We got better (through the healing process) and we're still in the midst of the off-season. Last season, there was that epic thread with everyone claiming Dallas would destroy the Rockets. We'll just have to let the games play out. That being said, I won't put us in the top 4 until we get a PG.
We are easily top 4 as is. The team could use a point guard to push us over the top but being healthy for a full season could do the same. The Rockets are a contender as constructed and proved it last season. Most teams just trying to catch up.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Did the Grizzlies have a better summer than the Spurs? CHART TIME <a href="http://t.co/RK98Hcl4ev">http://t.co/RK98Hcl4ev</a> <a href="http://t.co/RAbsf5g5hs">pic.twitter.com/RAbsf5g5hs</a></p>— Tom Ziller (@teamziller) <a href="https://twitter.com/teamziller/status/620602985366876160">July 13, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
On paper: Warriors - defending champ. Kept most of the team Spurs - replaced Baynes and Splitter with Aldridge and West. Can't beat that. Clippers - their bench (Rivers, Crawford, Stephenson, Smith, Udoh) isn't bad at all Grizzlies - did the best frontcourt just get better with Brandan Wright? Rockets - a healthy Beverly and Motiejunas makes a difference but the loss of Smith hurts Thunder - that Durant guy, if he can stay healthy, might help the team a little bit Pelicans - A better coach, with AD having tasted playoffs could prove to be a dangerous team Suns - Wouldn't be an NBA season if the Suns aren't fighting for the last playoff spot Mavs - I guess they got their 3 superstars in Dirk, Parsons, and Matthews
As of today, 7/17: (assuming 100% health). Tier 1: GSW, SA, OKC, LAC Tier 2: HOU, MEM Tier 3: NOR, UTH, PHX, DAL Lottery Tier: POR, LAL, MIN, DEN Dumpster Tier: SAC Clippers moved from Tier 2 to Tier 1 with the Josh Smith move to add quality bench depth. Rockets and Memphis are both a move away from being a Tier 1 team. Memphis needs more shooting and the Rockets need another shot creator/scorer. I feel there is a big drop off from Tier 2 to Tier 3.
I'm not that high on OKC as others - thin bench and heavy minutes on KD and WB will take their toll. 1) GS - obvious reasons here 2) SAS - huge upgrade in depth with LMA, success will depend on health of Parker and Manu as well but they have plenty of people to fill those roles as long as Duncan and LMA are healthy 3) LAC - DJ signing here instead of Dallas actually hurt us a lot, there are now there bona fide contenders in the West 4) HOU - as usual, we are a move or two away from the top tier. Standing pat this offseason has hurt us. Not that worried about losing Smith, per se, but we haven't made a splash at the 1 or 4. Harrell looks good but haven't seen much from Dekker 5) OKC - thin bench, Kanter is fool's gold, heavy minutes on stars 6) MEM - Memphis could be higher than OKC; they needed to add shooting but adding Wright was a savvy move at that price and makes a Z Bo trade possible 7) NOP - Anthony Davis. Nuff said. Otherwise the team is a mess. 8) DAL - they scraped back to a semblance of relevancy with Hail Mary bandage moves, but they won't recover from DJ anytime soon. Building via FA is a pain 9) PHX - the man without a plan. Signing Ty and benching a Len on the verge of breakout is odd. Trading a valuable pick for a downgrade at PG is worse (while selling low on Thomas.) Best player (Bledsoe) is injury prone and has no cartilage in his knees 10) UTA - Nice young core but West is stacked. Good rim protector and scorer but PG still a question 11) POR - made some decent stop gap moves, but overpaid on Aminu. Vonleh may be a decent pickup but no scoring firepower after Lillard. 12) MIN - wiggins should break out and towns a good pick but not much else to write home about 13) DEN - a complete mess, but Mudiay looks like a home run 14) SAC - completely disastrous team building, pieces don't fit together, Boogie as thick skulled as always and now has Rondo to be his sulking partner 15) LAL - LOL
GSW LAC OKC MEM HOU Let's be honest... We probably would not have beaten MEM in the playoffs last year. I just don't think so. It would be a close series but we go down in 6 or 7. Howard/Capela Motiejunas/Jones Ariza/Brewer Harden/Thornton Bev/Terry/Johnson Not there yet.
This is how I see the West playing out this year baring injuries unless Houston makes a move. Those 5 teams just have more depth and talent then us this year.
One problem I have with the "Clippers are clearly a tier ahead" logic: I think there's a subtle bias toward flashier external moves when people make these rankings in July and August. Everyone's focused on the shiny new toys from free agency, when for many teams, returns from injury can be just as significant. What we know: the Rockets beat the Clippers in a seven-game series, 4-3. That's not a commanding edge for the Rockets, but a slight one nonetheless. In terms of major changes from those teams: The Clippers replaced Matt Barnes with Paul Pierce (upgrade), Glen Davis/Spencer Hawes with Josh Smith (upgrade) and Lance Stephenson probably takes some minutes away from Austin Rivers. Are they better? Yes. Then again, the Rockets replace Josh Smith with Donatas Motiejunas (upgrade), Jason Terry with Pat Beverley (upgrade), and to some extent, Pablo Prigioni with Marcus Thornton and probably Terry. I'd also argue that the Rockets have better "wild cards" with upside at the end of the bench, in guys like Dekker, Harrell and hopefully McDaniels, in the event there are injuries. A 38-year-old Pierce, Josh and whatever's left of Lance Stephenson are certainly better than the guys they're replacing. But are they significantly better upgrades than Motiejunas, Beverley and Thornton relative to the guys they're replacing in the Houston rotation? I'm not so sure. The LA guys are sexier and have more ESPN appeal, but in terms of winning basketball games, I don't see a big gap. To me, with the rosters the way they are now, it's the Spurs/Warriors and then the Rockets are somewhere in that tier with the Clippers, Grizzlies and Thunder. Too close to call a precise order.
I think this is pretty accurate and a good way to look at it. It's probably safe to move Denver down to the dumpster fire tier too
If we get Ty Lawson or Ricky we are #1 in the west. Without #3 or #4....Spur is #1. Warrior will fall back to #3 or 4.
