You can't know what will happen...but having young talent in majors, young talent in minors, a front office that doesn't give away young talent for peanuts, and a front office that appears to be able to acquire young yalent well in draft and internationally...whatever happens, it is more likely than not Astros are contending for division for 5+ more years.
KATOH+ Rankings (basically uses BA list to improve a statistical projection of minor league prospects) 10. Tucker 35. Stubbs 37. Martes 40. Reed 42. F. Perez 48. Laureano 56. Paulino 63. Fisher 86. Hernandez Full list and KATOH model rankings here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-2017-top-100-prospects/ ..... I like the KATOH+ list because it knocks down prospects that people are over-excited that aren't showing it on field. It favors upper level guys that are easier to project.
Pretty insane to have 9 Astros in the top 100. And the top 6 guys all project as at least fringe regulars by that system. The rankings pretty much jibe with consensus with the exception of Stubbs and Laureano, who this system rates much higher, and Whitley, who was left off due to lack of sample size in pro ball. I am hesitant to fully buy in on Laureano, but he sure is seeing lots of helium. I am optimistic about Stubbs and think he will be a good everyday catcher in the majors.
My % chance of outcomes for Laureano: Doesn't reach majors: 3% AAAA: 25% 4th OF: 35% Everyday regular: 25% Star: 10% Superstar: 2%
On Stubbs, scouts are low on him due to size. For him, the biggest obstacle, besides not sucking against MLB pitchers, will be can he handle being the primary catcher. On Laureano, don't know what to make of him, yet. His production last year was a lot louder than what he is viewed by the traditional prospect lists. I'm most surprised by Fisher on this list. His stats are being projected for him being a very good prospect even with the Ks, which usually are viewed extremely negatively in models.
I consider Fisher as Springer without the arm. Extremely similar strikeout rates at every step in the minors and both feature elite speed/power.
I think Springer was a much better minor league hitter than Fisher but I hope Fisher can figure it out. I hope George can figure out how to steal a base with his elite speed.
Fisher and Springer had VERY similar walk and strikeout rates in the minors. But you're right, Springer was the superior hitter due to power and average. Without digging deeper it makes me think Springer hits the ball harder than Fisher, resulting in higher BABIP and more extra bare hits. So maybe it's overly optimistic to label Fisher as "Springer with a lesser arm". More likely, Fisher is a player whose positives are matched with negatives: a high walk rate countered by a high k rate, great speed countered by a weak arm, and how much his power develops will determine if he's a star, a regular, a bench OF, or a nobody.
The Fangraphs scouting the stats list loved the Astros. The Fangraphs scout...not so much. I was surprised he had Martes listed before Tucker. I'm guessing he trusts industry contacts as his opinions in chats have seemed very different. 18. Martes 63. Tucker Honorable Mention Paulino Whitley F. Perez Laureano http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/
Far lower on Houston's system than any other major site. Said Perez was last pitcher he cut so having him in the 100-110 range is ok, but hard to see how Whitley is not in the mix, and Tucker outside the Top 50 is too low. But he's really high on Martes. I'm fine with leaving Paulino (injury/discipline history, reliever potential) and Laureano (lack of pedigree, short track record) off the Top 100.
I'm still surprised Longenhagen put "just a reliever" Martes over "I wouldn't trade him for Quintana" Tucker. His contacts must have told him he just saw Martes on a bad day during AFL. Tucker must not get much love outside Astros organization for his opinion on Tucker to change that much in the last two months.
One interesting thing about the prospect value article related to that list is they only peg Tucker/Martes as having ~$75M in combined value. Comparing that to how much surplus value Quintana has makes it imho a pretty fair deal. If Quintana were a free agent looking for a 4 year deal, what would he get? Conservatively I think $110M/4yrs is about right. Subtract the $36M he is owed, and his surplus value comes in at $74M. So while we might cringe thinking about giving up Martes and Tucker for Quintana, by that math it's a fair deal.
On the other hand, if you use the BA's list, you are looking at $95 million surplus value. Considering CWS also wants Musgrove who I'll conservatively peg at 30 million, you are looking at a range of 105 to 125 million in surplus value depending on list used versus 74 million for Quintana. My opinion is that I expect Astros value Tucker more like BA than Fangraphs as I would expect Quintana would be an Astros already if they didn't. To note, the guy who calculated surplus value for prospects generally takes off 8 % each year as future WAR is worth less than present day WAR. As such, a prospect usually has to project 1.2-1.3 expected WAR for each WAR net present value.
A lot of scouts are really high on Martes. Not surprised at all that some would prefer him to Tucker.
It was longenhagen's first list. He could have been bold or go with the industry consensus. As mentioned, his chats made it seem like he'd be pretty negative on Martes when he ended being in the industry range if not slightly more positive than average. Interestingly, the TCB guys (Reillocity in particular) are much higher on Franklyn Perez than Martes based on his ridiculously advanced metrics. If he's to be believed, then Perez will be a top 10 prospect in the next two years (something I don't think Martes will hit).
Perez has been loved by scouts for over a year, I believe I even posted about the lower level scouts loving the Astros lower level prospects, specifically Perez. The publications information is always very dated and it doesn't seem to matter much which publication. The Astros are likely to be aggressive with Martes so he likely doesn't hit top 10 status; although I would argue that he isn't far of in the eyes of some scouts or clubs. He hasn't shown any red flags yet and after making major changes to his delivery and pitch selection last winter and early in the season, he did well down the stretch. He is a very good athlete, and the changes made were with the eye on major league success.
Fisher is casually 2nd in ST in steals with 5. Reed also tied for 3rd in HR with 4. Haven't been able to watch any games yet...hopefully our prospects are upping their trade value at the least. I know stats mean little but Moran going 9-22 and a wealth of arms like Gustave putting up solid numbers...we finally have hope again. So refreshing to see so many good prospects. Can't remember if we've ever had this young and talented of a ML core still with quality depth below.
