You are the one claiming the formula is valid even though it isn't I already told you it's complete nonsense. if you don't have the brains to check it yourself and find out the truth, then I'm not wasting any time on it with you. Just go ahead and keep believing whatever made up nonsense you read. ESPN counts on people like that. Unbelievable.
It is from a major news source. If you want to slander it, do some work or shut up. As expected, you are unwilling to even do a simple test to see if your accusations have any merit.
Ah yes, back to the ad hominem attacks. Call a reporter turned basketball executive a liar and then me lazy....Thank you for ignoring me.
Rudy Fernandez, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Sarunas Jasikevicius all say hello. And those aren't just some random guards, they were some of Europe's best and brightest spending some prime years here.
Fernandez had two full seasons in the NBA shooting under 38% from the field. Jasikevicius was a career 39.7% from the field. Navarro shot a blistering 40.2% in his single year. These men are elite and efficient scorers in Europe, routinely posting TS percentages over 60%. But you're right, other than having career lows (or near) in points per game, points per minute, PER, TS%, and eFG% their performance in the NBA is very similar to their performance overseas.
JR just created a new thread for that. I'm more interested in the insider article of how Pelton did in his WARP analysis for the past drafts.
Spoilers are super long (for some odd reason). Link On Monday, I shared the results of my WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) projections for the prospects in this year's NBA draft. Today, I'm taking a step back to explain more details about the process and look at what the same ratings said about past drafts. Translated stats I've been working on college stat translations for a decade now, and they've appeared as projections in the "Pro Basketball Prospectus" annuals. In theory, the method is simple. I take 14 statistical categories that sum up the box score, all of them pace-adjusted, and look at how much players drop off between the NCAA and the NBA. Players tend to see the biggest drop in their block rate (down by more than half), while they actually commit fewer turnovers at the NBA level because they tend to handle the ball less frequently. There's one important additional layer, and that's accounting for strength of schedule (measured by KenPom.com's SOS) to ensure that players from small colleges aren't overrated. Schedule has historically been most important for translating usage rate and free throw rate, two places where players from small schools see much bigger declines than their major-conference counterparts. A smaller adjustment is applied to all other stats. While the basics remain the same, in the course of preparing for this year's draft projections I overhauled the translations, including using multiple years of college stats rather than just the most recent season. Here were a few key findings: • The game has changed: Because both the NBA and NCAA games are constantly evolving, it turns out that using 2000-07 multipliers to build the translations was creating problems for modern players. These mostly relate to the 3-pointer. Since the NCAA moved the 3-point line back, players have lost less of their 3-point percentage coming to the NBA. And with NBA teams shooting more 3s, college players are shooting free throws and drawing fouls less frequently relative to their college performance. To solve this problem, I now base the multipliers on the previous five seasons, weighted more heavily to recent years. • Small schools, big game: Some of the players most underrated by the translations in recent years were products of the mid-majors such as Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard. When I updated the database, I had to shrink the strength of schedule adjustment to improve accuracy. • Early performance matters: When I began incorporating multiple seasons, I anticipated that the most recent campaign would predict NBA performance best. Instead, I found the opposite. In the past, Per Diem predecessor John Hollinger noted that players coming off a down season tended to do better than expected, but I found the effect both ways. How prospects perform at a young age appears more telling than whether they dominate younger opponents as upperclassmen. Together, the changes doubled the amount of variation in rookie-year performance predicted by college translations among players from the past four seasons while simultaneously improving the predictive power of previous translations. WARP projections To put together the rookie projections and age, I use a regression involving all the players in my database, which features some players going all the way back to the 2003 draft and everyone from the 2006 draft onward. These factors are regressed against players' WARP averages over their first five seasons, adjusted to weight early performance more heavily. Future seasons are discounted by a factor of 10 percent per year, which makes it slightly easier to compare players at different stages of their careers and rewards immediate contributions. Age ends up making up about 40 percent of the final WARP projection, with translated performance accounting for the other 60 percent. Past draft boards Let's take a look at how the updated version of the system has rated past drafts. To be clear, this is not an indicator of how well WARP projections will assess this year's draft. Although my method makes it difficult to overfit the data, I'm still building the model around how these players have actually performed, meaning the system knows the results when it guesses how they will do. That said, looking at past drafts can give an idea of what the WARP projections look for in prospects and the range of typical scores. I've also included players' actual five-year WARP totals (again, adjusted to discount future performance) to give an idea of how close the projections were. For each draft, I've also highlighted a pair of players whose stats were better indicators than where they were taken and two more the scouts got right. 2012 Spoiler <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Pick</th> <th>Name</th> <th>From</th> <th>Win%</th> <th>WARPp</th> <th>WARP</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>1</td> <td>Anthony Davis</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.570</td> <td>5.5</td> <td>8.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>21</td> <td>Jared Sullinger</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>.491</td> <td>3.1</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>35</td> <td>Draymond Green</td> <td>Michigan St.</td> <td>.521</td> <td>2.8</td> <td>-1.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>34</td> <td>Jae Crowder</td> <td>Marquette</td> <td>.509</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>3</td> <td>Bradley Beal</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.436</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>2.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>4</td> <td>Dion Waiters</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>.456</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>6</td> <td>Damian Lillard</td> <td>Weber St.</td> <td>.486</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>6.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>18</td> <td>Terrence Jones</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.452</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>59</td> <td>Marcus Denmon</td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>.489</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>23</td> <td>John Jenkins</td> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>.461</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>58</td> <td>Robbie Hummel</td> <td>Purdue</td> <td>.504</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>9</td> <td>Andre Drummond</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.406</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>7.