With the experience he's getting and in regards to his age--yes, Lin will be better next season than he was this season. And the season after that he will be better all the more. The question is how much better. Should Lin have a coach who puts the ball in his hands, and has unrelenting confidence in him--like D'Antoni did, I believe that Lin can be at the level of Lowry and Dragic, absolutely.
This season, Lin averaged 15 pts and 5.5 assists and shot 46% from the field when he played 24 minutes or more per game (i.e., at least half the game). As a full time 30 min per game in a starting PG role, he would probably average 17/7 and shoot in the mid to high 40's or better. That would place him in the top 10 for PGs.
It's really difficult (as a layman, at least) to make the comparison because Lowry and Dragic, sans Harden, were given much more latitude as the primary ball-handler. Lin has to do more mix and match depending on who's on the floor, and I think the lack of a consistent role affects his game. The biggest mark against him might be the confidence issue. I rarely questioned the mental fortitude of Lowry or Dragic (especially Lowry), but Lin seems to be in perpetual battle with his inner demons. It remains to be seen whether this is something he can largely overcome.
You really HAVE to get off that pet stat of yours about his numbers when playing 24 minutes. Too many variables to factor in when looking at that stat to just assume that minutes = production. He averaged ~30 minutes this year and 32 last year. You also make 17/7 and high 40s shooting percentage sound A LOT easier than it really is to do. All of 2 players averaged 17/7 this year while shooting 45%. Paul and Curry. That's it. You fail to factor in increased defensive attention when not playing next to all star talent. It's just not as simple as you make it out to be. I understand your faith in his ability is stronger than just about anyone on this board, but I just don't see him coming through with your prediction.
This isn't true. We knew Lowry and Dragic were good, but got rid of them for other reasons. Lowry was having well-publicized fights with McHale, and we traded him for a first round draft pick to try to get Dwight Howard during the offseason that he went to LAL (one year before we actually got him). We may have undervalued how good Dragic actually was going to be, but we did try to re-sign him. He wanted a 4th year player option, Morey wanted to preserve as much flexibility as possible. Which kind of made sense at the time because it looked like we were about to enter into some significant rebuilding, but it is definitely a mistake now. So we knew both those guys were good. Lin is much harder to get a read on. There are times when he looks good and other times when he doesn't. There are games (like game 5) when he will score 21 points off the bench, and other games when he dribbles into the middle of the lane without any purpose and then does some sort of goofy jump pass. I want him to succeed. I want him to improve. I would love for him to be our 6th man, spark plug off the bench. But I don't know if he is the best option for us on that or not.
Better than Lowry? Based on what? Lin had a 14.31 PER -- that's BELOW average. Lowry's was 20.20. Lin will probably put up more numbers on his new team. That affects the Rockets how? We need a PG that COMPLEMENTS Harden not one that is redundant to Harden like Lin. I would rather groom Canaan as the next starter than watch Harden/Lin's oil and water interaction again for another year. Jeremy Lin is getting better but is still not worth paying $8 million.
I think Dragic/Lowry/Lin will all be fringe top 10 PGs. I don't see Dragic and Lowry sustaining what they put up this year. Dragic wasn't great last season and Lowry is on a contract year. How will he play after getting PAID?
Parsons gets all his points off broken plays. Daniels has a breakout game and then we have no way of replicating it. We have 3 of the best PnR players in the league and run it less than most. Monta Ellis is not better than Harden talent wise, but he's playing better than Harden against a better defense, because he's playing within an actual system. Lin is a system player in a bad system. We don't do anything to emphasize his strengths, or hide his weaknesses. I would be surprised if he doesn't blow up somewhere else.
It's time to stop comparing Lin to Dragic/Harden. Lin doesn't have the skillsets of Dragic/Harden to be a true PG. All Lin has proven is he's a decent combo guard and 6th man. The Rockets shouldn't, don't have the time to waste another season by waiting out Lin's contract. They need to upgrade the team. Especially at the starting PG & PF positions.
On offense, Canaan can't do much of anything besides shoot and turn the ball over, and is horrible defensively. Yeah, our next starting point guard.
Lowry and Dragic left Houston as better players as they were when they joined us. Lin will be always Lin an up and down PG. Lowry might be difficult to handle for a Coach but he has more heart than Lin and Harden together.
Canaan is another player who needs to go to free up the roster. He's not a NBA level player. He might get there after a couple of seasons playing in Europe, maybe.
Harden's game doesn't work in the postseason. He doesn't have the speed/motor (Dwade) or agility/height advantage (Dirk, KD) to overcome perimeter iso-ball inefficiency. He has to develop a midrange/postup game or he has to play off the ball (both of which MJ/Kobe did). You cannot pair this dude with a Steve Kerr/Derek Fisher type. He's not good enough yet. He's Gilbert Arenas 2.0. Some defense will contain him to contested 3's and he'll either shoot us out of the playoffs or stand around forcing somebody else to be Iverson. He plays like this is an AAU allstar team and he still has Westbrook and KD to dump it off to. You pretty much have to go with another combo guard next to him. Lin-Harden is not as bad a fit as people want to make it sound. The **** was unstoppable in game 5 and the first half of game 6 when Harden didn't just stand around whenever someone else had the ball. Obviously a complete package like Dragic or Lowry would be better, but what offense wouldn't be better with those guys?
A "top 10" point guard that no team will take even if we give him away for free. Lmao get out of here with that ****.
I'm a fan of Lin but you need to stop with this. I do think that Lin could average around 16/6 on a bad team, but his field goal percentage would be in the lower 40s. And just because you have nice stats, that doesn't make you a top ten point guard. A lot of mediocre point guards can put up nice stats on a bad team (Brandon Jennings, Brandon Knight). If he can put up consistently nice stats on a winning team, then you could put him in the conversation for top 10. At this point, he may not even be top 20. However, I do think that if he and Parsons go to New York with Tyson Chandler, Amare, and decent shooters, the team has a chance of making the playoffs in the pathetic East
This. LOFs really need to stop. This is coming from a Lin fan. So what if some posters on CF don't think Lin is great. It's true that his numbers are depressed while playing in this system and with a ball dominant SG. At this point, most people already know this. Spouting how Lin would be a top 10 point guard only makes the situation worse in the GARM. Almost as bad as LOHs. I haven't been on CF frequently until Lin joined. I don't remember how it was before, but it seems that (by my limited lurking since the Yao days) CFers are bashing players more frequently now, at least since Lin joined as if to compensate for the inordinately amount of their Lin bashing by also bashing on other players just to appear they're being fair. Or maybe it's just me.
