The Solution? (Long Read)

We all know what the problem is. The reality of the dreaded "treadmill of mediocrity" has set in. The illusion of the possible- the maybe if- has dissolved into the startling realization that the Rockets remain a middling team. The Rockets are stuck in (not quite) suck.

Morey addressed the media today with the usual diatribe of "disappointment" "need for improvement" so on and so forth. He told us that this is a "bottom-line business" driven by results. And the results are in: This season, this team, was a bad idea. The ill-fated Gasol trade was a harbinger for such, yet another swing and miss in the litany of free agent and trade-me-now superstar relocations. The Houston Rockets as a collective (the fans, the city, the players, the front office, and the ownership) have not been able to acquire a big time player to effect a big time roster transformation.

Indeed this is a bottom-line business, and I would like the discussion to focus on it as such. This should not be a conversation of who's to blame; none of us really have all the information or know enough to point a finger. There are countless other threads in the GARM which provide free reign to be more than judge and jury. Instead, let's focus on results. I do not care who gets them; I care HOW we get them.

It surprises just how vociferous the We-Should-Have-Tanked crowd has gotten since the Rockets' playoff hopes were eliminated. No more than two weeks ago, as the Rockets sat pretty, there was nary a peep of tanking. You know what they say about hindsight. That's not to say there wasn't a fair amount who had come into this season with tanking banners flying high, only to slowly, silently recede into the background as the Rockets' success gave pause and a smaller glimmer of hope. Yet now, prior allegiances be damned, the fan base has overwhelmingly aligned to rewrite the past and cry "We should have tanked."

I will admit, once the commissioner bull****ted his way out of the Gasol trade, leaving Martin's sullied psyche in his wake (here is where I remind myself this is not the setting to place blame), I too was promoting as many Rockets' losses imaginable. But as the basketball season unfolded (both professionally and collegiately), I started to sing a different tune. After watching teams like the Bobcats, Wizards, Kings, Raptors, and Nets embarrass themselves on a nightly basis; and after watching the unashamed dedication to tanking the Warriors and Blazers demonstrated throughout the second half of the season, I came to realize the futility of those dreams of L's dancing in my head. I truly fail to believe that the Rockets, under any reasonable roster combination (RGV'ers included), could match those teams' ineptitude for an entire season. *As for the "tanking" towards developing youth argument, Marcus Morris certainly does have a case. And yet, the Rockets ended up playing/developing a rookie at his position anyway.* Meanwhile, in college towns across America, the supposed depth of this draft class wilted away until there remained only one sure-fire prospect. I truly ask, what good would tanking have done?

That is not to preclude the future prospects of tanking. Dragic's departure, letting Lee walk, packing Dalembert's bags for him, and saying your prayers at night that someone, anyone, might be interested in Scola or Martin would land the Rockets deeply in the lottery. But would that sacrifice provide sweet lottery salvation? The Rockets' fans only ask for a chance (a better one at that) to taste the top of the draft board; but I ask, what really are the chances as long as Geoff Petrie, Billy King, Ernie Grunfeld, and their like-minded cohorts have a desk to call their own? Earning that shot at the top may (most likely) take multiple trips to tank town. How many? How many consecutive losing seasons are you willing to endure for a franchise altering player? How many losing seasons before there is not much of a franchise left to alter, and we begin to hope for that franchise SAVING player? There hasn't been a Top 5 selection who can lead his team to a championship in four years. If the Rockets' losing coincided with a similar drought, how many more years must the fans suffer through?

All of that is to say that tanking is a process. A process that takes time. The franchise building technique that "You must be bad to be good" should really read, "You must be bad for a while to be good for a while".

Standing firmly against a commitment to losing, the Rockets' current trajectory shows no such inclination. Whether guided by Alexander or Morey, the Rockets seem deadset on spitting in the face of the league's former and future losers. But are they just spitting into the wind? Entering into the offseason with more middling first round picks has left our fanbase glum (to say the least) in more than the typical sports fan cycle of end of year sadness slowly building to the next year's beginning of season hope. This will be year three of the post-Yao, post-franchise player era, and Rockets' fans everywhere truly question if there will ever be a light at the end of the tunnel of mediocrity. The Rockets' chosen path to relevance has alienated the vast majority of their fans. Where is the hope?

