NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

you out of all people should know a touchscreen can sometimes do things like that. it would only take someone with a half brain to bring that to the attention of an official.

 

It also only takes half a brain to read a little of the thread and realize that the person did that before taking the video, and the official didn't care.

 

the official initially did nothing about this. documenting something like this is important. here's what the guy who shot the video said:

http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/11/06/machine-turns-vote-for-obama-into-one-for-romney/

 

I'm genuinely curious...

To people who don't believe Nate Silver's analytics or think polls have liberal bias: where does your confidence come from? Gut feeling? Some prior evidence of Silver or most polls being biased? Can you show me that evidence of bias?

 

All he had to do was change booths. He doesn't have any video of any of the other claims he is making. Smells of desperation.

This has happened to numerous voters who tried to vote for Romney and Obama was selected. But they did the right thing in alerting officials and voting at another booth and having them recalibrate the machine. It happens every year.

 

the guy did the right thing. I am not sure what your gripe is, exactly.

Election officials have taken the machine out of service.

 

One Romney supporter not doubting Nate Silver:


Daryl Morey
@dmorey
yes RT @corbypage Do you expect @fivethirtyeight to prove the haters wrong tonight?

 

60/40.

 

At 3:47, you decide to put that out. Wow.

 

Can you give us any more of your valuable insight and jewels of wisdom regarding how election day has progressed so far?

I'm a little bored and could use a laugh.

 

08-24-2012, 12:39

 

At 12:00, you won't be able to post anymore. Wow.

 

Uh oh, guys. In Nate's final update (this AM), he dropped Obama's odds from 92.0% down to 90.9%. Here comes the 50-50!!! :grin:

 

Only nerds can understand each other. Yup...yup...

 

I saw that this morning. I was expecting an hourly 10% drop from noon until 4 or 5 pm EST but looks like that hasn't happened.

I expect to see a dramatic drop late night for ol' nate, who is probably in some backroom somewhere with his slide rule and pocket protector trying to fix his precious formulas. So a 10-11 PM 35% adjustment will have to do. *lol*

 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/live-blog-the-2012-presidential-election/

[rquoter]One source of debate this year was the charge that polls “oversampled” Democrats, meaning that they had more voters who identified as Democratic in the surveys than some conservatives expected would actually turn out to vote.

So far, however, Democrats also have an edge in the party identification numbers in the exit polls. In Ohio, 38 percent of voters identified as Democratic in the exit poll as compared with 31 percent of Republicans. And in Virginia, Democrats had a 37-to-33 advantage in party identification. These numbers are similar to what many pre-election polls showed.[/rquoter]

 

Nate Silver is about to become a very rich man.

 

Dat math!



(seems like he might be off for VA, though)

 

Just waiting for the big surprise post that says 'lol i changed my mind lol u can't make me lol'