Official: Rockets have given Derek Fisher a buyout

Good move. No one wanted him on the team even though he could help especially with his leadership. But it was still a great move

 

So, we could move up to 6. The only way you move up 2 spots is if the team drafting at that spot doesn't really like the next guy on the board that much or they have more than 1 guy rated the same on their board. The chances are not good that we could get who we want at 6 instead of 8. That's just the facts.

 

Ahhh, but therein lies the rub. The new CBA limits teams to spending only $3 million in cash IN THE AGGREGATE in all trades during a given year.

By taking on additional salary (then buying out the player), the Rockets have circumvented this limitation and are still free to spend the full $3 million in cash if they want to either (a) buy more draft picks on draft night or (b) throw it into any major trades made on draft night.

I could totally see the Rockets trying to package that DAL pick with the NYK pick to move up a few spots in the draft, THEN buy an early second rounder later on.

The cap hit aspect does sting a little (still waiting to see the final numbers), but as one poster (CH?) mentioned in another thread, the Rockets' cap situation will not be too greatly affected by it. They'll have more than enough money to sign a max free agent (Deron Williams) if he wants to sign here but never had enough to sign two max guys. Absent that, the extra $2-3M in cap room wasn't going to be extraordinarily useful. Again, if Fisher got over on his buyout negotiations, then I might change my tune here a bit.

Excellent analysis, OMR! I think you might be very close on the numbers and would be surprised if they were significantly different than the ones you came up with.

As far as your question is concerned, I'm pretty sure the buyout HAS to be spread proportionately across the remaining years, so I think your $2M figure for next year's cap hit will be approximately correct. Of course, we didn't factor in "the time value of money", so perhaps the Rockets got even more of a "discount" by paying Fisher in one lump sum this week. Who knows?

Actually, I think Morey LIKES that it's top-20 protected. He even said as much on his radio interviews post-trade deadline.

The pick is top-20 protected through 2017 but then becomes UNPROTECTED in 2018. Yeah, I know that sounds like a million years from now, but a pick just like this (traded from New York to Phoenix in the Stephon Marbury trade in 2004 and then flipped to Utah a year or two later) ended up becoming the #9 pick of the 2010 NBA Draft (Gordon Hayward).

If Dallas fails to land a top-10 record this year, then starts dropping off key pieces (Terry, Kidd, etc.), there is at least a small chance that the Mavs never get back to top-10 record status. As Dirk ages, he may decline enough to only keep Dallas as a middle playoff seed year after year. This is possible even if they add Deron Williams, since they will have very little depth around those two guys.

I'm not saying it's likely, but that's another element of this pick that makes it interesting.

That said, I think it becomes a pick in the low 20s; and I think the Rockets look to package it with the Knicks' pick to move up a few spots in the draft.

 

Damn fine insight, Bima. Glad to have you around to note some of the finer details in the new CBA.

 

All we would've had to do to sign 2 max contracts is trade our Knicks pick, Lowry, and Patterson for a higher pick in the draft, release Dally, then amnesty Martin.

 

i really wished we could have sent him to the vipers and told gerson to bench him. then have someone elbow him hard on a screen in practice. then maybe sell him in mexico for some tequila.

 

Besides DWill there is no one worth a max contract this summer

 

That's true. But until Dwight opted in, that wasn't true.

Signing DWill this summer is still our #1 focus, until he signs somewhere else.

 

The Brandon Roy/Rudy Gay situation says hi. This is exactly what happened.

 

We couldn't get it done, Sammy.

And in hindsight, knowing now what happened to Roy and what happened to our team with Shane......we'd been better off to draft and keep Rudy. At least we coulda traded him for more value. And we would've been a worse team during the Yao/McGrady era, getting us better draft positioning going forward.

