Has anyone posted the BA top 10 for the Astros? 1. AJ Reed 2. Francis Martes 3. Alex Bregman 4. Kyle Tucker 5. Daz Cameron 6. Joe Musgrove 7. David Paulino 8. Colin Moran 9. Derek Fisher 10. Michael Feliz
They aren't perfect, but there are a lot of minor leaguers. Of good major leaguers, about 60-70 percent of them were on a preseason Top 100 list. Guys like Keuchel are going to slip through, but it is very hard to predict his type of player. Guys like McCullers (i.e. talented guys likely just outside Top 100 that spend less than a season in AA and above) are also going to slip through the preseason Top 100. Considering the amount of uncertainty between projecting a major leaguer's next season with major league data, prospect lists being as accurate as they are is amazing considering they are projecting a minor leaguer's performance in the majors from minor league data.
They actually started playing him in the OF last year because 2B is blocked, and Bregman is right on his heels. Kemp is extremely small, and despite Altuve's success, players of that size are almost unheard of in the MLB (or any sport for that matter). He also struggled in AAA last year. Because of his pedigree (or lack therof) he doesn't really get the benefit of the doubt. Despite being basically viewed in a similar light rankings wise to Fisher (Fisher has more pop, but very close otherwise), I think Fisher has much more trade value because a 6-1 athletic OF is so much more common than a 5-6 anything.
But, despite his size the Astros made him a 5th round pick. And he certainly doesn't lack a pedigree (hence the 5th tound pick) having been a successful collegiate player at Vanderbilt- one of the top programs in the country. Kemp was the MVP of the SEC and first team All-American in 2013. He also (despite hitting .273 in Fresno) holds a career .304/.393/ and almost .800 ops.
The Astros routinely(lately, Luhnow era) find college seniors that are good but overlooked for various reasons(Preston Tucker, 7th Round, bad baseball body) to sign in the top 3-10 rounds so that they can spread their allotted pool allowance more heavily in the first few rounds. Not to take anything away from Kemp, as it looks like they found another good one, but you can't tie his value to his draft position, as there is a good chance another team would have drafted him much later. FWIW, Kemp signed for 250K that year, about 110K under slot. http://www.perfectgame.org/Draft/Signings.aspx?y=2013
Perhaps pedigree was a poor choice of words on my part. What I meant was that he has never been viewed as a possible MLB difference maker by scouts. Despite his greatness is college, he still fell to the 5th round. Scouts tend to have their mind made up on guys. If everything about Tomy Kemp was the exact same results wise, expect he was 6-2 instead of 5-6, he would have been a 1st round pick, and would be a top 50 prospect now. Fairly or unfairly, that height stands out as a neon red flag because seeing that translate is so rare.
I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment but would point out that internal prospect lists vary from organization to organization and greatly from what you see in publications or on websites. While 60-70% is impressive, some fans completely evaluate based on the prospect # next to their name. For example, I seriously doubt that the Astros would deal Martes for 75% of the names above him on some of the lists I have seen. There was a similar situation with AJ Reed.... he wasn't listed as a top 50-75 prospect, when the Astros internally valued him at a very high level.
He's an interesting guy to me. Basically, had a bad first 100-150 ABs at AAA and then turned it on for another 100-150 ABs. I think the Astros right now are hoping he turns into a Enrique Hernandez with a little less power. Basically, a guy that can play some infield/some outfield and his bat can get in the game a lot. Maybe turn into a starter if all goes well. Maybe, becomes a nobody if it doesn't. Astros, though having a lot of swing and a miss guys in majors last year, have a ton of guys that don't swing and miss in the minors. I think this is a skill the Astros focus on prior to the majors. Guys with this skill tend not to have as big a dropoff in their RC+ from AAA to the majors.
It is understandable that different teams value different guys differently. I would guess most prospects are on the team that values them the most. I see the prospect lists more of how teams evaluate other teams' prospects than how a team evaluates its own prospects. I see no problem throwing a value on a prospect based on the skill of whoever is making a list. Typically, the values aren't going to be very accurate prior to AA. Some lists love tools. Some love production. On Martes, BA had internal disagreement on his spot. I would expect other lists to have him higher.
Heck, and there were a few who were mad about trading Cosart. I'd of been one of them if not for the unbelievable haul Luhnow managed.
Interesting write up on Kemp from when he was drafted. http://www.anchorofgold.com/2013/6/...emp-signs-with-the-astros-ends-his-vanderbilt
You do understand that this has little to nothing to do with how actual Major League Baseball teams value players, right?
Yep...but short of knowing Luhnow's password, I doubt I'll get much information about how the Astros view their orospects. An outsider's view is more information than none.
Anyone think Alex Bregman draws some comparisons to Chris Burke when he was drafted? - Both noted for being gritty hustle players that make their tools play up - Both considered advanced players with chance to move up quickly - Neither a true shortstop with 2B as their best position - Both blocked at their position by a future HOF (Biggio and Correa) - Similar size (both listed 5'11 180lbs) - Similar power (raw power goes to Bregman but his swing plane and pull tendenacies will limit his overall HR numbers in the 10-15 range similar to what Burke was expected) Hopefully Bregman can find a position and play everyday. Bregman is following the same MILB trajectory and will be in AA in his age 22 season. Burke had to repeat AA as he disappointed in his first try and wasn't called up until he was 24 (after putting up a monster AAA season). Given our win now mode, if Bregman is blocked when he's ready to come up, I think Luhnow trades him.
Baseball Prospectus released its top 101 prospects list today, and 5 Astros were named on the list. Spoiler 39. Alex Bregman 55. A.J. Reed 63. Francis Martes 85. Daz Cameron 93. Kyle Tucker On his swing:
