Thomas Friedman is on point with this latest piece. I would love to see Beto, Biden, or Buttigieg win it. Even Warren, surprisingly. The party needs its Bernie's and other far liberal politicians like the Squad to keep everyone honest but I'd rather keep the country left of center than too far in either direction. Trump’s Going to Get Re-elected, Isn’t He?’ By Thomas L. Friedman Excerpts below, full piece in the link below. "Dear Democrats: This is not complicated! Just nominate a decent, sane person, one committed to reunifying the country and creating more good jobs, a person who can gain the support of the independents, moderate Republicans and suburban women who abandoned Donald Trump in the midterms and thus swung the House of Representatives to the Democrats and could do the same for the presidency. And that candidate can win! But please, spare me the revolution! It can wait. Win the presidency, hold the House and narrow the spread in the Senate, and a lot of good things still can be accomplished. “No,” you say, “the left wants a revolution now!” O.K., I’ll give the left a revolution now: four more years of Donald Trump. That will be a revolution. Four years of Trump feeling validated in all the crazy stuff he’s done and said. Four years of Trump unburdened by the need to run for re-election and able to amplify his racism, make Ivanka secretary of state, appoint even more crackpots to his cabinet and likely get to name two right-wing Supreme Court justices under the age of 40. Yes sir, that will be a revolution! It will be an overthrow of all the norms, values, rules and institutions that we cherish, that made us who we are and that have united us in this common project called the United States of America. If the fear of that doesn’t motivate the Democratic Party’s base, then shame on those people. Not all elections are equal. Some elections are a vote for great changes — like the Great Society. Others are a vote to save the country. This election is the latter. That doesn’t mean a Democratic candidate should stand for nothing, just keep it simple: Focus on building national unity and good jobs. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~` That’s a simple message that can connect with enough Democrats — as well as independents, moderate Republicans and suburban women — to win the White House." https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/opinion/trump-2020.html
If the economy stays strong, yes. The current round of Democrats want too much for nothing. I agree with very few of Trump's policies but at the moment no one really stands out to me. Hell everyone just took Bernie's ideas and are running with it...
Everyone is sane, decent, and unifying compared to Trump, so that box was checked from the outset. The only way Democrats can screw this up is by nominating another Republican-appeasing, self-sabotaging, feckless, coastal, corporate McDemocrat. Nobody in a swing state wants to hear more mealy mouthed garbage about compromise and dignity. They want solutions.
Also, this goober believes moderate Republicans will actually vote Democrat if the nominee is Centrist enough. What a joke. Nothing supports that theory.
I’m not sure what’s a moderate republican anymore. Anyone that isn’t a trump republican is called a liberal.
To be fair nearly all the Dem candidates are proposing repealing the tax cut which brings back in more than enough to pay for quite a few things, but beyond that there’s still much more of an emphasis on relying on studies and CBO scores than in years past. Biden today listed the price for expansion of a public option of 782 billion which is probably a doable cost given what we spend on the military etc. Also every politician sells policy ideas when campaigning. Only Republicans who would never vote Dem anyway try to make the argument that because a Dem is campaigning on giving things to citizens as a reason to vote for someone like Trump or Bush previously. It’s just an excuse and frankly shows your cards. I DO think it’s fair though to ask for the finances on how to pay for expansion programs. I want to know that as well. You don’t have to campaign on the details but you need it outlined on your website at least. Also... Trump campaigned on free sh$& too and have been a budget disaster. Don’t even get my started on Bush. Republicans just have no credibility anymore to make an argument about financial conservatism which is why at least Trump is honest enough to know it’s a stupid argument and just go to what Rep voters really care about... fear of brown people of course.
Totally up in the air. He might well win. Trump hasn't expanded his base in the slightest. So it is up to the Democrats. If they can get more turn out than they got with Hillary, they will win. If enough people believe it is their duty to go out and oppose Trump they will win. There are zero true independents that have been won over by Trump's antics. There may be a few who dislike the reaction to Trump's antics will come out and vote for him. But none of those people would have ever voted for any of the Dem candidates, to begin with, unless that candidate is super charismatic. There may also be a few Trump voters from the last cycle that are tired of the division and will either stay home or have a minuscule chance of voting for the Democratic candidate. These voters will not vote for the more progressive candidates. They might vote for Budigege though depending on how he would do after the nomination. The bottom line is what can Democrats do to bring out people that actually support their candidate and not only vote against Trump.
We have high levels of corporate debt. We are running a trillion dollar deficit. The Global Economy is slowing down. We have had a 10 year bull run. This looks like 2007 all over again. I just hope a democrat doesn't win and the whole thing just falls apart and then we will have a swing back to the republican side. The democrats had such a great opportunity after 2008. They have had a super majority. They should have passed universal healthcare.
I would consider a centrist candidate but i dont see one at this point. I wish trump would stop tweeting. I am afraid the policies proposed by the leftist candidates would be detrimental. Please dont consider my remarks racist.
