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[2014-2015] Will the Mavericks be contenders?

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by steddinotayto, Jul 17, 2014.

  1. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
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    Bored at work again

    So they traded for Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton, signed Rashard Lewis and Parsons. Can this team be a contender next season?

    Based on Win Shares, their starting lineup was responsible for 31.3 of the 49 wins last season.

    Dalembert 4.9 WS
    Nowitzki 10.9
    Marion 4.3
    Ellis 4.9
    Calderon 6.3

    The Mavs traded away Dalembert and Calderon and brought back Chandler and a fat Raymond Felton. Chandler had a 4.9 WS and Felton had a 2.2 WS. Dallas is also replacing Marion with Parsons who had a 7.6 WS. If you simply transfer those numbers over then this is what you get:

    Chandler 4.9
    Nowitzki 10.9
    Parsons 7.6
    Ellis 4.9
    Felton 2.2

    Total 30.5

    Now, of course, Tyson was injured for a good part of last year and had posted WS numbers in the 9s the years before that, including the year he won a championship with Dallas. I guess we can be generous and say that 4.9 WS will be Chandler's basement number (which matches up nicely with Dalembert's WS last year) and 9 is his ceiling and taking the median for a good estimation.

    Chandler 6.95 (average value)
    Nowitzki 10.9
    Parsons 7.6
    Ellis 4.9
    Felton 2.2

    Total 32.55

    Now I guess I can also be generous to our portly friend as well too and with him I'll be real generous. Rather than looking back at the past few years like I did for Tyson Chandler, I took Felton's entire WS value and divide that by the number of years he's been eating/playing. I get a value of 2.945 which is reasonable since he's on a better team with a better coach. Now their starting lineup total jumps to 33.295. What about their newly acquired max player? Last year's 7.6 was an increase from his 7.0 WS in 2012-2013. I really don't know where to peg him at because his numbers from the past two seasons are really the same across the board. But just to be "fair", lets bump him up to 8.0 for next season. That gives a jump to 33.695 for the starting lineup. I didn't change Dirk's or Ellis' figures because both are pretty consistent relative to their career numbers.

    So...you get a starting lineup that produces rough 34 wins. That leaves the bench to consider. Since they lost Vince Carter to Memphis and trade DeJuan Blair to the Wizards, the Mavericks lost 7.7 in combined WS between those two players. Coming back in to replace those players are Rashard Lewis and Greg Smith. Lewis hasn't cracked 2 WS the past 3 years but lets be generous to him as well to because hey, why the hell not? Greg Smith, however, had a very productive year in 2012-2013 accumulating 4 WS. Since he's still young, lets give him the benefit of the doubt and pencil him in for 4 WS as wel.

    That gives the Mavericks a total of 40 wins spread among 7 players. Their saving grace is that Brandon Wright is still on the team (5.1 WS last year) and Devin Harris signed on the cheap. Keeping Wright's WS the same and giving Harris a slight bump from his numbers last year (1.7 to, say, 2.5). That adds another 7.6 wins to the 40 they already have. Adding in other players like Crowder and whatever they scrounge up for the bench, the Mavericks should be slated to win about 50 games.

    Keep in mind that most of my projected numbers were on the generous end thinking that Felton can contribute to society and the NBA, Tyson gets back to his old Maverick days, Parsons playing better than last year, etc. If the West holds true in terms of competition and parity it doesn't seem like a smart thing to do to pay $15 million for a player just to get a couple of more wins.
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. Pieman2005

    Pieman2005 Member

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    Contender? No. Playoff team? Probably.
     
  3. lalala902102001

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    Can they beat the top three teams in the West? No way.

    Can they make the playoffs? Yes.

    Can they beat the Rockets as we are constructed? Now that is the question...
     
  4. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
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    Honestly? I think it's a wash even though they have Parsons and Dirk. I guess that's a sad thing for us Rockets fans but if that IS the case those Maverick bandwagoners will start counting down the days to free agency again.

    It's asking a lot for Tyson Chandler to regain his old self. Sure he's only 1 year removed from his All-Star selection but he's going into his 14th season. They have a better chance of seeing more production out of Brandan Wright than Tyson Chandler IMO.

    Losing Carter, Calderon, and most likely Marion is HUGE for them.
     
  5. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Good analysis.

    Sounds like there is a lot of downside to how their team is constructed unless Parsons really emerges as a star.

    The whole rest of the team is on the downside of their career.
     
  6. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan Member

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    I would not have guessed Felton's WS would have been even that high.
     
  7. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
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    When you look at Lin's production last year (4.4 WS) you'll see how bad 2.2 WS is for a starting point guard
     
  8. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    They're overrealiant on Chandler's health and losing Vince Carter will be big. Felton's garbage. The'd be better off starting with Ellis at the point and having a guy who can space the floor at the 2 (don't be surprised if they eventually decide to do this).

    They'll most likely make the playoffs but they won't get very far. They might cause problems with some teams though (like us).
     
  9. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    They are old, injury prone and declining.
     
  10. Louka

    Louka Contributing Member

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    I thought they were starting Harris at point
     
  11. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost clean your room bucko

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    4th through 6th seed, then fading into oblivion as Dirk ages.
     
  12. BabySeal

    BabySeal Member

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    chandler parsons max offer player now. I think mavs will be champions of the world.
     
  13. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    You know what? I completely forgot they brought him back. Ignore what I said then.
     
  14. SPURS

    SPURS Rookie

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    Are the rockets contenders?
     
  15. shawn786

    shawn786 Member

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    Unless Harden has a break out season, on the defensive end, I don't see it. :(
     
  16. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Their ceiling is the 4 seed. I think they wind up 5th or 6th.
     
  17. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member
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    Their starting lineup should survive but the bench is a complete wreck. I'd be shocked if they win more than 50 games without making any big trades.
     
  18. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    Zero chance

    Another first round exit

    Chandler and Fatty Felton is a lateral move to Dally and Calderon - Chandler is better than Dally but Calderon is way better than Felton esp with his tremdous shooting

    Adding Parsons is ok but then you lose Marion and Vince Carter

    Dirk is a year older

    Monta still don't have it all.
     
  19. JMAD21

    JMAD21 Member

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  20. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    If Chandler and Dirk play out of there mind and are healthy, 4th seed. If Dirk plays below last years level and Chandler gets hurt, they may miss the playoffs altogether.

    So I will aim in-between and say 6th seed.
     
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