRC+ higher than Adoph's 147.
    Santana was 7th in the Appy League; of note, Santana was a better hitter in that league than his teammate Jarred Kelenic, the Top 100 prospect who was the headliner in the Cano trade.
     
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  9. HTown2017Champs

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    Lovin' this trade! Gonna miss JD, but he really had no place on our 25 man roster, glad he'll get much deserved playing time, and also glad to see us restock our farm with what look to be some good hidden gems. And, lastly, thank you JD especially for the 3-run homer at Yankee Stadium that led us to a win! Good luck in New York!
     
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  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I wrote a blurb on (almost) every position player prospect in Houston's system who isn't on the current mlb.com top 30; these are listed in order of how they came out of a rough stat analysis model I built:

     
    #70 Snake Diggit, Jan 15, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
  11. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Still Believes in Jonathan Villar
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    sorry for the politics and stuff

     
  12. Marteen

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    Good article read if you have a subscription.


     
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  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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  14. moonsh0t

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    No Worries and Snake Diggit like this.
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Pretty healthy system for a team expected to win 100+ games. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees won't have a single prospect on the BA Top 100 (which was also released today).

    I"m hoping 2nd tier guys like Beer, Nova, Santana, Toro, Dawson, Abreu, Schroeder, and Ivey can take big jumps this season, since there's a good chance all 5 of the BP Top 101 Astros prospects will graduate this season.
     
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  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Baseball America released its Top 100:

    Whitley 5
    Tucker 12
    Alvarez 34
    James 77
    Martin 78

    The BA guy (Kyle Glaser) also said on twitter that JB Bukauskas was just off the list and will very likely be added once there are some graduations. So Houston has 6 of the Top 110.
     
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  17. sealclubber1016

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    It's strange seeing Josh James getting so much recognition now. Not that I disagree with it, just weird timing.

    He was basically working with the same stuff at mid season last year and he wasn't appearing on any national lists. It seems like his performance at the major league level was when he started getting attention.

    James,Valdez,Whitley,Bukauskas,Martin,Armenteros. It's quite the impressive group of potential arms. Also the reason I don't want to invest much in a starter unless it's an impact guy.
     
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  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I know I was late to the James party. Until I saw him pitch for Houston I thought he was a middle reliever at best. But he has Aroldis Chapman level stuff. Despite the volume of high ceiling young arms I still think it’d be worth it for them to bring in an old vet for a couple million to eat some innings so they can be sure they won’t have to rush anybody.
     
    #78 Snake Diggit, Jan 23, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019
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  19. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Astros have 5 of the 15 AL West prospects in BAs Top 100. Astros continue to have the best AL West team as well as having the best long term outlook in the division.

    On James, I'm not sure if BA understands the value of 27.2 high quality MLB innings. His xFIP true talent level appears to be between 2.40 and 4.30 xFIP with 95% confidence based on that sample size using Fangraphs's sample size tool. In other words, he's probably a major league player, but we don't know how good yet. The 77th best prospect as a pitcher has about a 50% chance of being a major leaguer.

    Edit: I do understand that placing James is difficult as he improved greatly last year and is very different than most of the ranked prospects.
     
    #79 Joe Joe, Jan 23, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019
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  20. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    Completely agree with this point. I'm fine rolling with this group until they prove that they're not capable of holding down those last couple spots in the rotation. Don't see any advantage of trading for a guy like Alex Cobb compared to those guys you mentioned.
     
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