What are your expectations for the 2017 Astros? Will Altuve have another 200 hit season? Will Correa finally break out after an amazing WBC performance? Will Bregman and Gurriel progress in the right direction? Will the FA veterans Beltran, Reddick, and McCann put us over the top? Will Kuechel return to his 2015 form? Can McCullers give us 25-30 starts? When will Martes come up and will he contribute to the playoff push? Will Lunhow make a big trade at the deadline?
I think that it will be tough to beat the Red Sox or Indians in a possible ALCS unless we grab another quality starter. We might have the best lineup in the AL, but Boston and Cleveland definitely have better starting pitching. I would love to see Correa have a .280+ BA, 30+ HRs, and 100+ RBIs. He is fully capable and has been a monster in the World Baseball Classic.
I think, since it's not even April yet, that we should tap the breaks on talking about the ALCS. Team-wise, my most urgent goal is to see them even the playing field with Texas. Do that and we can strike up a conversation about the postseason. In August.
I expect Houston to finish with one of the three best records in the AL and to win the West. I am skeptical they have the top end pitching to reach the WS ahead of Boston or Cleveland, but there are tons of scenarios where they go all the way, whether through over performance of in-house options or trading for a top pitcher. Individually, in the rotation I'm very high on McCullers, and I'm starting to see very high ceilings for Morton and Musgrove. I'm a little worried about Keuchel and McHugh. I'm high on virtually all of the bullpen arms, even the guys who will start in AAA. Houston could very well have the best bullpen in baseball. On the position player front, I think the depth of the lineup will result in a big jump for a lot of guys. I think Gurriel, McCann, Gattis, and Reddick hitting at the bottom of the order will result in some very productive seasons from them. Bregman and Correa could also take big steps forward (Correa into MVP territory and Bregman into All-Star territory) having Beltran in the mix. I don't see any way Altuve can top what he has done the last 2 seasons. Looking at the projected AAA roster it's hard not to predict a meaningful trade. Too much high ceiling talent that appears to be major league ready.
Win the division and go from there. MLB playoffs are a crapshoot so just put yourself in the best position possible and hope to catch the breaks in the postseason.
I expect the offense to be good enough to take us as far as we want to go. If we fail, starting Pitching will be the culprit. Let me break down the rest into 3 sections: EXPECTATIONS: - Make it to the ALDS - Go .500 or better vs the Rangers - Top 5 offense HOPES: - Make it to the ALCS - Go 15-4 vs the Rangers (payback) - Top 3 offense - Top 10 Pitching staff FEARS: - Miss the playoffs (again) - Get dominated by the Rangers (again) - Pitching staff becomes a clusterf*ck due to injuries and bad performances - Beltran runs out of gas
Will Altuve have another 200 hit season? YES Will Correa finally break out after an amazing WBC performance? Define breakout.. but YES, OPS > .850 across a season as a minimum Will Bregman and Gurriel progress in the right direction? Bregman YES; Gurriel will improve, but will hover in average-player land Will the FA veterans Beltran, Reddick, and McCann put us over the top? YES, though Reddick will be a part-time player--so not necessarily meeting expectations vs. contract. And Beltran will play well / not as good as last year, but a lot of his value will bei n the clubhouse Will Kuechel return to his 2015 form? NO, but he'll be halfway between '15 and '16 Can McCullers give us 25-30 starts? NO. I think he'll hit 150 innings, and I hope he's healthy for the playoffs. When will Martes come up and will he contribute to the playoff push? He'll come up on and off during the season starting in July, but he won't contribute much aside from hot-and-cold spot starts and playoff relief appearances Will Lunhow make a big trade at the deadline? YES. #1 or #2 SP acquired to anchor the rotation with Keuchel and LMJ.
I like your setup, so I'll do the same: Expectations: AL West Championship; ALCS appearance; Correa goes bonkers, 90r/30hr/100rbi/20 doubles/10sb/.275 avg Hopes: LMJ turns into Roy O 2.0, Kuechel regains dominance, defense returns to elite status, Yuli provides Moises Alou-esque dividends with Sean Berry versatility Fears: Altuve regresses; our bullpen falters; unlucky record in 1 run games; Tal's Hill removal hurts Kuechel; overall SP rotation regression without remedy on market or farm
