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The case for starting Asik at the 4

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Sweet Lou 4 2, Aug 5, 2013.

  1. BeardSanity

    BeardSanity Member

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    You guys are making it seem like there will be a set in stone lineup. Either he starts the whole season or he doesn't.
    1st off I think for alot of the western teams we will see this, but then when u play a team like Miami, New York, other small ball teams, I think we will switch it up.

    Overall this lineup will work in spades, that's if McHale uses it correctly because once teams figure out how to strategically beat it, we will see more and more weaknesses to it.

    Another point for the twin towers is that it worked at the end of last year(and quite well), except now switch out smith for DH and you have yourself the biggest front courts in the nba. All the talk of spacing and stuff went out the drain.
     
  2. charles_zed

    charles_zed Member

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    Howard has no game outside of the low post; Harden, Lin & Parsons will struggle for to get into the lane with the paint packed with players daring Howard and Asik to shoot and beat them off the dribble.
     
  3. basketballholic

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    Asik and Howard in the lineup together is not a static thing. "When teams go small" then we have the ability to go small better. We had one of the best performing "small ball" lineups in the league last year. So, it's not like if the other team goes small we're stuck with Dwight and Asik out there. Remember, there are other players on the roster. Bringing up the "what are we going to do when other teams go small?" is not the right question. It's a non-issue.

    The question is can Asik and Dwight thrive playing alongside each other for about 12-18 minutes a game?

    Dwight plays 30 minutes. (Yes, they are going to hold his minutes down to the low 30's.) And Asik plays 30 minutes. That's 12 minutes of overlap guys, 12 minutes. So, let's say Dwight plays 35 minutes. And Asik plays 30 minutes. That's 17 minutes of overlap. If Dwight/Asik are on the floor together for 12 minutes...that leaves 36 minutes for us to dicker around playing "small ball" or whatever. If they play 18 minutes together..that leaves 18 minutes for us to play "small ball". There's a lot of flexibility packed in to those minutes. It's not like every night they're going to play a certain amount of minutes. Some nights are going to portend towards Dwight playing minimal minutes if the game is a blow out. Some nights one of them is going to be in foul trouble so the other is going to get the vast majority of minutes in the pivot and we will have a bigger dose of "small ball".

    Guys, look at the big man combinations in the West. Now look at what happened to us last year against certain of those big man combinations.

    MEMPHIS: We went 1-3 against Memphis last year with Zach/Marc dominating Asik/whoever in the 3 losses.

    SPURS: 1-2 against the Spurs and we had to steal that win by 1 point with Manu shooting the Spurs down with his misses. Duncan and Splitter/whoever were better than our big combos.

    CLIPPERS: 1-2 against the Clippers with the one win coming with Smith playing alongside Asik and causing Clips bigs problems inside. In the 2 losses we were "stretching the floor".

    OKC: 1-2 with the one win coming with Thabeet starting in the middle with IBaka. To be fair here, Asik/Morris/Patterson did statistically outperform OKC's bigs (Perk/Ibaka/whoever) in the 2 losses, but we were at a loss defensively on their perimeter guys with Asik the lone paint protector.

    Nuggets: 0-3 guys with Faried/Koufas combo beating our bigs on the interior. Faried single-handedly wrecked us. He's a garbage man.

    Lakers: We went 2-2 agaisnt them. In their 2 wins Dwight/Pau simply killed Asik/PPat/Mook/whoever. In our 2 wins, Gasol didn't play either game and Dwight didn't play one game. So we won 2 games against them playing against Sacre and company. But when their 2 bigs were playing....they absolutely torched us.

    Warriors: We did punk them 3-1. First game was the epic 3-point shooting game. Their primary big combination was Bogut/Lee. Lee plays no defense whatsoever and Bogut really was dinged most of the season. Statistically we were pretty much a wash against them on the interior with our stretch 4 dominating Lee shooting in the corner. The Warriors are essentially us when Bogut goes off the floor. They had no interior D. Lee can't stop anything. Hence all the perimeter guys cheating off and letting our shooters light it up. We basically beat a team that was constructed similar to us defensively. No D when Bogut leaves the floor.


    That's a 9-15 record against last year's playoff teams. And every one of those teams plays power ball in the paint with 2 bigs. And if you take away the outlier (GS) that's a 6-14 record against the top playoff teams in the West. And if you take away the 2 wins against the Lakers when they weren't playing their 2 bigs..then we were 4-14 against the rest.