Herein lies both the problem and the solution to the Rockets' woes. Hope. Hope is why we love sports. Hope, potential, wanting greatness to emerge from the unknown, however you wish to describe it, is the motivation for the entire sports empire. A franchise with hope breeds loyal fans, motivates players, interests free agents, and forces the league as a whole to take note. There is a reason that diehard fans of the "Lovable Losers", the Cubs, who haven't won since 1908, rehearse the mantra "There's always next year".

The misconception is that this unifying motivation must be centered around the hopes of winning a championship. That idea is blatantly false. The hope isn't to contend; the hope is to improve. Improvement is the inherent fuel for next year's hope. To improve is to continue a never-ending cycle of hope. This is why we hate fair-weather fans, bandwagon jumpers, and frontrunners. This is why we feel a sense of pride when remembering our teams 'comin from nuthin' to contend for the playoffs, for the championship. We remember the development, the improvement. Nothing is more gratifying than going into an offseason knowing your team was better than last year, and with the hope that there is still more improvement to come.

This is why, "The hardest thing to do in sports is repeat". Where do you go from the top? How do you improve on number one? Players who can't hope for improvement lose motivation. Fans who can't hope for improvement suffer a malaise we can misclassify as entitlement (do you know any Lakers fans?) It may seem counter-intuitive to think that we wouldn't be content consistently competing for, and winning, championships. But as a culture (applicable outside of sports), consistency bores us. It underwhelms us. It leaves us looking for the next best thing. As sports fans we aren't chasing championships, we are chasing that feeling of hope.

This is why the Rockets' fans (and sports fans in general) are so quick to call for a complete overhaul. Of the front office, of the roster, it does not matter. The natural instinct of the sports' fan is to think the grass IS always greener. Because as soon as you reach the other side, as soon as something has changed there is the hope. Something new, something different brings about possibility, the possibility of improvement.

And so we as Rockets' fans continuously chase these possibilities. We cry for the Rockets' to tank because that is an alternate direction, but I warn you, it's easy to enter a tunnel when you can see the other side. If you hate the consistent mediocrity of the Morey-era , how will you feel about the consistent losing of whomever would decide to take the Rockets' down that road?

I implore you to use that same macro vision that allows you to see the end results of tanking, to see the end results of Morey's plan. It is no coincidence that the best GMs are the longest tenured; however, you can also say that is no coincidence that the longest tenured GMs are the best. It is illogical to give a man a job and not have the patience to give him enough time to do it. If the Rockets' were to commit to tanking this offseason, how many years would it take to return to >.500 season?

If you tell me that given enough chances in the lottery the Rockets will eventually land a star player, why can I not tell you that given enough chances in free agency and trades the Rockets will eventually land a star player? Yes, historically, most teams draft their own stars. But we are in an unprecedented era of the league; one where star movement is at an all time high. I don't know if history provides any context for the current state of the league. It has been 26 years under the lottery (21 with the current system) and the league has had three wildly different CBAs in that time. I hate to be the one to shout it, but whatever historical data you may have will be fairly insignificant.

And so I offer this solution. Morey's vision is logical: Maintain assets, maintain roster and salary flexibility, and maintain competitiveness. It's logical because it is but one swift, star-acquiring move away from Rockets' relevance. However, Morey's plan does not account for the fan's and city's distaste for the stagnancy created by missed opportunities at free agents and trades. The lottery offers a fairly deep stream of (often false) hope. How can Morey's plan offer the same?

We needn't look farther than the GARM for the answer. Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic, Chandler Parsons, Patrick Patterson... even if the team as a whole may not improve, the fans cling to individual improvement (or lack thereof). We love watching, following, and debating these players improvements. We love the thought of their continued improvement.

