2017 Astros Minor League Thread

Any update on what Singleton did? Hippie Lettuce again?

 

Fergalicous (sorry) ready for AAA; hard to get too excited about a guy who's almost 25 in AA.

 

The Astros have been very disciplined about keeping silent on why players get suspended. Thus, we may never know.

 

He didn't leave any doritos for the rest of the team.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-525/
Here's a small blurb on this season's catcher of the future, Jake Rogers in the 25th 21st Century

And all that in a rain-shortened, five-inning game. Rogers has been swinging and missing a lot since his recent promotion to High-A, but he went bonkers last night. He does have some bat speed and might run into a dozen annual homers if his excellent glove earns him an everyday job.

 

10 K's in 27 PA's is a lot but small sample size much Longenhagan?

Interesting that Rogers is actually pretty much doing what the scouting Longenhagan's scouting report said. While I think we'd all say he's hitting better than expected, Fangraphs had him as a 45/50 raw power, 20/40 game power guy. 12 hr is the high-end of 40 game power according to Fangraphs' scouting scale break down.

 

On sample size, his K% regresses to 29% for 60 at bats or 26% for 120 at bats. Either number is not good. As such, even though it is a small sample size, it is bad enough that it is very likely to be bad even once he gets to an appropriate sample size.

Edit: I should have said plate appearances instead of at bats.

 

Yea Rogers definitely has contact issues, but we knew that. He's pretty much playing out the way the scouting reports said he would.

 

For good or bad, it is beneficial to verify what we know in case things change or we are flat out wrong. While 27 at bats usually isn't enough to say much about a batter....a 37% K% in 27 at bats is sufficient to confirm that Rogers still has contact problems and is noteworthy.

 

Debatable. I wouldn't be surprised if more than a few players run into 37% strikeout rates over 27 PA's; its just not enough data. There's the seminal paper on how long it takes for numbers to stabilize. (Link). K-rate stabilizes around 150 PA's. I'd place a tipjar bet that he's not going to finish at 37%.

 

If you look up above, I regressed the stats to the mean for 60 PAs and 120 PAs to get 29% and 26%....which are still bad. So, I am not saying 37%, but that using standard regression techniques...it is bad enough that one should treat it the same or worse than 29% in 60 PAs and 26% in 120 PAs.

Also, Pizza Cutter has revised his work since that piece and has revised it to 60 PAs for K Rate. Fangraphs summarizes it here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/.

This was my basis for regressing to 60 (reasonable regression) and 120 PAs (overkill regression). Stats don't magically become relevant at a stabilization point. The closer a player's true talent level is to average, the longer it takes to get a read on his ability in regards to whether he is qualitatively good or bad. It is harder to get a good read on the more extreme players on about how good or bad they are, but it is usually easier to spot whether they are qualitatively good or bad. Rogers is likely going to have K Rate about or over 29% at the stabilization point. His season K rate in A+ will likely be close to or greater than 26%.

 

Very nice work.

I won't be surprised if his K rate is still hot garbage at 60 PA's or 120 PA's.

 

He's an interesting follow. Great numbers but Longenhagen has said his stuff is barely passable by a MLB starter standards and that his results thus far are due to deception in his delivery.