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>53</td> <td>Furkan Aldemir</td> <td>Galatasaray</td> <td>.433</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>14</td> <td>John Henson</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.445</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>2.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>25</td> <td>Tony Wroten</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>.391</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>2</td> <td>Michael Kidd-Gilchrist</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.381</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>15</td> <td>Maurice Harkless</td> <td>St. John's</td> <td>.387</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>12</td> <td>Jeremy Lamb</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.406</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>39</td> <td>Khris Middleton</td> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>.423</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>5</td> <td>Thomas Robinson</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.426</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>-0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>48</td> <td>Kostas Papanikolaou</td> <td>Olympiacos</td> <td>.436</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>49</td> <td>Kyle O'Quinn</td> <td>Norfolk St.</td> <td>.438</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>24</td> <td>Jared Cunningham</td> <td>Oregon St.</td> <td>.410</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>13</td> <td>Kendall Marshall</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.402</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>-0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>40</td> <td>Will Barton</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.412</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>-1.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>32</td> <td>Tomas Satoransky</td> <td>Sevilla</td> <td>.394</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>38</td> <td>Quincy Miller</td> <td>Baylor</td> <td>.369</td> <td>0.6</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>8</td> <td>Terrence Ross</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>.404</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>7</td> <td>Harrison Barnes</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.375</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-1.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>37</td> <td>Quincy Acy</td> <td>Baylor</td> <td>.409</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>54</td> <td>Tornike Shengelia</td> <td>Spirou Charleroi</td> <td>.380</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>27</td> <td>Arnett Moultrie</td> <td>Mississippi St.</td> <td>.398</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>17</td> <td>Tyler Zeller</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.416</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>-2.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>36</td> <td>Orlando Johnson</td> <td>UC Santa Barbara</td> <td>.434</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>56</td> <td>Tomislav Zubcic</td> <td>Cibona Zagreb</td> <td>.412</td> <td>0.2</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>28</td> <td>Perry Jones</td> <td>Baylor</td> <td>.370</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>-0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>29</td> <td>Marquis Teague</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.333</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>10</td> <td>Austin Rivers</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.345</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-4.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>42</td> <td>Doron Lamb</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.361</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-2.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>11</td> <td>Meyers Leonard</td> <td>Illinois</td> <td>.354</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>46</td> <td>Darius Miller</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.395</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>19</td> <td>Andrew Nicholson</td> <td>St. Bonaventure</td> <td>.399</td> <td>-0.2</td> <td>-0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>22</td> <td>Fab Melo</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>.378</td> <td>-0.4</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>51</td> <td>Kris Joseph</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>.410</td> <td>-0.4</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>41</td> <td>Tyshawn Taylor</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.376</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>-0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>31</td> <td>Jeff Taylor</td> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>.389</td> <td>-0.7</td> <td>-0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>30</td> <td>Festus Ezeli</td> <td>Vanderbilt</td> <td>.378</td> <td>-0.7</td> <td>-0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>55</td> <td>Darius Johnson-Odom</td> <td>Marquette</td> <td>.377</td> <td>-0.8</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>60</td> <td>Robert Sacre</td> <td>Gonzaga</td> <td>.382</td> <td>-0.8</td> <td>-0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>44</td> <td>Kim English</td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>.384</td> <td>-1.1</td> <td>-0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>43</td> <td>Mike Scott</td> <td>Virginia</td> <td>.387</td> <td>-1.2</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>33</td> <td>Bernard James</td> <td>Florida St.</td> <td>.438</td> <td>-1.7</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>47</td> <td>Kevin Murphy</td> <td>Tennessee Tech</td> <td>.325</td> <td>-1.8</td> <td>-0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>26</td> <td>Miles Plumlee</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.353</td> <td>-1.9</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Hits: Austin Rivers, Meyers Leonard Two lottery picks were projected for negative WARP over their first five seasons. There's still a ways to go, but both Leonard and particularly Rivers struggled as rookies. Additionally, Thomas Robinson's middling translation nearly exactly pegged his stats last season. Misses: Jae Crowder, Draymond Green Crowder and Green contributed as rookies, but -- Green's playoff run aside -- weren't the instant successes their numbers indicated. Harrison Barnes may eventually find his way on this list, but his advanced stats during the regular season were no better than his pessimistic translation suggested. 2011 Spoiler <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Pick</th> <th>Name</th> <th>From</th> <th>Win%</th> <th>WARPp</th> <th>WARP</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>22</td> <td>Kenneth Faried</td> <td>Morehead St.</td> <td>.604</td> <td>5.1</td> <td>6.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>1</td> <td>Kyrie Irving</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.514</td> <td>4.2</td> <td>7.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>2</td> <td>Derrick Williams</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>.492</td> <td>3.3</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>23</td> <td>Nikola Mirotic</td> <td>Real Madrid</td> <td>.482</td> <td>2.9</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>12</td> <td>Alec Burks</td> <td>Colorado</td> <td>.464</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>5</td> <td>Jonas Valanciunas</td> <td>Lietuvos Rytas</td> <td>.446</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>1.