    We all know that our greatest weakness last year was when Asik went off the floor because we had no other defensively dominant paint defender. That problem is now solved. So we know that even if Dwight and Asik do not play a minute on the floor together that we will have 48 minutes of top-notch paint defense on the floor every game..provided both guys are healthy.

    Secondly, all of these teams in front of us....play power basketball at the power spots. They beat us playing power ball while we were playing "small ball" spreading the floor with our stretch 4s. If you take away our 2 wins against the Lakers when they were playing small and Dwight and/Pau were out...we went 4-14 against teams that play power ball in the paint. And that's with 2 power bigs starting and playing together major minutes.

    So, is there 12-18 minutes a game when Dwight and Asik can play together????????? In my opinion, no question about it.

    Probably what is going to happen is we are going to have a starting lineup that adjusts from time to time depending on who we are playing. I think what will develop here is we will see Dwight/Asik starting against teams like the above (save for possibly GS) and we will possibly see Asik coming off the bench for some matchups when it makes sense for us to have a smaller lineup on the floor.

    There are 96 minutes available at the 4/5 spots. That's enough for 3 rotation guys playing 30 minutes a night and then some leftovers. Dwight and Asik will get around 60 of those minutes. It'll be up to DMO/TJones to grab another 25-30. And DMo/TJones could be a great contrast if they can get the 3-ball working. Especially TJones because he is a better defender and will ALWAYS be a better defender than DMo. So, if TJones really steps up and knocks down that corner 3 ball at a high clip...then essentially our problems are solved at the big man spots. But if he doesn't (and I'm afraid he's always going to be a mediocre shooter from distance), then we're still looking for that third contrasting big that can spread the floor offensively out while giving us good D.
     
    #83 basketballholic, Aug 7, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2013
  4. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    What all this boils down to is that McHale will try them both on the floor at the same time. Everyone agrees that the Rockets will take a look. If it works well - ie. if the positive outcomes out weigh the disadvantages - we will see more of them together. Otherwise we will still see them on the floor together occasionally, but only for certain match ups. But one way or another in 3 months this question will be fully answered.
     
  5. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    great post OP, but i disagree. The future of the 4 position in the NBA is moving towards faster big men, who have the ability to step out and hit from range. Asik isn't the post player, nor the range shooter to play the 4 in today's NBA. Also, his defensive advantage would be negated some by having to guard quicker guys. I just don't see it. While i'd love to be a rebounding all-star team, today's PFs have to have a pretty well-rounded game ...Asik does not. He's the prototypical center, and a damn good one at that. He'll back Howard up for 17 minutes until another team decides they're willing to pay to get him.

    btw: if there was a 4 out of the two, it would be Dwight, not Asik. So for those who are obsessed with the idea of playing Asik and Dwight together, i think it's Howard that would more suited for the 4 role than Asik...not that i'm advocating for playing them together.
     
    #85 Aruba77, Aug 7, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2013
  6. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    This is a very strong point and something people seem to ignore.

    The reason teams play small ball isn't because it's in vogue - it's because they aren't many talented big men in the league like there was in the 80's and 90's and the way to make up for that is to create the "stretch 4".
     
  7. basketballholic

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    Right. And we played it last year to the hilt to increase the "variance" factor that Morey spoke of. We knew we had no second big. We had no backup 5 to effectively defend the paint when Asik went out. So to increase variance we played small and spread the floor and used our 4 as essentially a second 3 to shoot the 3 ball. That did work and will continue to work in our favor against over half the league....the bottom half.

    But when you go up against the elite teams....you gotta bring it in the paint for all 48 minutes. You can still stretch the floor with a stretch 4 but you gotta have SOMETHING on the interior defensively against the top echelon teams for all 48 minutes.

    Now, I'm sure somebody is going to bring up Miami. But look at Miami. They have 2 dominant defensive bigs playing together for major minutes..Birdman and Bosh. Not to mention James is an all-world player who can defend any position.
     
  8. qetwr111

    qetwr111 Member

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    lol guys like Love/Aldridge/Griffin/Lebron/Melo/Smoove/etc etc would totally welcome this move.

    Asik is going to be moved. And for far lower value than everyone here thinks. Book it.
     
  9. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Yup - I think Asik & Howard will be on the floor together for to start the game and then after that whenever it makes sense based on the foul situation and the way the game unfolds.

    But there's no reason not to start them together and start the game by totally shutting down the interior. Forcing teams to play a perimeter game early is very smart because if their shooters aren't hitting then they simply won't score and we can get off to a decent lead. And really Asik is able to step out and defend a stretch 4 if it's necessary - I've seen him do it many times - people underestimate his ability to move because of his size and awkwardness.

