If a guy strikes out a lot in college, high chance he'll strike out a lot at the next level. I'd pass on him.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My first stab at a mock draft for 2017: <a href="https://t.co/xDOF9hlZ2q">https://t.co/xDOF9hlZ2q</a></p>— johnsickels (@MinorLeagueBall) <a href="">May 18, 2017</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Sickels has the Stros taking Seth Romero while passing on Hiura and Shane Baz. I just don't see how they could go with a guy who can't even stick on college baseball team.
Agree with that sentiment. But the question is how much can you get the K-rate down? If he didn't have the contact/strikeout flaw he'd be a top 3 pick if not top overall (in this pretty weak appearing draft).
Not a huge fan of Kendall. I know a guy can always improve his swing and miss tendencies, but for a college guy (when college guys are supposed to be lower ceiling and higher floor) to be considered in the top 15 of the draft you need to have had incredible success at the college level. Kendall has obviously had success at Vanderbilt, but it's not very often that you see college guys who hit under .300 and struck out as much as he has be drafted as high as #15. If you're gonna go the college route with a top 20 pick (a route that has been successful because college hitters/pitchers tend to be able to move through a system quicker than HS guys) you need to take a guy that you're nearly certain can move through your system quickly (someone like Keston Hiura). I also don't really like the position fit for Kendall. I know you can never have enough talent at any given position, but Shane Baz, David Peterson from Oregon (a couple of really electric arms) are more appealing to me.
You also don't typically get much further upside with college players either. Kendall is "falling" on mock drafts because of a real flaw, but if he fixes or at least mitigates it, he's a 4.5 or 5 tool player with high level college experience and success. Those are rare players. The Stros also have no need to push him/any other college bat either. There's plenty of useful OFers in the high minors already. Heck you could argue every position on the field is currently blocked except for LF. Baz seems like a Whitley type to me. Texas fireballer with potentially advanced feel for age. Absolutely nothing wrong with taking another guy like that. Like high minors OFers, there's already a ton of top RHP in the system so he wouldn't need to be rushed either. Peterson fills a definite need in the system, but I haven't been as impressed with scouting descriptions of his stuff as much as his stats would convey.
Should have clarified. I'm not high on Kendall but I hope they go college bat. Hiura and Burger are my favorites (of the guys who could still be around).
That's a good point. Kendall's upside is definitely one of the highest of the college position players. It'll be interesting to see which direction they choose to go!
This is a weak draft. Whenever you can get a player at 15 as good as at #, is just not top heavy at all. Greene has gotten some Buxton comparisons, that would scare me drafting him number #1. McKay has slow down lately & Wright is too inconsistent. Those are the top 3 players!
My guess is, they know that this is their last real "good" draft with any sort of reasonable pool amount for a while. So what they'll try to do is bet on a ton of high upside prospects that are not close to contributing. That way they can let their farm system continue to steadily churn out talent, and potential all-star talent at that, while the team is on its 3-5 year run of dominance. And they won't be bogged down by a bunch of college players who turn into AAAA players like White / Kemp / Moran / Reed, knocking on the door but having no place to go and losing value in the process.
My thought exactly. It's rare that the high upside high school players fall to the late 20's (where we will likely be drafting the next few years) unless they fall due to a strong college commitment (with a pick in the late 20's you're not going to have the ability to offer a high enough dollar amount to convince guys to skip out on college ball). So, you might as well take advantage of having access to those high upside guys in the middle of the 1st round for one last year. Obviously there is some risk to draft high school players in the first round, but Luhnow and Elias and Co. have proven with Tucker and now Whitley that they have done a good job of scouting HS players. I think going after a HS arm (if Baz or Hall or Gore were to be there at #15) gives you the best potential to inject another elite prospect into this system that is very deep with high floor lower upside college players.
Passan mentioned that Luis Robert is close to making his decision, and it could be as early as tomorrow. Boy...I would be sky high if we came away with Robert! Adding Robert would surely alter our draft strategy. I would assume Tucker also gets traded if that's the case, though this is all premature speculation on my end.
The price to get him is supposed to be about $25,000,000 and then another $25,000,000 in the penalty. The Padres have the money to easily go above any beyond the total $50,000,000 cost and at this point seem resigned to letting him go elsewhere. The White Sox and Cardinals seem to be the most aggressive, but I cannot tell you how much of that is that they have ownership demanding a restocked farm system and how much of it is that they feel that Robert is a special talent. My point being, that IF the Astros really think that he is a future all start/Hall of Fame talent, they have the resources to get him signed. If he signs for a total cost of $50,000,000 and the Astros pass... that gives you an idea of what they feel about his ability. Supposedly he has already decided on where he will sign.
Yup. In Luhnow I trust. I'd love to land Robert--not just from a talent perspective--but also because we have no chance of landing Otani. Aren't the foreign free agency rules changing soon? This may be the last big fish we can get without competing with the major spenders.
Right. It's one reason I pay attention to bonuses so much when setting my starting point for evaluating prospects. Luhnow knows the most, and if he thinks a guy is worth top dollar, it's a good sign. If they really do end up shelling out $50M+ for Robert, I will take that as a clear sign that Luhnow thinks he's a MLB Top 20 type prospect, and will set the starting point for my expectations accordingly.
Here's a quick summary of the most recent mocks for the Astros pick at 15: Perfect Game (5/10/17): RHP Sam Carlson, Burnsville HS ESPN/Keith Law (5/11/17): LHP David Peterson, Oregon MLB.com/Jim Callis (5/12/17): 3B Jake Buerger, Missouri State Hero Sports (5/12/17): OF Adam Haseley, UVA MLB.com/Jonathan Mayo (5/18/17): RHP Shane Baz, Concordia Lutheran HS Baseball America (5/18/17): OF Jeren Kendall, Vanderbilt MinorLeagueBall.com/John Sickels (5/18/17): LHP Seth Romero, no program College bats, prep righties or question mark college lefties (peterson: upside, Romero: personality).
Yes, and the same for Springer. But both Bryant and Springer reined in the strikeouts during their junior years. Kendall hasn't. Bryant- 66 walks/44 strikeouts in 294 plate appearances, 15% strikeout rate Springer- 36 walks/38 strikeouts in 273 plate appearances, 14% strikeout rate Kendall- 23 walks/64 strikeouts in 246 plate appearances so far, 26% strikeout rate