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>15</td> <td>Kawhi Leonard</td> <td>San Diego St.</td> <td>.459</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>5.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>10</td> <td>Jimmer Fredette</td> <td>Brigham Young</td> <td>.502</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>4</td> <td>Tristan Thompson</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.453</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>1.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>24</td> <td>Reggie Jackson</td> <td>Boston College</td> <td>.461</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>34</td> <td>Shelvin Mack</td> <td>Butler</td> <td>.460</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>9</td> <td>Kemba Walker</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.458</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>6.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>48</td> <td>Keith Benson</td> <td>Oakland</td> <td>.494</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>27</td> <td>JaJuan Johnson</td> <td>Purdue</td> <td>.483</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>-0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>49</td> <td>Josh Selby</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.431</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>-0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>37</td> <td>Trey Thompkins</td> <td>Georgia</td> <td>.447</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>26</td> <td>Jordan Hamilton</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.436</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>8</td> <td>Brandon Knight</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.411</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>30</td> <td>Jimmy Butler</td> <td>Marquette</td> <td>.458</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>2.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>40</td> <td>Jon Leuer</td> <td>Wisconsin</td> <td>.465</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>47</td> <td>Travis Leslie</td> <td>Georgia</td> <td>.445</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>54</td> <td>Milan Macvan</td> <td>Maccabi Tel Aviv</td> <td>.452</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>14</td> <td>Marcus Morris</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.446</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>32</td> <td>Justin Harper</td> <td>Richmond</td> <td>.446</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>25</td> <td>Marshon Brooks</td> <td>Providence</td> <td>.458</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>-0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>18</td> <td>Chris Singleton</td> <td>Florida St.</td> <td>.439</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>-1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>19</td> <td>Tobias Harris</td> <td>Tennessee</td> <td>.381</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>33</td> <td>Kyle Singler</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.470</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>-1.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>29</td> <td>Cory Joseph</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.399</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>50</td> <td>Lavoy Allen</td> <td>Temple</td> <td>.454</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>-0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>36</td> <td>Jordan Williams</td> <td>Maryland</td> <td>.415</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>51</td> <td>Jon Diebler</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>.464</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>13</td> <td>Markieff Morris</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.438</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>17</td> <td>Iman Shumpert</td> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>.420</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>35</td> <td>Tyler Honeycutt</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.419</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>16</td> <td>Nikola Vucevic</td> <td>Southern California</td> <td>.412</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>3.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>11</td> <td>Klay Thompson</td> <td>Washington St.</td> <td>.425</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>2.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>45</td> <td>Josh Harrellson</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.442</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>20</td> <td>Donatas Motiejunas</td> <td>Treviso</td> <td>.400</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>44</td> <td>Charles Jenkins</td> <td>Hofstra</td> <td>.432</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>-1.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>7</td> <td>Bismack Biyombo</td> <td>Fuenlabrada</td> <td>.422</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>-1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>38</td> <td>Chandler Parsons</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.439</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>3.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>6</td> <td>Jan Vesely</td> <td>Partizan</td> <td>.420</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>55</td> <td>E'Twaun Moore</td> <td>Purdue</td> <td>.419</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>-0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>60</td> <td>Isaiah Thomas</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>.419</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>5.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>41</td> <td>Darius Morris</td> <td>Michigan</td> <td>.377</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>-0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>28</td> <td>Norris Cole</td> <td>Cleveland St.</td> <td>.418</td> <td>0.2</td> <td>-3.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>46</td> <td>Andrew Goudelock</td> <td>College of Charleston</td> <td>.408</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>-0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>31</td> <td>Bojan Bojdanovic</td> <td>Cibona Zagreb</td> <td>.398</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>43</td> <td>Malcolm Lee</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.366</td> <td>-0.2</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>21</td> <td>Nolan Smith</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.392</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>-1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>53</td> <td>DeAndre Liggins</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.355</td> <td>-1.6</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>52</td> <td>Vernon Macklin</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.372</td> <td>-1.9</td> <td>0.3</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Hits: Kenneth Faried, Kawhi Leonard Reducing the schedule adjustment bumped Faried to the top of this list. (Kyrie Irving was great when he played at Duke, but the injury that limited his minutes hurt his projection slightly.) That's a lot closer to where he would go if we redrafted than 22nd overall. Leonard, a top-10 pick by the stats, dropped to 15th to the benefit of San Antonio and detriment of the rest of the Western Conference. Misses: Jimmer Fredette, Chandler Parsons While the adjustments helped overall, they also turned Fredette into a top-10 prospect, which he's yet to demonstrate in the NBA. Parsons and fellow second-round steal Isaiah Thomas have both outplayed their projections. 