    What a lot of people forget is when you are playing defense and the ball is at the top of the 3 point line, you have basically 3 or 4 guys surrounding the paint. With defenders playing inbetween the 3 point line and the paint - basically a zone and being able to help on the paint or the 3 point line with just two steps.

    I think people are over blowing Asik ability to defend a 4.

    The bigger concern with Asik is more endurance as he may tire a bit faster playing the 4. That I could see. But that's no excuse for an NBA player.
     
  10. basketballholic

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    I am not worried about Asik's ability to defend any 4 or 5 in the league. Now, he may struggle a bit against some of the "stretch 4s" but Asik has amazingly fast feet and he's long. There was video of him earlier in this thread of him being iso'd on the perimeter. His perimeter D was better than 99% of the players in the league. It's ridiculous to say he can't play defense out on the perimeter against 4's and it's ridiculous to say him and Dwight can't play great D together. They would be tremendous defensively against virtually every matchup. There may be a few matchups where we'd have to go with someone else defensively and only have one of Asik or Howard in there but not many. Perhaps ultra-small lineup where the opponent is playing a couple point guards and a shooting guard and a small forward. That particular configuration may give Dwight and Asik problems defensively. But those are true gimmick lineups that do not work for major minutes.

    The challenge with playing Asik and Dwight together is on the offensive end only. The thrust of the conversation about them playing together should center around how to get them to be most efficient and productive on the offensive end.

    We all know Asik has poor hands...especially catching in traffic or when he has to stretch himself and attempt to capture the ball one-handed. He has relatively small hands for a man his size. That's never going to change. On top of that, there's a little misfire between his brain and his hands when it comes to executing offensively with speed. That's never going to change. Reflexology and coordination are things that can only be incrementally improved. So, in my opinion, Asik is NEVER going to be the guy down low offensively.

    On the other hand, Dwight......huge mits....great hands, he's the guy down low. But Dwight has poor shot control outside of 3 feet. And that's never going to change. Dwight is a straight power guy offensively. He's never going to develop good shooting form or a silky touch outside of the low block.

    And yet on the other hand....we have seen small glimpses of Asik's ability to catch up high and line up a decent looking set jump shot while the defense fades away from him. Just tiny glimpses, mind you, but all the same, the form is there, and he's got the size to execute it. His set shot jumper is a less-smooth version of Yao's set shot jumper out there.

    So knowing these things why would we even consider putting Dwight out high and Asik down low??? That would be plum stupid. The logical move is to see what we can develop offensively with Asik up high and Dwight down low.

    So...let's consider some of the options:

    Option 1: Pick and roll with Harden and Dwight. What do you do with Asik? Well, first of all...Harden is a lefty. So, the pick and roll is going to genesis from the left side of the floor almost every time. Asik should then be on the right side of the floor, free throw line extended. If the D cheats off him early...throw him the ball and see how the D responds. If they sit (most probable) then let him line up the little set jumper and take it. See if he can knock it down at 55% or so. This is the most likely and the worst possible outcome of the possession. But guess what? If we discover that Asik can knock down that set jump shot at a 55% clip.....it's going to force the D to make an adjustment. And then we are one to other options with defenders running at Asik and him throwing the ball over the top of them.

    So, let's say Harden and Dwight go through with the Pick and Roll action and they take both their men into the restricted area and Asik's man is trailing down there too to make it a 2 on 3 situation. Asik simply trails in takes the dump off and crams it. That's not catching in traffic. He's catching the ball as the traffic is collapsing under the rim.

    Option 2: Harden and Asik running pick and pop with Dwight hanging out down low. Harden left side. Dwight right low block. Asik comes up from left baseline, sets pick and drifts out high and to the right. Both defenders go with Harden, back out to Asik, Dwight slides into a post up, Asik throws it down and there you go. Dwight's man can't leave him to help on Harden. That's suicide. He's stuck trying to keep Dwight from getting post position. If Asik gets the ball high and his man is effectively doubling Dwight down low, well we're back to to Asik up high again. Line up the little set jumper ..... or ..... throw it up top to Jeremy and run another quick pick and pop with Harden circling out to the corner and back up top as Dwight moves to the left block.


    These are just a few rough sketch ideas on how to use Asik and Dwight together offensively. I firmly believe that using Asik high and Dwight low in different variations is the way to explore the combination. I think it's waste of time to try Dwight high and Asik low. I think our offensive development with the two bigs together should take on some form of Asik high Dwight low.

