1st 2 innings good, then it went all to **** from what I just saw. I was out at San Saba again this weekend with nothing but local radio (classic country), it was glorious and I recommend it to clear your head from time to time. Doesn't sound like I missed much other than Greinke's start yesterday.
Come on. Most second round picks don't produce 2 WAR for a career and you want to use that as a metric for a single season. For greater than 2 WAR for a career, that's Top 50 picks. Considering the low bar, if one did an aggregate of all picks outside the Top 50 for the Astros from 2012 through 2015, it wouldn't look bad at all, IMO. Mengden and Thornton are much more valuable than the picks spent on them and they still have plenty of time left. Astros have drafted 5 in Appel, Eshelman, Aiken, LMJ, and Thurman from 2012 through 2015 in the Top 50. Anything after 2015 is way too soon to make a call. Appel and Aiken used a resource worth about 10 WAR each. Picks for LMJ, Eshelman, and Thurman are worth about 10 WAR combined. Using fWAR, LMJ probably is worth the aggregate of value of the picks used for LMJ, Eshelman, and Thurman. From what I can tell, Appel and Aiken is probably worth more than half of the draft resources the Astros spent from 2012-2015. Appel is a bust. Aiken, while Astros didn't sign him and develop him into a pitcher, but picking him has turned out to be incredibly lucky for the Astros. I tend to only count Appel against Astros as no way of Astros knowing Aiken had a tiny UCL and it turned out great anyway. Astros record is probably 10 fWAR down of what is expected from 2012-2015. 20 if you count Aiken, but don't count that his pick lead to Bregman. LMJ could still shave a little off of this. 10 fWAR is a lot, but it is one pitcher. If only the Astros drafted someone in 2016 that has potential to be worth his pick and erase that deficit all by himself provided he re-learns how to hit the broadside of a barn..... I tend to think of it as Astros messed up on drafting Appel, and that it is too early to make a determination one way or the other of Astros development system in the minors. Sadly, I expect the narrative is going to come down to how Whitley pitches.
Everyone missed on Appel. Everyone missed on Aiken (Luhnow was right how he handled it, despite getting roasted for it at the time).
Javier is a down curve, floating slider pitcher with a below average fastball and an improving change up. Unless he has changed a lot in the last 7-8 months, he will be lucky to hit 90-91. He can really mess up hitters with his command and movement when he has the change up going.
Great take. Developing top of the rotation starters is incredibly hard. Expecting pitchers taken after the top 2 rounds to be more than BoR SP or middle relievers is unrealistic. And even of the top 2 rounds I think a 25% success rate (of turning into ToR SP) is good. Here’s Luhnow’s sample with the Astros: McCullers: turned into a very solid #3, flashes of more, but hasn’t thrown enough innings. Appel: bust, some salvaged value via trades for Giles/Osuna Thurman: bust, some salvaged value via Gattis/Hoyt/DeJuneas Aiken: bust, but essentially traded for Bregman, so huge win Eshelman: still developing but provided value via Giles/Osuna trades Whitley: TBD Bukauskas: TBD provided value via Greinke Martin: TBD provided value via Greinke Schroeder: TBD Based on that sample, Appel is probably where most of the negativity regarding Luhnow’s pitcher development comes from. And that blame is deserved; missing on a 1st overall pick is a big deal. If Whitley pans out most of that will go away; if he busts, it will get louder (unless multiple lower drafted prospects exceed expectations and turn into ToR guys).
I had breakfast recently with someone that works with the Astros farm system out in the cornfields of Illinois where he resides and he didn't say much but said the Astros are mostly impressed with their middle infielders..... he specifically mentioned Jeremy Pena, Luis Santana and Jonathan Arauz as players that have a chance to be pretty good. They really like Pena's bat and power potential. Said Santana has all the tools to be special defensively in the infield and said the hand eye coordination for Santana is special and they think Arauz can hit for 20+ homers a season in the big leagues. The other name mentioned was Colin Barber. Said that he has special bat speed and while he is a far way off, the Astros value him quite highly.
Can any of them stick at SS though? Thought Santana was strictly 2B, for example. I've heard Barber mentioned around here a few times, what's the story with him?
Barber is the 4th round pick that got 1st round money. HS kid with super bat speed and high ceilings across all his tools. Probably vying with Freudis Nova for highest ceiling prospect in the system behind Tucker/Whitley. Potential 30/20 threat who can play passable CF. He’s had a good start to his pro career and it jibes with his profile: k rate a little higher than you’d like but the batted ball profile reflects his special bat, and he will likely add power as he moves up.
Good to hear about Santana. His power dropped this year. I actually would have liked to have seen him stay in AA; he wasn’t struggling there and I think he could’ve gotten more consistent playing time. In TC there were too many guys vying for innings in that infield.
Yes. What I was told is that he hasn't played baseball long. He played soccer a lot and that he was an extremely good boxer. He is small (like 5'6") but he can draw walks easily, likely develops extra base power later because he has very strong wrists from boxing and he has plus bat speed. He is barely 20 years old but the bat speed and reflexes are well beyond that. His problems are mostly mechanical and they are working on that. The concern is that he could gain some weight and really be limited to second base. if he can stay slim he can be a very good middle infielder. High on base potential with a high average and gap power with enough homers to keep his OPS up high enough to be a weapon. Supposedly the METS were concerned about him losing speed when he fills out.
Is 5'6" the official height of everyone shorter than 5'6"? I saw this quote once (horribly paraphrased) and it made me laugh..."Is this 5'6"Jose Altuve the same Jose Altuve that was 5'4" last week"
He told me that he is pretty damn small. There are some videos out there if you want to see him take come cuts. He looks especially short in the batters box because he crouches. The Astros have taken some of his bat movement and kick out of his stance but he still goes up there trying to barrel the ball to all fields. I'm over 6'5" so I am not the best at judging height but if someone told me he was shorter than 5'6" I wouldn't bat an eye...... he is just really compact.
This is good info, hadn't heard about the boxing, one of the best ways to strengthen your hands/wrists. Talk to Luhnow and make it a part of the DSL/GCL training regimen? And no, @Joe Joe, that dude in the vid is not 5'6", he's shorter.
I haven't pitched in over 20 years.... college was as far as I got.... however I will say this, I would not want to face a guy that small, in a crouch that can hit fastballs well and can draw walks...... extremely frustrating.
There isn't much on Bellozo but there is very recent footage for you. I have some from a friend but it isn't carrying over from my computer for some reason.
That's when you bust out the 'trouble ball', the breakingest, slowest softball ephus curve you can manage. Catcher catches it on the ground with his glove upturned. "Strike 2". Then you hope one of your guys can catch what he does with the next fastball. Or then go back to the junk.