2010 Spoiler <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Pick</th> <th>Name</th> <th>From</th> <th>Win%</th> <th>WARPp</th> <th>WARP</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>5</td> <td>DeMarcus Cousins</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.523</td> <td>4.1</td> <td>5.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>7</td> <td>Greg Monroe</td> <td>Georgetown</td> <td>.495</td> <td>3.3</td> <td>8.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>9</td> <td>Gordon Hayward</td> <td>Butler</td> <td>.498</td> <td>3.3</td> <td>2.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>11</td> <td>Cole Aldrich</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.519</td> <td>3.1</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>33</td> <td>Hassan Whiteside</td> <td>Marshall</td> <td>.493</td> <td>2.8</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>12</td> <td>Xavier Henry</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.450</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>-1.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>3</td> <td>Derrick Favors</td> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>.440</td> <td>2.6</td> <td>3.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>14</td> <td>Patrick Patterson</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.483</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>10</td> <td>Paul George</td> <td>Fresno St.</td> <td>.458</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>6.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>1</td> <td>John Wall</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.449</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>4.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>41</td> <td>Jarvis Varnado</td> <td>Mississippi St.</td> <td>.494</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>20</td> <td>James Anderson</td> <td>Oklahoma St.</td> <td>.468</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>29</td> <td>Daniel Orton</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.433</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>32</td> <td>Dexter Pittman</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.482</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>23</td> <td>Trevor Booker</td> <td>Clemson</td> <td>.485</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>1.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>31</td> <td>Tibor Pleiss</td> <td>Brose Basket</td> <td>.440</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>8</td> <td>Al-Farouq Aminu</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>.417</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>47</td> <td>Tiny Gallon</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>.408</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>25</td> <td>Dominique Jones</td> <td>South Florida</td> <td>.456</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>52</td> <td>Luke Harangody</td> <td>Notre Dame</td> <td>.471</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>44</td> <td>Jerome Jordan</td> <td>Tulsa</td> <td>.476</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>13</td> <td>Ed Davis</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.436</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>3.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>39</td> <td>Landry Fields</td> <td>Stanford</td> <td>.450</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>54</td> <td>Willie Warren</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>.417</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>43</td> <td>Devin Ebanks</td> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>.415</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>2</td> <td>Evan Turner</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>.436</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>-1.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>60</td> <td>Dwayne Collins</td> <td>Miami</td> <td>.446</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>15</td> <td>Larry Sanders</td> <td>Virginia Commonwealth</td> <td>.432</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>2.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>24</td> <td>Damion James</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.456</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>4</td> <td>Wesley Johnson</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>.460</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>-1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>50</td> <td>Solomon Alabi</td> <td>Florida St.</td> <td>.441</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>45</td> <td>Paulao Prestes</td> <td>Murcia</td> <td>.442</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>40</td> <td>Lance Stephenson</td> <td>Cincinnati</td> <td>.386</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>18</td> <td>Eric Bledsoe</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.395</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>1.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>46</td> <td>Gani Lawal</td> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>.417</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>38</td> <td>Andy Rautins</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>.460</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>16</td> <td>Luke Babbitt</td> <td>Nevada</td> <td>.400</td> <td>0.6</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>36</td> <td>Terrico White</td> <td>Mississippi</td> <td>.382</td> <td>0.6</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>6</td> <td>Ekpe Udoh</td> <td>Baylor</td> <td>.442</td> <td>0.6</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>27</td> <td>Jordan Crawford</td> <td>Xavier</td> <td>.409</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>55</td> <td>Jeremy Evans</td> <td>Western Kentucky</td> <td>.429</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>1.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>58</td> <td>Derrick Caracter</td> <td>Texas El Paso</td> <td>.417</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>28</td> <td>Greivis Vasquez</td> <td>Maryland</td> <td>.444</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>1.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>19</td> <td>Avery Bradley</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.356</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>-1.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>42</td> <td>Da'Sean Butler</td> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>.412</td> <td>0.2</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>22</td> <td>Elliot Williams</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.379</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>36</td> <td>Darington Hobson</td> <td>New Mexico</td> <td>.416</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>30</td> <td>Lazar Hayward</td> <td>Marquette</td> <td>.430</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>17</td> <td>Kevin Seraphin</td> <td>Cholet</td> <td>.364</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>-1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>35</td> <td>Nemanja Bjelica</td> <td>Zvezda</td> <td>.397</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>34</td> <td>Armon Johnson</td> <td>Nevada</td> <td>.374</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>59</td> <td>Stanley Robinson</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.387</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>26</td> <td>Quincy Pondexter</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>.384</td> <td>-0.4</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>56</td> <td>Hamady Ndiaye</td> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>.394</td> <td>-0.7</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>21</td> <td>Craig Brackins</td> <td>Iowa St.