    Here's Asik's shooting charts from last year. Just small sample sizes from the free throw line extended right but you see the results. He hasn't shot a lot of midrange jumpers but for the attempts he has taken he has done well with them. And you can see he has decent enough form when he shoots it that it needs to be explored.

    http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/player/shotchart/1127-Omer-Asik/season/2012-2013-REG?ui=zone14
     
  11. basketballholic

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    One more point on Asik up high offensively. I laid out the worst possible scenarios above where Asik winds up with the ball up high and shooting it. That's the last options that we would go to. Asik is one of the best pick and screen setters in the NBA. The way he would be used out high is mostly setting picks and screens. He sets a pick for Harden and immediately goes and sets a pick for Lin, etc. In a more advanced complex offense that you really can't describe in writing without pages of text, the options I listed above would only come about after 2 or 3 other options had been gone through. I'm just trying to lay out the sketch of what it would look like it it's worst form for all those of you fearing the spacing problem. I think Asik is in his infancy as a high-post center.
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. rocketfan_tim

    rocketfan_tim Member

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    I think having Howard and Asik in at the same time is a positive on both offense and defense. With their height that means more offensive rebounds and second chance points. Asik has always been a great supporting players with the ability to rebound. So I like him as the clean up player, he doesn't need any designed plays for him.
     
  13. QuaDouble

    QuaDouble Member

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    I would like to minimize their time on the court together as much as possible, and there should never be a time when one of them is not on the court.

    I am fine with trading Asik for value, and fine for keeping Asik if that value is not forthcoming. To me value floors at Ryan Anderson and and a backup center/guard for Asik and whatever 4 we like the least. It ceilings at LMA.

    Under that range... have a first class big man on the floor at all times, which very few teams can do.
     
  14. IBTL

    IBTL Member

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    Howard was elite defense and so was asik last year. Why deny that tandem?

    Especially when the options are howard /smith , howard casspi etc etc.

    The fact that you guys are overlooking the opportunity to have 2 elite defenders on the court at the same time, and worried about FT and clogging the lane it is absolutely absurd to me.

    You play the best 5. This is basketball. Positions are overrated. You dont think we can play a zone? You dont think wing defense and asik stepping out on nowitzski or kevin love is gonna be possible since youve never heard of help defense?

    You dont think asik can set inside picks? You dont think asik can pass? You truly think they are just gonna fall off asik and give him dunks all day? I mean he has more offensive game than many his size. How much worse is asik offense than jones or smith? Surely it can't be THAT bad you are saying. Some of you really make asik out to be a real turd.
     
  15. IBTL

    IBTL Member

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    the defensive and rebounding production we would get with howard and asik at the same time is off the charts.
     
  16. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    And how are you isolating the talent disparity in these match ups? OKC, Memphis, Spurs, Clips all had more talent on their rosters. How did you conclude that it was big front lines and not just more talent influencing the results? Just asking. The Rockets were pretty miserable against all of the top teams last season.

    http://www.82games.com/1213/1213HOU4.HTM
     
  17. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I think a lot of you are underestimating Asik's foot speed. I think he can guard most of the PFs in the league, stretch of not. Those he can't guard cannot be guarded by anyone anyway. And if the opponent play small ball, we have plenty of small ball options. It's not like you can't sub him out on match ups.

    Both Asik and Howard are fast enough to defend on the perimeter. The reason why you don't want your center to go out so far is because you don't want to leave your back door wide open, and you worry about defensive rebounding. But if you have the two guys on the floor at the same time, you have no such fear.
     
  18. IBTL

    IBTL Member

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    yeah and thats 2 guys that are elite defense. Howard was MVP and Asik is playing defense inside at an elite level last year.

    And for some reason this bbs wants to sit one of them and not play at same time?

    MIND BOGGLED
     
  19. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I agree that many underestimate Asik's foot speed. I've been watching a few games lately from last season still on my DVRs, and the big guy can move. No, there isn't much in the way of grace there when he does (we're all a bit spoiled in that department, historically), but he definitely bothers perimeter players. The guy is an actual BIG 7 footer, and the sight of the Mad Turk rumbling hell for leather at them does bother their shot. Those of us who've watched a lot of games have seen him do it time and time again. Sure, having the two together may not end up being an option we want to use a lot, but I can't wait to see the experiment.
     
  20. IBTL

    IBTL Member

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    I feel like I am becoming a TTOF

    Twin towers only fan
     

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