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2018 AL West Race and AL Races

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by marks0223, Jul 27, 2018.

  1. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros 2017 Champions
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    Let's talk about the teams in the AL West Division race, AL race for the best record, and playoff seeding going down the stretch.

    For the division, Seattle still hovering around at 5 games back. Oakland with an impressive run stands just 6 games back. Still think the Astros win the division by 10+ games or will we have ourselves a battle to the end for the division title?

    Astros have been sitting in the #2 seed for most of the year. Considering how good the Wild Card teams may be, the #2 seed may have the easier road to the WS. So, do we even want the #1 seed?
     
  2. Rockets FTW

    Rockets FTW Member

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    Play to win and let the rest work itself out. I personally want homefield throughout playoffs. And Indians could roll out Kluber, Bauer, etc. Can't be picking and choosing who you play. Bad karma.
     
    marks0223 likes this.
  3. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Member

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    I think winning the AL West will be nearly certain, but I do want the #1 seed. I think the Yankees win the wild card by pitching Severino, leaving them very short on quality starting pitching heading into the ALDS (or similarly with the Mariners or A's with their respective aces). The Indians are still very risky in a 5-game serious given their pitching and a few hitters who could get hot. I'd rather have the advantage of facing a partially depleted wild card team.
     
    marks0223 likes this.
  4. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    13 Games against SEA
    6 games against OAK
    3 games against Texas
    10 games against LAA

    13 games against sub .500 teams not in the division
    3 games against BOS
    10 games against teams above .500 - NL teams

    So in a nutshell we have 58 games left with 32 games against our division. Key here IMO is to win at least 20 games against your division which will bring your record to at least 87 wins. If you split the rest of your games left against everyone else, that should put Houston at 100 wins. Fangraphs has Houston winning at least 103 games.

    Health is going to be key. Correa is out and we don't have a real clue of when he plans to be back. It's going to be a fun ride.
     
    marks0223, texans1095 and SLRokJok like this.
  5. Buck Turgidson

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    I'm pretty certain that the Stros either will or will not make the postseason.
     
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  6. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    Really going out on a limb with that prediction
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Total guess here but I think Houston currently has a 98.2% of winning the division, a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, and a 23.2% chance of winning the World Series.
     
  8. Buck Turgidson

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    Let me know when they clinch the postseason.
     
  9. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros 2017 Champions
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    99.8% of making playoffs after tonights game
     
  10. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Unlike the NL, in the AL, its 6 teams alive for 5 playoff spots. One of Sea or the A's will miss the playoffs.

    Seeding and/or home field advantage isnt determined yet, but interestingly the Astros are the only team of those 6 that plays better on the road than at home.

    As things are, I am fine with the #2 seed. Much rather see the Indians in the ALDS than the Yanks/Red Sox. It also would be fun to watch the Yanks and Red Sox beat up each other in the ALDS.

    Looking like a Red Sox / Astros series for the ALCS.
     
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  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Do you have some stats to back that up?

    :)
     
  12. Buck Turgidson

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    History is on my side.
     
  13. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros 2017 Champions
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    Astros, A's, and Mariners combined for a 1 and 8 record over the weekend.
     
  14. mkahanek

    mkahanek Member
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    I am not sure how to look at strength of schedule, but has anyone done that or is there a site that shows that? To me it seems like Oakland, the Mariners and the Stros all have about the same schedule. A quick look:

    Oakland has 6 at home against the rangers, and 3 on the road against Baltimore. The Mariners have TEN more against the Rangers and a 3 game home set against Baltimore. The only layup I see for us is Baltimore. Granted The Mariner's and A's will play each other 10 more times so they can go and beat each other up. Overall it seems we have the harder schedule from here on out. We are going to have to get that edge back. Along with our infield.
     
  15. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    The Red Sox and Yankees have split (5-5) their 10 games so far. Just what we wanted, right?

    edit: 5 of these games are in blowout (>7 runs) fashion. When these guys get together, they really get after it. Maybe the best rivalry in baseball?
     
    #15 jim1961, Aug 3, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2018
  16. Buck Turgidson

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  17. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros 2017 Champions
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    A walk off for a 1st MLB hit...

     
  18. Senator

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    With Severino going off the rails, the Yankees will be a treat to face in the wild card game. Whether it's the As or Astros.
     
  19. AznH-TownFan

    AznH-TownFan Member

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    I, for once, glad we don’t have anymore games against the rangers after last weekend s**t show.
     
    cescobar327 likes this.
  20. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    The Astros are looking more likely to face the Indians in the ALDS. I'll update tonight where Houston stands after the Dodger game.
     
    cescobar327 likes this.
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