</td> <td>.375</td> <td>-0.8</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>51</td> <td>Magnum Rolle</td> <td>Louisiana Tech</td> <td>.403</td> <td>-1.0</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>57</td> <td>Ryan Reid</td> <td>Florida St.</td> <td>.324</td> <td>-2.5</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Hits: Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson Consider Turner and Johnson exhibits 1 and 1A when it comes to the importance of succeeding early in college. Both players developed into lottery picks late, but have disappointed in the NBA. Misses: John Wall, Hassan Whiteside John Calipari point guards have proven tough to evaluate statistically, but John Hollinger's Draft Rater did have Wall third, just after Turner. Of the run of busts near the top of the rankings, which also includes Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry, Whiteside was the one correctly figured out by scouts. 2009 Spoiler <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Pick</th> <th>Name</th> <th>From</th> <th>Win%</th> <th>WARPp</th> <th>WARP</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>37</td> <td>DeJuan Blair</td> <td>Pitt</td> <td>.569</td> <td>5.0</td> <td>2.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>3</td> <td>James Harden</td> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>.528</td> <td>4.2</td> <td>7.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>1</td> <td>Blake Griffin</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>.535</td> <td>4.2</td> <td>7.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>7</td> <td>Stephen Curry</td> <td>Davidson</td> <td>.544</td> <td>3.9</td> <td>8.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>5</td> <td>Ricky Rubio</td> <td>DKV Joventut</td> <td>.480</td> <td>3.7</td> <td>2.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>45</td> <td>Nick Calathes</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.490</td> <td>3.1</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>18</td> <td>Ty Lawson</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.506</td> <td>2.8</td> <td>5.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>17</td> <td>Jrue Holiday</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.448</td> <td>2.8</td> <td>3.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>46</td> <td>Danny Green</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.494</td> <td>2.3</td> <td>2.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>34</td> <td>Sergio Llull</td> <td>Real Madrid</td> <td>.482</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>4</td> <td>Tyreke Evans</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.438</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>3.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>2</td> <td>Hasheem Thabeet</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.487</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>24</td> <td>Byron Mullens</td> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>.436</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>10</td> <td>Brandon Jennings</td> <td>Lottomatica Roma</td> <td>.444</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>5.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>6</td> <td>Jonny Flynn</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>.426</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>-0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>13</td> <td>Tyler Hansbrough</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.494</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>44</td> <td>Chase Budinger</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>.437</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>2.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>58</td> <td>Lester Hudson</td> <td>Tennessee-Martin</td> <td>.518</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>8</td> <td>Jordan Hill</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>.450</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>31</td> <td>Jeff Pendergraph</td> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>.454</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>43</td> <td>Marcus Thornton</td> <td>LSU</td> <td>.449</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>3.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>55</td> <td>Patrick Mills</td> <td>St. Mary's</td> <td>.421</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>42</td> <td>Patrick Beverley</td> <td>Dnipro</td> <td>.421</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>1.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>21</td> <td>Darren Collison</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.438</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>2.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>16</td> <td>James Johnson</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>.449</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>20</td> <td>Eric Maynor</td> <td>VCU</td> <td>.439</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>47</td> <td>Henk Norel</td> <td>DKV Joventut</td> <td>.433</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>14</td> <td>Earl Clark</td> <td>Louisville</td> <td>.420</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>-0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>27</td> <td>DeMarre Carroll</td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>.452</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>41</td> <td>Jodie Meeks</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.427</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>1.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>11</td> <td>Terrence Williams</td> <td>Louisville</td> <td>.428</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>-0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>40</td> <td>Derrick Brown</td> <td>Xavier</td> <td>.423</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>32</td> <td>Jermaine Taylor</td> <td>Central Florida</td> <td>.437</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>35</td> <td>DaJuan Summers</td> <td>Georgetown</td> <td>.410</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>-0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>19</td> <td>Jeff Teague</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>.401</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>2.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>56</td> <td>Ahmad Nivins</td> <td>St. Joe's</td> <td>.430</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>28</td> <td>Wayne Ellington</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.409</td> <td>0.6</td> <td>-0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>22</td> <td>Victor Claver</td> <td>Valencia</td> <td>.392</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>50</td> <td>Goran Suton</td> <td>Michigan St.</td> <td>.458</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>38</td> <td>Jon Brockman</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>.421</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>59</td> <td>Chinemelu Elonu</td> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>.421</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>12</td> <td>Gerald Henderson Jr.</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.398</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>15</td> <td>Austin Daye</td> <td>Gonzaga</td> <td>.386</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>52</td> <td>A.J. Price</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.420</td> <td>0.2</td> <td>1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>23</td> <td>Omri Casspi</td> <td>Maccabi Tel Aviv</td> <td>.401</td> <td>0.2</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>60</td> <td>Robert Dozier</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.435</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>29</td> <td>Toney Douglas</td> <td>Florida State</td> <td>.426</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>1.