 

In fairness to sammy's point, the Rockets had that deal ALL lined up. The ONLY reason it didn't happen was that Portland somehow caught wind of the deal. They drafted Randy Foye at #7 (a guy they had zero interest in before they learned of the Rockets-Timberwolves trade) to nab Roy at #6. Had Portland simply been ignorant of the proposed trade, they likely would have selected someone else (Rudy Gay making the most sense), and the Rockets would have had Foye fall to them at #8 as originally planned.

jopatmc, I think you greatly underestimate just how close the Rockets came to moving up from #8 to #6 that year. It took an extraordinary circumstance to prevent that from happening.

 

It is both.

I still think the prohibition on receiving more than $3M cash all year in trades is a stupid rule. I know it's designed to keep financially-strapped teams from conducting fire sales for money; but I think its unintended consequences will outweigh its purpose.

 

Bima,

We need a salary cap update for 2012-2013, including Motie, Llull, and what you think we could re-sign Lee and Dragic for.

 

Was going to work on one this week, but I really want those figures on the Fisher buyout before publishing anything.

Also, for what it's worth, I'm pretty sure Sergio Llull won't be coming over until the 2013-14 season at the earliest.

 

Llull won't be coming. Motie, Lee and Dragic analysis already in the last update.

The only differences are extra costs incurred from (a) Fisher's buyout, and (b) the 1st round pick from Dallas (if we get it). So my guess is that the you basically take all of the projected payroll numbers and add $2.5-3.5 million to it (unless Fisher's buyout is really low).

Short summary of outcome:

(1) if the Rockets want to keep Dalembert, Lee and and Dragic and not amnesty either of their expensive payers (Martin, Luis Scola) or trade them for less salary, they won't have much cap room.

(2) however, they can create cap room for one max player (only candidate: Deron Williams) if need be by letting Lee, Dragic and Dalembert go and/or taking Martin or Scola off the books via trade or amnesty.

(3) they can probably get even more cap room than that, but there is likely little point in doing so (only max player on the market is Deron Williams).

Basically, the same options as before. The main difference, frankly, is that Dwight Howard is no longer a free agent.

 

Don't forget about that critical Greg Smith signing!

Seriously, I didn't even really want to do one except for the fact that people like to have all the most current cap info in one place. It will also give me a chance to discuss draft day trade strategy and use of cap space this summer.

 

(1) Doesn't Greg Smith basically cost the same as a roster hold for what would have been an empty spot in the last update? Maybe a couple more $100,000 more?

(2) I was thinking about making a "Where do we go from here" thread, mostly for the purpose of posting this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiiUWKkZDaA&feature=youtu.be#t=0m49s

The lyrics seem fitting.

 

The problem with this flexibility approach are those pesky cap holds and RFA rights.

Hey Dwill, wanna come to Houston? "Let me think about it"

Sammy, Lee, Dragic: "Hey are you gonna offer us money?"....."working on something, let me get back to you"

Sammy, Lee, Dragic: ...........


Realistically, if you wrap up Lee, Dragic and Camby for the next 3 years at a combined 12-15 million per year, I call that a win.

Combined with picking up Sammy's option and the 4 new first rounders we could feasably have to sign, we are sitting right at the cap.

But if Dwill is interested, Dragic could walk, Lowry could be traded, Scola amnestied, Dally bought out. There is so many different ways we could go.

 

The good news there is that Deron Williams will have likely already committed to his new team (or the Nets) by the end of the July Moratorium. Every superstar free agent soaks in the Moratorium's week-long frenzy of teams longing to sign them; but they always arrive at a decision by the time the league officially opens for business on July 8 or so. Hell, even Lebron held his "The [Poorly Conceived and Ill-Thought-Out] Decision" right at the end of the July Moratorium. (Coincidentally, Dalembert's salary becomes fully guaranteed on the first day after the end of the July Moratorium, presumably giving the Rockets that full week or so to make an official decision on him.)

There will be plenty of time between July 1 and whenever Dragic gets a contract offer to work something out there. If Goran can't wait even a few days to let the Rockets work their stuff out, then odds are he wasn't likely to re-sign with Houston to begin with.

Courtney Lee will be sitting around for quite some time this summer before he gets an offer sheet he wants to sign. No rush there.