If the guy has an unheralded background he's got to not only do above average, but he's got to absolutely dominate to get some prospect attention. It takes a season like Laureano's last year for his 50 tool grades to start floating up in the 55-60 range. Martin's still got some work to do to overcome his 50 grade tweener profile.
Guy has produced pretty consistently, and he's young (still 21). He was a 20/20 guy last year, but his power was probably questioned due to the Lancaster effect. But he's pretty much replicated the production -- his current OPS would rank 6th in the Texas League. As a point of reference, his slugging is basically identical to JD Davis' (who was clearly too advanced for AA even if he's overmatched in the show). The biggest flag is his walk rate dropping off substantially in AA. A comp who comes to mind for whatever reason is Kike Hernandez. He doesn't have the positional flexibility that Kike does, but they similarly produced good numbers at a young age and kept getting promoted. He was never at the top of any prospect list, but now showing pretty good MLB staying power. I was surprised he repeated in Hi-A this year after posting an .890 OPS in Lancaster last year. Curious to see where he starts next year if he finishes the season strong.
I agree with you, especially when there isn't a huge "bust out" season. Martin has been "good" at each level. The non prospect tag is really, really hard to shake. Look no further than Jose Altuve..... he was very young and was a 330 hitter in the minors and was never a top prospect. I don't think he ever cracked the top 100. He was 25-30th in the system in 2010 if I remember right.
I was as well. I know the Astros put more stock in what their scouts and coaches say than raw numbers. It is why we have seen some promotions that have appeared odd, and why other guys have drifted even when producing well. One of the Astros decision makers likes about a dozen miles from me in DeKalb and has mutual charitable interests and told me that for all the analytics and emphasis on new age measurements, the Astros are huge on scouting and coaching.
I will say Altuve went from being very good year in A ball to the majors very quickly. Also, I think scouting is looking at contact skills more than back then (other than maybe for the CWS).
There was enough excitement around Altuve.... I specifically remember getting tickets to go to his first game as an Astro (especially since it was one of those mid-week day games), because there was some excitement/anticipation introduced with his callup. Much more than a Derek Fisher or Colin Moran-type.
Then there are guys like Steve Naemark, LHP who sped thru 4 levels in 2015 with an overall era of 1.47. He got released in March of 2016. Despite his age (25 in 2015), he had numbers that screamed to keep him. The coaches must have disagreed.
Abraham Toro-Hernandez hit another homer for Quad Cities; it's a solo shot that gives him 5 with the River Bandits and 11 on the season.