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>57</td> <td>Emir Preldzic</td> <td>Fenerbahce</td> <td>.394</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>9</td> <td>DeMar DeRozan</td> <td>USC</td> <td>.352</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>-2.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>33</td> <td>Dante Cunningham</td> <td>Villanova</td> <td>.398</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>26</td> <td>Taj Gibson</td> <td>USC</td> <td>.434</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>2.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>36</td> <td>Sam Young</td> <td>Pitt</td> <td>.417</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>-0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>48</td> <td>Taylor Griffin</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>.376</td> <td>-1.0</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>54</td> <td>Robert Vaden</td> <td>UAB</td> <td>.382</td> <td>-1.4</td> <td>-</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>51</td> <td>Jack McClinton</td> <td>Miami</td> <td>.381</td> <td>-1.5</td> <td>-</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Hits: Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson Had David Kahn been using the current WARP projections, he surely would have taken Curry and maybe even held on to the rights to Lawson, drafted with a pick that originally belonged to the Timberwolves. Oh, and he might have considered Danny Green in the second round. Misses: Nick Calathes, Taj Gibson The other PG drafted by Minnesota (as part of a prearranged trade with Dallas) was a numbers favorite, but he has yet to arrive in the NBA after a solid but unspectacular career in Europe. Gibson is the ultimate outlier when it comes to the importance of age. Nearly 24 at the time he was drafted, Gibson has continued to develop with the Bulls. 2008 Spoiler <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Pick</th> <th>Name</th> <th>From</th> <th>Win%</th> <th>WARPp</th> <th>WARP</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>5</td> <td>Kevin Love</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.543</td> <td>4.6</td> <td>8.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>2</td> <td>Michael Beasley</td> <td>Kansas St.</td> <td>.499</td> <td>3.7</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>21</td> <td>Ryan Anderson</td> <td>California</td> <td>.464</td> <td>2.6</td> <td>6.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>34</td> <td>Mario Chalmers</td> <td>Kansastd> <td>.489</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>3.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>17</td> <td>Roy Hibbert</td> <td>Georgetown</td> <td>.475</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>3.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>19</td> <td>J.J. Hickson</td> <td>North Carolina St.</td> <td>.433</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>1.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>10</td> <td>Brook Lopez</td> <td>Stanford</td> <td>.439</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>4.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>23</td> <td>Kosta Koufos</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>.414</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>1</td> <td>Derrick Rose</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.416</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>5.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>15</td> <td>Robin Lopez</td> <td>Stanford</td> <td>.424</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>1.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>14</td> <td>Anthony Randolph</td> <td>Louisiana St.</td> <td>.395</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>1.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>12</td> <td>Jason Thompson</td> <td>Rider</td> <td>.459</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>16</td> <td>Marreese Speights</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.436</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>26</td> <td>George Hill</td> <td>IUPUI</td> <td>.462</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>2.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>11</td> <td>Jerryd Bayless</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>.410</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>7</td> <td>Eric Gordon</td> <td>Indiana</td> <td>.402</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>2.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>18</td> <td>JaVale McGee</td> <td>Nevada</td> <td>.417</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>3.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>28</td> <td>Donte Greene</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>.409</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>-0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>29</td> <td>D.J. White</td> <td>Indiana</td> <td>.438</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>4</td> <td>Russell Westbrook</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.389</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>8.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>35</td> <td>DeAndre Jordan</td> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>.394</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>2.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>9</td> <td>D.J. Augustin</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.403</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>2.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>27</td> <td>Darrell Arthur</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.394</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>52</td> <td>Darnell Jackson</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.432</td> <td>0.6</td> <td>-0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>47</td> <td>Bill Walker</td> <td>Kansas St.</td> <td>.389</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>3</td> <td>O.J. Mayo</td> <td>Southern California</td> <td>.383</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>1.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>38</td> <td>Kyle Weaver</td> <td>Washington St.</td> <td>.419</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>40</td> <td>Chris Douglas-Roberts</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.390</td> <td>0.2</td> <td>-0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>22</td> <td>Courtney Lee</td> <td>Western Kentucky</td> <td>.417</td> <td>0.2</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>48</td> <td>Malik Hairston</td> <td>Oregon</td> <td>.386</td> <td>0.2</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>42</td> <td>Sean Singletary</td> <td>Virginia</td> <td>.414</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>30</td> <td>J.R. Giddens</td> <td>New Mexico</td> <td>.421</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>8</td> <td>Joe Alexander</td> <td>West Virginia</td> <td>.378</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>13</td> <td>Brandon Rush</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.402</td> <td>-0.3</td> <td>0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>33</td> <td>Joey Dorsey</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.433</td> <td>-0.4</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>39</td> <td>Sonny Weems</td> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>.364</td> <td>-0.7</td> <td>-0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>37</td> <td>Luc Richard Mbah a Moute</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.357</td> <td>-0.8</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>58</td> <td>Joe Crawford</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.345</td> <td>-1.2</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Hits: Ryan Anderson, Mario Chalmers Anderson and Chalmers correctly rated as two of the draft's steals. From the other perspective, Joe Alexander's college numbers revealed him as nothing more than workout hype. Misses: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook J.J. Hickson was the only prospect badly overrated by the stats, and even he has posted decent individual numbers while struggling defensively. However, several young guards exceeded poor projections. Rose falls under the aforementioned Calipari exception, while Westbrook looked like nothing more than a defensive specialist before evolving into a dominant scorer in Oklahoma City. 2007 Spoiler <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Pick</th> <th>Name</th> <th>From</th> <th>Win%</th> <th>WARPp</th> <th>WARP</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>2</td> <td>Kevin Durant</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.480</td> <td>3.7</td> <td>9.