So until the point at which a singular roster move to acquire star talent, I promote these guidelines (within reason):

1. Do not acquire players who are not currently improving and/or cannot improve .

2. Once the front office evaluates that a current Rockets' player has, or will never, reach their potential, trade him. Scola and Martin have proven that it is far better to trade non superstar type players too soon than too late. Even if you are not getting 110% value (I think that's how Morey values his assets), as long the Rockets' front office abides by rule one there will be no fan mutiny.

3. Do not sacrifice these rules for marginal wins. No veteran band-aids. In this league, it is better to have losses than wins.

4. Keep age to a minimum. Fans can't avoid the allure of youth. See Williams, Terrence.

 

I didn't know it was offensive to call people pro-tankers? I said that I myself entered this season with a "tankers" mentality.

I didn't feel my piece was argumentative at all so I don't understand why I sense contrarianism in your post.

I wrote that to explain why so many are so upset about the Rockets current outlook, and how at the moment it feels like (to me at least) we need to change so much of how the front office operates. Take a look at the anger stemming from Morey's comments today. However, if we were to really examine things a few simple tweaks could bring some hope back into the Rockets' system without the need to major upheaval.

 

Everybody's hopping on the Blazers bandwagon?

Their nucleus:

Roy- 6th pick
Aldridge- 2nd pick
Oden - 1st pick

How do you propose the Rockets go about acquiring a top 5 pick in the draft? Did you read what I said about the dearth of substantial talent in the draft over the past 4 years? Griffin, Wall, and Irving are the players with star potential, and they were all #1 picks.

Portland has also never made it out of the 1st round. They are about to commence a second round of rebuilding which means 3+ more years of development. Yet everyone seems to think that Portland's situation is far superior?

I think that would be a prime example of exactly what I stated in my post. You aren't in love with Portland because their in position to be a better team than the Rockets any time in the near future, you like them because you are conditioned to fall in love with the immediacy of their potential.

In a sense, people are in love with the macro-vision of Portland's plan but judge and dispel the Rockets on a micro level.

 

I gave it some thought and I apologize for my hasty, poorly grammaticized post.

Since some of you are too lazy to read it, and others seem to be misreading or misconstruing what I wrote, I am going to reiterate my thoughts in a much simpler fashion.

I, like the majority of Rockets' fans, am not happy with the way our team is currently being operated.

We would all agree that from the owner's perspective, his job is to generate as much fan interest/passion as possible. More fans = more money.

Les Alexander believes that winning = fan interest. The more the Rockets win, the more fan interest. Conversely, he believes fewer wins = less fan interest. His ultimate goal is a championship. Championship = most fan interest possible.

Les Alexander has hired Daryl Morey to reach his ultimate goal. Daryl Morey's job is to win a championship while winning as much as possible, fulfilling Alexander's desires.

In the end, I cannot say that what Morey is attempting to do is impossible or will take longer than "rebuilding" (losing now to win later). Analytics support that it is easier to rebuild through draft, but I do not know how significant those finding are given the Rockets' specific, and the League's current, situation.

What I can say is that Leslie Alexander's fundamental goal of winning championships is flawed. Championships ≠ Fan interest. Hope (as a byproduct of improvement) = fan interest.

The Rockets' current system has disregarded how to garner hope. Daryl Morey tries to sell the hope of acquiring a superstar player. While I believe it may be equally realistic to acquire a superstar through free agency/trade as it is to acquiring a superstar through the draft, that is not the issue. The results evidence that the free agency/trading method is nowhere near as effective at generating fan interest as drafting.

You can offer your solution as to how to reinstill hope in the Rockets' fan base.

Mine was as follows:

I feel it's a bad idea to change management. New management often requires a muddled transition which will prolong the despair. I believe that Morey can continue his system while regenerating hope by focusing on individual development in lieu of team development. Hopefully (pun intended), this would fill the stagnant void of waiting to acquire a superstar.