So racist! On the serious, what I personally believe* democrats underestimate, more than anything else, is #45's basic skill as a marketer and campaigner. He's a brilliant campaigner and will be again for this election cycle. * = Spoiler
Trump is showing the GOP is definitely the party for racists. Reagan and the Bushes were a bit more into dog whistling with Willy Horton and welfare queens etc, Many of the more genteel types are not personally racist but content with power and their tax breaks so they won’t complain much
"We don’t need black faces that don’t want to be a black voice," she said. "We don’t need Muslims that don’t want to be a Muslim voice. We don’t need queers that don’t want to be a queer voice. If you’re worried about being marginalized and stereotyped, please don’t even show up because we need you to represent that voice." -Representative Pressley
u forgot to mention that he had help from his Russian handlers to influence / discourage black voter turn out. also, Hillary was a lousy national campaigner the bluewave of 2018 was a referendum on 45; suburban white woman voters, who had voted for Trump in 2016, are turned off by the sleaze bag / head of a mob family. Next week's Mueller testimony may turn off more Trump voters. the House Resolution condemning his racist tweets doesn't help either
False equivalency. She is at most saying that minority representatives should prioritize minority agenda. She is not telling them to leave the country. Why should I care about a few social democracy nuts in the congress, when there is a pathological liar in the white house with an obviously divisive nationalistic agenda (in a country made completely of immigrants)? Do you not see how much disparity there is in the power that each of these two parties hold? Maybe wait until AOC leads a block as big as say Black Caucus before "getting your panties up in a bunch." What has the Nepotist in Chief done to bring back the American Dream for all of us? Tax breaks for corporations and ultra rich seem like quite the round about way of sprucing up social mobility in the country. All he is concerned with is building a stupid wall and restricting asylum seekers rights instead of trying to solve the root of the problem. His nepotism based brain trust is failing him. Crazy ideas from AOC can start up debate and produce good ideas. Let her be.
The truth is I don’t think there every really is such a thing as an independent. There are however many many people who are dishonest about their political leanings. We see it here daily. How many diehard supporters here try try play the independent voter card? The truth is the Dems after Obama got elected lost the racially aggrieved white blue collar working class, but after Trump have made in roads with suburban voters ... especially women. That shift hurts from an electoral college perspective and the senate but helps with the popular vote. It’s really hard to win the presidency and Senate now in 2019, but in the future the math looks bad for Republicans who will eventually lose key states. The path to win now is to drive up the vote in key states in suburban and urban districts. So yeah... it is about turnout. Detroit suburbs and Pittsburgh suburbs cost Hillary but in 2018 there are signs that Trump has hurt those key turnout voters in those states among others that went Red in 2016. Florida and yes Texas are vulnerable... well more Florida than Texas but it’s trending that way with the influx of transplants we have. Long story short Trump definitely can win and actually has a huge electoral advantage. A ten point advantage in the polls for the Dems would be nice but is hardly secure. Trumps path to winning it pretty straight forward.... depress the suburban voters who care more about football and real housewives as their top priority in life as much as he can. Make politics as toxic as he can and hope apathy wins the day.
Friedman (or the editor) is deliberately using an inflammatory headline for his column. The GOP is a minority party. They lost the popular vote in 2016 by 3,000,000. In 2018, Democrats totaled 9,000,000 more votes than Republican opponents. That raw vote margin in favor of Democrats is the largest in midterm election history. Friedman is attempting to gin up the Democratic turnout in 2020 by being an alarmist, and I don’t have a problem with that. The GOP gains in 2010 enabled them to control redistricting in a majority of states. That’s what has helped them retain as many House seats has they have since then. The massive turnout for Democrats in 2018 finally overcame their redistricting edge, and it will lead to a Democratic edge in that department in 2020. The Senate in 2018? Only a few GOP seats were up for reelection, so despite a very large majority voting for Democrats, there were far fewer seats up for grabs for Democrats to win. Also, with each state having 2 Senate seats, a state like Wyoming with a tiny population carries the same weight as a state like California, the nation’s most populated state. In 2020, the number of Senate seats being contested will flip. Far fewer Democratic seats will be contested, while a very large number of Republican Senate seats will be up for reelection. That’s why you see GOP Senators like Lindsey Graham talking like a typical trump supporting far-right extremist. He’s got the lowest approval rating among GOP incumbent Senators in 2014 during his last primary run. Up for reelection, and another primary, Graham attaching himself to trump’s extremism has boosted his stock among Republican voters in his state. That will likely win him another primary victory, but whether he’ll win reelection will depend on what the other voters in his state think about his record. Certainly, his use of Joe McCarthy tactics in support of trump, calling the 4 congresswomen “Communists,” a bizarre lie, can be used against him in the general election. Turnout is key for Democrats. If Democratic voters simply turnout and vote, the defeat of trump is assured, and a Senate majority to add to their House majority is very likely. If Democrats continue to “eat their own,” which we inevitably seem to do, it will be the only way 2020 can lead to a GOP victory. That much is clear. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will get my vote, even if I have to hold my nose to do it. Anything else could lead to trump getting a victory the numbers say should be impossible. Food for thought, people.
Trump will likely win with this current climate and trajectory. We will see... I always wait until the day before to do a final prediction but I don't see much to change from last time. He's actually scored a number of key victories.