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>1</td> <td>Greg Oden</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>.492</td> <td>3.6</td> <td>1.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>4</td> <td>Mike Conley</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>.460</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>3.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>17</td> <td>Sean Williams</td> <td>Boston College</td> <td>.471</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>3</td> <td>Al Horford</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.467</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>4.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>8</td> <td>Brandan Wright</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.436</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>1.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>15</td> <td>Rodney Stuckey</td> <td>Eastern Washington</td> <td>.466</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>1.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>9</td> <td>Joakim Noah</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.488</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>5.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>12</td> <td>Thaddeus Young</td> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>.416</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>2.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>34</td> <td>Nick Fazekas</td> <td>Nevada</td> <td>.479</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>37</td> <td>Josh McRoberts</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.430</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>19</td> <td>Javaris Crittenton</td> <td>Georgia Tech</td> <td>.411</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>-0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>5</td> <td>Jeff Green</td> <td>Georgetown</td> <td>.434</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>35</td> <td>Glen Davis</td> <td>Louisiana St.</td> <td>.447</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>-0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>20</td> <td>Jason Smith</td> <td>Colorado St.</td> <td>.443</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>10</td> <td>Spencer Hawes</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>.385</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>13</td> <td>Julian Wright</td> <td>Kansas</td> <td>.403</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>22</td> <td>Jared Dudley</td> <td>Boston College</td> <td>.436</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>2.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>7</td> <td>Corey Brewer</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.422</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>-0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>49</td> <td>Aaron Gray</td> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>.447</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>31</td> <td>Carl Landry</td> <td>Purdue</td> <td>.471</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>2.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>46</td> <td>Stephane Lasme</td> <td>Massachusetts</td> <td>.480</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>14</td> <td>Al Thornton</td> <td>Florida St.</td> <td>.445</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>-1.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>21</td> <td>Daequan Cook</td> <td>Ohio St.</td> <td>.369</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>33</td> <td>Marcus Williams</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>.375</td> <td>0.3</td> <td>0.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>23</td> <td>Wilson Chandler</td> <td>DePaul</td> <td>.359</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>47</td> <td>Dominic McGuire</td> <td>Fresno St.</td> <td>.387</td> <td>0.0</td> <td>-0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>56</td> <td>Ramon Sessions</td> <td>Nevada</td> <td>.375</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>2.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>26</td> <td>Aaron Brooks</td> <td>Oregon</td> <td>.401</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>1.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>59</td> <td>D.J. Strawberry</td> <td>Maryland</td> <td>.392</td> <td>-0.1</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>53</td> <td>Demetris Nichols</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>.402</td> <td>-0.2</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>36</td> <td>Jermareo Davidson</td> <td>Alabama</td> <td>.396</td> <td>-0.3</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>27</td> <td>Arron Afflalo</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.367</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>11</td> <td>Acie Law</td> <td>Texas A&M</td> <td>.370</td> <td>-0.8</td> <td>-0.5</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>41</td> <td>Chris Richard</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>.355</td> <td>-1.2</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>16</td> <td>Nick Young</td> <td>Southern California</td> <td>.334</td> <td>-1.4</td> <td>-1.2</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Hits: Acie Law, Rodney Stuckey An older prospect who came on late in his career, Law never could find a home in the NBA. Stuckey, who put up good numbers against inferior competition in the Big Sky conference, proved the better combo guard. Misses: Sean Williams, Aaron Brooks The same kinds of off-court issues that derailed Williams' college career also prevented him from sticking in the NBA. The analytical Rockets successfully went against the numbers in taking Brooks, another four-year player who boosted his draft stock as a senior. 2006 Spoiler <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Pick</th> <th>Name</th> <th>From</th> <th>Win%</th> <th>WARPp</th> <th>WARP</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>4</td> <td>Tyrus Thomas</td> <td>Louisiana St.</td> <td>.503</td> <td>3.6</td> <td>2.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>47</td> <td>Paul Millsap</td> <td>Louisiana Tech</td> <td>.519</td> <td>3.2</td> <td>4.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>5</td> <td>Shelden Williams</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.524</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>9</td> <td>Patrick O'Bryant</td> <td>Bradley</td> <td>.466</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>21</td> <td>Rajon Rondo</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>.442</td> <td>2.0</td> <td>6.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>20</td> <td>Renaldo Balkman</td> <td>South Carolina</td> <td>.475</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>8</td> <td>Rudy Gay</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.430</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>2.