2017 Astros Minor League Thread

Brett Wallace...

 

John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall posted a top 20 overall prospects September update yesterday: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/9/3/16185424/top-20-mlb-prospects-september-2017

Forrest Whitley ranks 12 and in the notes John says: "I think you can make a case for Whitley for the top pitching prospect ahead of Kopech."

I bet he'll reach 100IP for the Astros next season. What a crazy ascent through the minors.

 

A few crazy things...
-- We'll see the role of these new international caps soon. Well over half of that list came from international signings
-- By my count, 7 of those guys have been traded already (and that was just eye balling the list).

 

Only list lately that I've seen without Tucker in Top 20.

 

.378 BABIP. Best season from an Astro minor league SP I've seen in a long time.

 

Whitley & Tucker are both top 20 baseball prospects if not higher. They both should be with the major league team (Houston Astros) by next Summer at the latest. After trades and graduations, the Houston Astros farm system is thinner. No longer a top 5 farm system it was before the Verlander trade. It's probably top 12 now. But the Astros still have 4 high end all star quality prospects in Tucker, Whitley, Alvarez & JB. I'm extremely HIGH on Alvarez now. What he did in the minors this year was great. When Tucker and Whitley graduate to the majors next season, Alvarez and JB will lead the Houston Astros farm system, next. By then, the Houston Astros farm system would be sort of a shell of itself, but respectful nevertheless considering how Luhnow and co. can find talent pretty often if it's via draft, international signings, trades or via rule 5 draft. Plus, it's a nice trade off when the Astros have a great shot in winning their first championship or championships in the future with the current core.

 

Write up on Catching prospect Chuckie Robinson

http://therunnersports.com/pride-chuckie-astros-harboring-scary-catching-prospect-chuckie-robinson/

I think this guy may be a sleeper. 15 home runs, threw out 41% of attempted base stealers. Hopefully he builds on this season, he has the most upside of our remaining catchers now that Rogers is gone (unless you count Toro)

 

I agree with all this. At this point Houstons farm is above average but no longer elite. They may trade away 1-2 good prospects to acquire a lefty reliever this offseason but I don't want to see them lose any more prospects outside of that. The good thing is that they should have very few needs over the next 2-3 years and can hopefully continue to replace what they lose. When you consider the # of guys they have graduated and traded away in the last 2 years it's pretty incredible:

Graduated:
Reed
White
Moran
Davis
Kemp
Bregman
Fisher
Rodgers
Musgrove
Martes
Paulino
Hoyt
Gustave
Guduan
Devenski
Jankowski

Traded:
Cameron
F Perez
Rogers
Teoscar
Appel
Velasquez
H Arauz
Eshelman
A Abreu
J Guzman

 

A 19 year old pitcher advancing all the way to AA putting up those numbers is damn impressive.

 

I'm not sure Astros farm system is still above average and if it is it is slightly above average. Astros got some great years from Tucker, Whitley, and Alvarez, but didn't really have anyone else step up (not counting 2017 draftees). Astros system seems to be a donut...some great prospects at top that won't be traded, a lot of depth for potential backups/releivers, but is missing the good prospects. I'm hoping Astros have some guys have great years next season as it looks like it may be a while after Tucker and Whitley that Astros have a few guys that are close to helping Astros.

 

Further, they are also poised to have a steady stream of guys each season (ETAs taken from MLB.com Top 30):

2018:
Tucker*
Stubbs
Laureano
J Martin
Armenteros
Deetz

2019:
Whitley*
C Perez
H Perez
F Valdez
Straw
Arauz
Ferguson
Thornton

2020:
Y Alvarez*
Bukauskas*
C Martin
M Sierra
Celestino
Matijevic
Alcala
Adcock
Toro

2021:
Nova
E Rodriguez
J Perez

 

I disagree; Houston has above average top end talent with 4 Top 100 guys (the average team will always have 3), and they have tremendous pitching and outfield depth. Their catching and infield prospects are certainly their weak spots and what is keeping them from having a very strong system, but as the lower level guys (Nova, Matijevic, M Sierra, Arauz, Cueta, J Perez, Toro, etc.) move up next season that will hopefully improve. In the offseason rankings I think we will see Houston in the 8-12 range.

 

Astros probably have 4-6 guys in the Top 200 when the average team should have 6 guys assuming the guys on the MLB roster now lose eligibility. If the Astros are above average, it is because of Tucker and Whitley are high enough ranked to make up for lack of many good prospects (i.e. 100-200). I hope Nova and Celestino step up next year. Those two seem to have the highest upside.

 

Rankings are always top heavy. Among the guys we traded only Perez was a guaranteed top 100. Daz and Rogers may have been traded at their plateau values and even if not, I don't expect the Astros to fall more than 1-2 spots because of this trade. We went heavy into the international signings for this very reason, to give us depth at the 10-20 spots that would allow us to move guys who were having above average years. Whitley Tucker Bukauskas and Yordan are the key guys, the ones who have a chance at cracking a World Series caliber roster in the next 1-3 years.

 

There are some very good 2nd Tier prospects

Nova
Acala
Toro
Deetz
C. Perez
Armentos
J. Martin
Laureano
Hernandez
Wrenn - a Fav of mine
Benendetti- a fav of mine
Farrell
Adcock- a fav of mine

The farm system is still really deep. IMHO It's lacking at middle infielders although from what I've read Nova is the real deal and C, I hope make Toro a full time C. I think he's got MLB upside. The trade really didn't hurt the farm system much at all from what I've read. Of course there's many on this MB that know much more about the Talent in the MILB than I do.

 

It is not your fault, but Top 100 (or Top 200) is nonsense. A team's Top 20 prospect list is also nonsense.

A better perspective is how many prospects are A+, A, A- and B+.