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2018 AL West Race and AL Races

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by marks0223, Jul 27, 2018.

  1. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    I wish the Yankees could take at least one game from the A's...

    Houston I hope can win two out of three against Boston this weekend.
     
  2. cescobar327

    cescobar327 Member

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    We should have won the home series 3-1. But then Harris blew Verlander's gem.
     
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  3. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros 2017 Champions
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    4 games up in the loss column feels good.
     
  4. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    So it looks like the A's will come away with two wins from the Yankees series. The A's are four games back in the lost column with the Astros heading into the Boston series. I would love nothing more for Houston to come away with two wins this weekend. The Astros IMO can't afford to lose all three games with the A's playing the Rangers. Houston will have all of their players back this weekend with the exception of McCullers. It's going to be a fun weekend for sure.

    Fan Graphs has Houston finishing with 101 wins this season and the A's at 95. I just have to think the A's rotation is going to catch up to them at some point right?
     
  5. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    I also don't see the Yankees winning a wild card game at all.
     
  6. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    I think the Yankees could lose home field advantage to the A's or Astros for the wild card game. The Yankees have 6 games left with Boston, 4 games on the road against Tampa Bay, and 3 more games against the Blue Jays. Blue Jays tend to play the Yankees pretty tough.

    The A's have the easier schedule left among Houston and the Yankees IMO. You could argue Houston does after Arizona and Seattle because Houston only has 6 division games left whereas the A's have 9 games left. Division games can always be tough unless you're playing the Rangers... I think the Angels would love nothing more to give the A's a few losses.

    Bottom line, the A's are going to try and win as many games as they can right now. They have the most to gain from it simply because of home field advantage either in the wild card game or the division. I hate to bring up the past but getting swept by the Rangers and Seattle really killed this team. Doesn't hurt the two games where the MLBreview totally screwed Houston.
     
  7. Nippystix

    Nippystix Member

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    Bold strategy Cotton.
     
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  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    You gotta think their rotation will catch up with them. I believe Mengden is now hurt. Fiers, Cahill, Jackson, Montas, and Bassitt...there’s not a single guy in that group who should be better than a #4 for a playoff team. Their lineup and bullpen are tremendous but no way they should be able to catch Houston with those SP.
     
  9. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    They are within 2 games for the wildcard lead. NYY lead by 5 10 games ago. A's closing that gap big time.

    Fiers maybe a #4, but he is 5-0 with a ERA in the mid twos since going to the A's. Like last year with us, when the staff gets injured, Fiers pitches his best.
     
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  10. sealclubber1016

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    If somebody would have asked me to bet on the prospects of a team going down the the stretch with Mike Fiers, Edwin Jackson, and Trevor Cahill as their 3 best pitchers, I would have lost a lot of f**king money.

    Their starters have a 4.37 FIP, our starters have a 3.32 FIP. We've also scored more runs, and yet we can't shake them. It's getting aggravating.
     
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  11. Amshirvani

    Amshirvani Contributing Member
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    Like Nick mentioned in another post, imagine their frustration from their perspective.
    They were banking on making up real ground with us playing at Boston
     
  12. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    That team will get superiored by the Sox or Stros at some point.
     
  13. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    Yankees have a one game lead now over the A's.... Not looking good for the Yankees.
     
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  14. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    When I look at or try to predict how a one game playoff should go, at least on paper, NYY should be the favorite.

    But the A's knocked Severino (NYY best starter?) out of the game in 2.2 innings last time they faced him and tagged him for 4 runs in the first inning alone.

    If I was a betting man, I wouldn't dare bet against the A's. They have been odds defying all season. Nearly every metric says they are overachieving and should regress to the norm but they haven't.

    They definitely get my vote for baseballs 2018 Cinderella team.
     
  15. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    By metric, I'm guessing what you really mean is your own expectations? The A's are playing above their Pythagorean expectation by about 5 games, yes - but even after making that adjustment, they'd still be on pace to win 91 games.

    And the +5 variance is likely heavily rooted in their 28-12 record in one-run games. Having said that, they have a TREMENDOUS bullpen, and while one-run success tends to mostly be random, there is some data to suggest a great bullpen can *increase* a team's chances of winning one-run games.

    They almost certainly have players that are overachieving - but *every* team that wins that much has a few (cough'17Marwincough; cough'17Reddickcough - sorry, something is apparently stuck in my throat).

    I think the A's are legitimately good in 2018, and I'd be straight-up terrified if I were the Yankees. And, frankly, I wouldn't be terribly thrilled if I were Boston, either (although I suspect the Red Sox will handle them). Careful what you wish for, and all - but I'd much rather draw Cleveland than Oakland in the postseason.
     
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  16. sealclubber1016

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    Their starting pitching is not good, or at least it shouldn't be. They are using league average starters, and journeyman that have been on multiple organizations in the past year. On top of the unrepeatable record in one runs games.

    Over 162 I still would feel there is no chance a team with the starters they have could win 100 games, but it may happen this season. Baseball is weird that way.

    Not that I think they are a bad team, they are legit good. They just have no business winning this much IMO.
     
    #76 sealclubber1016, Sep 13, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2018
  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    This. Cleveland is lucky that they are in the AL Central.
     
  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    There are only 4 teams with easily better pitching staffs (starters and rotation) in the AL. There is a large gap between the haves and have nots in pitching in the AL. Offense has been great, especially lately. Defense has been helping save half a run each game which helps average starters and journeymen look good.

    The luck the A's have had has made the AL West look close. Take out the luck, and they are probably in a dogfight for one of the wild cards with the Yankees and Rays. Poor Rays. They are sneaky good once again only to get pounded by Yankees and Red Sox. A's are a step down in talent from the Astros and Red Sox, but they are good.
     
  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I looked at a preview for the A's game tonight, and was excited to see the O's ace Dylan Bundy is starting, and then I noticed his ERA.

    Dylan Bundy has given up 56 runs (53 earned) in his last 54 IP. A 1.053 OPS allowed in those 11 starts. Basically, he makes everyone look like a team of Mike Trouts.
     
  20. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Rays have actually held their own v Boston & New York (16-18) - in fact, they're 28-27 v (likely) playoff teams, including season series wins v Cleveland, Houston, New York and Oakland.

    Unfortunately, they're a combined 13-12 v the Orioles and White Sox. Beat those two teams at the same clip as the rest of baseball, and they'd be four games back of Oakland (instead of nine) and this three-game series with the A's would be make-or-break. Still a big series - sweep it and you've got a chance...
     
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