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>14</td> <td>Ronnie Brewer</td> <td>Arkansas</td> <td>.458</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>2.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>2</td> <td>LaMarcus Aldridge</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.450</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>4.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>17</td> <td>Shawne Williams</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.434</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>0.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>15</td> <td>Cedric Simmons</td> <td>North Carolina St.</td> <td>.436</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>26</td> <td>Jordan Farmar</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>.413</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>1.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>19</td> <td>Quincy Douby</td> <td>Rutgers</td> <td>.466</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>-0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>29</td> <td>Mardy Collins</td> <td>Temple</td> <td>.459</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>-0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>34</td> <td>Paul Davis</td> <td>Michigan St.</td> <td>.456</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>42</td> <td>Daniel Gibson</td> <td>Texas</td> <td>.420</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>6</td> <td>Brandon Roy</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>.449</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>6.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>22</td> <td>Marcus Williams</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.412</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>11</td> <td>J.J. Redick</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>.441</td> <td>1.1</td> <td>1.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>46</td> <td>Dee Brown</td> <td>Illinois</td> <td>.433</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>49</td> <td>Leon Powe</td> <td>California</td> <td>.445</td> <td>1.0</td> <td>1.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>36</td> <td>Craig Smith</td> <td>Boston College</td> <td>.446</td> <td>0.9</td> <td>1.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>3</td> <td>Adam Morrison</td> <td>Gonzaga</td> <td>.427</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>-1.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>7</td> <td>Randy Foye</td> <td>Villanova</td> <td>.442</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>16</td> <td>Rodney Carney</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>.428</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.2</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>45</td> <td>Alexander Johnson</td> <td>Florida St.</td> <td>.448</td> <td>0.6</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>12</td> <td>Hilton Armstrong</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.408</td> <td>0.5</td> <td>-0.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>23</td> <td>Josh Boone</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>.404</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>0.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>33</td> <td>Solomon Jones</td> <td>South Florida</td> <td>.409</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>-0.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>54</td> <td>Hassan Adams</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>.410</td> <td>0.4</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>37</td> <td>Bobby Jones</td> <td>Washington</td> <td>.408</td> <td>0.1</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow"> <td>39</td> <td>David Noel</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>.393</td> <td>-0.2</td> <td>-0.1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Hits: Paul Millsap, Adam Morrison Along with former Utah teammate Carlos Boozer, Millsap is one of the great triumphs for statistical scouting. Considered undersized for a power forward, Millsap has developed into a quality starter at the position. The numbers also picked out Rajon Rondo as undervalued. At the top of the draft, the one-dimensional Morrison (and Randy Foye) was doomed from the start. Misses: Patrick O'Bryant, Brandon Roy Sure, Tyrus Thomas as the No. 1 prospect (a spot he also held in the original version of Hollinger's Draft Rater) looks bad, but Thomas was at least a useful player in Chicago. O'Bryant rated below replacement level. Roy, meanwhile, was the rare four-year collegian who made massive improvement as a pro before knee problems prematurely ended his career.
The formula is for a lot of stats, not just PER. And you also claimed you cannot "cherry pick stats and players", then you did. Finally, the case where you used Spanoulis isn't even allowed under the formula's own rules, as it clearly states no players playing less than 500 minutes in the NBA can be used as a valid sample. I could cherry pick 15 guys or more with higher PER in Euroleague than NBA. The whole translation formula is not correct. That's a FACT. Just admit it and stop arguing.
Goran Dragic, Zaza Pachulia, Gary Neal, Ricky Rubio, Von Wafer, Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, Reggie Williams, etc., etc., etc. HUGE stats increased in NBA versus in Euroleague, plus many other such examples. And again..........the guys you listed did NOT have much different stats. Jasikevicius in fact had many seasons in Europe with worse stats than he did with the Pacers his first season in NBA. If you push this argument, you will get owned like nothing ever seen in this site's history.
I admit you are a liar. Fernandez's NBA and Euroleague stats are nothing a like which you said. You also lie about me cherry picking as I did not pick an example to fit my purpose. I took the first name and looked at PER since it is a combination of other stats knowing if the sum of the parts aren't similar, the parts aren't simlar. navarro's stats aren't anything alike either. So 2 of the three players who's stats are alike according to you, aren't. The fact that you are a liar is well documented. I know acknowledging trolls is bad form, but sometimes it is just so fun just seeing you grasp at straws. Please show 15 players with NBA and Euroleague time that prove the translation. All I ask is that they have at least 100 min in a season in each league. Be warned, I will enjoy rebutting.
Lol. Have you heard of development? The majority of your list were young developing players playing against men. The NBA used the Euroleague like they use NCAA for Rubio, Jennings. I have to say, you make me smile with your ability to "argue."
PER is a stat calculated from other stats. While not listed on official Euroleague on NBA websites, PER is calculated by others and is reported on websites like draft express. Back to Rocket Booster just because his silliness amuses me.. Rubio and Pachulia still have had better years in Euroleague than NBA using PER as the measure in seasons with at least 100 minutes. Dragic, Neal, and Jennings were very young players that developed more in the NBA. Dragic's first year in NBA was worse than the year before in Euroleague. His being a better NBA player results in him developing a three point shot. Von Wafer and Reggie Williams each only played three games in Euroleague. So, you got Ty Lawson as one player that has played better in the NBA than Euroleague from a guy that was mostly already developed. He was average in Euroleague and good in NBA. The Kristic's, Spanoullis's (better in Euroleague before and after NBA days), Fernandez's that are putting up great stats, but who's NBA careers were from struggled to slightly above average. Kristic did have a good NBA year, but not like his Euroleague career.
