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2016 General Election Polling Thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Carl Herrera, Jul 30, 2016.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Now that the conventions are done, time to watch the horse race:

    1.New PPP Poll done after the DNC. Clinton by 5% overall in both a 2-way race and a 4-way race. The pollster is saying that the contest is shaping up like 2012 with the Democratic side expected to have a solid, if not a blow out, win at the end.


    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...s-following-conventions-leads-trump-by-5.html

    Also looks like the Democratic convention is a little more successful than the GOP one in terms of shaping perception of their candidate. More polling are gonna come out in the next few days.

    2. A RABA Research poll look like a bit of an outlider: Clinton by 15%-- an unlikely actual election result. However, comparing to the pre-RNC/DNC polls, Clinton is up by a bit. Clinton also got a bigger convention bounce than Trump did.

    http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Updated-National-Survey-July-2016-2.pdf
     
    #1 Carl Herrera, Jul 30, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2016
  2. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Yeah. This thread is at least one week to early. Lets wait until a thorough polling sample has been done.
     
  3. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    This is just like early season power ranking, it is just for fun at this time.
     
  4. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Early returns on the post-convention polls:

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Clinton's convention bounce appears bigger than Trump's: <a href="https://t.co/ZuDnPI8Z0i">https://t.co/ZuDnPI8Z0i</a> <a href="https://t.co/D6EP6WIAZS">pic.twitter.com/D6EP6WIAZS</a></p>&mdash; FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) <a href="https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/760178552000045058">August 1, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


    Also, some interesting data on "undecided" voters:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-has-narrow-lead-in-pennsylvania.html
     
    #4 Carl Herrera, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
  5. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    Trump's RNC Was Least Effective Party Convention in Three Decades, Poll Finds

    Ouch. So Trumph's own convention was a hit piece on him?
     
  6. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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  7. LabMouse

    LabMouse Member

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    Either candidate suck, this term election would bad enough to let people in other countries (North Korea, China etc) to say they may have a better system to select their leaders.
     
  8. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    Why are you grouping China with NK? For the last thirty years, Chinese leaders have proven over and over again they are extremely competent at the top level.
     
  9. LabMouse

    LabMouse Member

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    NK has a very bad system, China has a bad or ok system in US people eyes. To me they are not in the same group, but lots of Americans will put two together, but I think China is doing ok right now.

     
  10. txtony

    txtony Member

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  11. dumbartonbass

    dumbartonbass Contributing Member
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    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Support for President: Gary Johnson 6%, Harambe 5%, Jill Stein 2%</p>&mdash; PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) <a href="https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/759579980925927424">July 31, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    We must do what is necessary to ensure that Harambe Johnson-Stein receives the necessary 15% to be included in the debates.
     
  12. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    Why? They will only dilute and distract from Trumph's nuttiness by being there. The libertarians are bonkers.
     
  13. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Hillary is getting a significant bounce from the Democratic National Convention!

    Secretary Clinton takes a 9 point post-convention lead!

    [​IMG]

    Post-convention poll: Clinton retakes lead over Trump

    Washington (CNN)

    Hillary Clinton emerges from her party's convention in Philadelphia with a restored lead over Donald Trump, having earned a 7-point convention bounce, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.

    In a two-way head-to-head matchup, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 43%, and in a four-way matchup including third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Clinton leads 45% to 37% with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 5%.

    Besides improving her standing against Trump, Clinton's convention appears to have boosted the share of Americans who think her policies will move the country in the right direction (from 43% before either convention to 48% now), while Trump's right direction number held roughly steady following the back-to-back political gatherings in Cleveland and Philadelphia.


    Further, a majority of Clinton's backers now say their vote is more to show support for her than to oppose Trump, a sharp shift since early May. Back then, 48% said their vote was one of support for the former secretary of state, 58% say so now. While Trump also improved his numbers on that metric, his voters are more evenly divided, with 47% saying they're backing him to show support and 50% saying it's more to oppose Clinton.

    More of Clinton's backers also say they are certain to support her come November: 44% of registered voters are Clinton supporters who say their mind is made up, while 36% say they are solidly behind Trump. Only about 16% of voters say their minds could change in the 99 days left between now and Election Day.

    Clinton's convention appears to have helped her reverse the damage done to perceptions of her honesty during the GOP convention, but she did not improve those numbers compared with where they stood before either convention. Overall, 34% say they consider Clinton honest and trustworthy, up from 30% after the GOP convention but exactly where that figure was in a poll conducted before either convention happened.

    Clinton made more progress on several other measures, however, with 50% now saying she's in touch with the problems of ordinary Americans, and 48% that she will unite the country and not divide it. She gained three points -- a change inside the margin of sampling error for this poll -- compared with a poll conducted before the Republican convention on having the right experience, running for the good of the country rather than personal gain and as someone you would be proud to have as president.

    On each of those measures, Clinton fares better than Trump, except when voters are asked about their honesty. Thirty-five percent say they see Trump as honest and trustworthy, just about even with the former secretary of state.

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/01/politics/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html
     
  14. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    rimrocker's guide to presidential polling:

    1. Don't pay attention to national polling until mid-August/September.
    2. Only pay attention to national polling if one candidate is carrying a consistent 4-5% lead.
    3. State polls matter more than national ones. A small but meaningful lead in one critical state can be washed out by a major deficit in another giving a skewed view of the national race, which ultimately depends on electoral votes.
    4. Don't pay attention to state polls unless there are more than two within a week or so and they all show the same trend.
    5. Watch where the candidates are campaigning by mid-September. If Hillary is in NC and Texas and NV, she's feeling good but if she is in Ohio and PA, it could be tight. Same with Trump: If he is in Michigan and Iowa and Colorado, he's feeling good but if he is in FL and WV, he's in trouble.
    6. Don't trust polls.
     
    1 person likes this.
  15. Cohete Rojo

    Cohete Rojo Contributing Member

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    Is this the official post-convention 2016 election thread? Do we have one? Can someone start one?
     
  16. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    The No Fun Guide to Presidential Polling. :(
     
    1 person likes this.
  17. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    True, but this is pretty telling

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gallup: this GOP convention is first *ever* where more say they are now less likely to vote for the party's nominee. <a href="https://t.co/1RVDEGKy76">pic.twitter.com/1RVDEGKy76</a></p>&mdash; Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) <a href="https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/760141319499112448">August 1, 2016</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
     
  18. CometsWin

    CometsWin Imperial cereal killer
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    Agree. Polls are meaningless until much closer to the election.
     
  19. HardenTime

    HardenTime Member

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    trump in a landslide, zionist are putting out propaganda on the polling
     
    1 person likes this.
  20. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Of course. Zionists are good at math. They also have Asian friends who are also good at math.
     
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