I used the statistical plus-minus model (described here and here) to calculate boxscore ratings for all NBA players. This is not meant to be a definitive list/ranking of the top players. It is an assessment of plus-minus impact based purely on boxscore indicators. Think of it as an alternative system to PER or NBA EFF or PTS+REB+AST. As with any such system, there are misses. You can see the links above for the details. As of 1/31, here are the top 50 that have played at least 500 minutes: Player Team PS GP mpg p40 tsa40 3a40 fta40 a40 or40 dr40 to40 st40 bk40 pf40 vi SPM james,lebron cle SF 48 38.6 31.2 25.8 5.3 10.6 8.5 1.0 6.7 3.9 1.6 1.1 1.9 12.7 13.6 wade,dwyane mia SG 47 36.4 30.5 27.6 3.9 10.4 7.0 1.5 3.8 3.6 1.9 1.3 2.5 10.4 9.7 paul,chris nor PG 38 38.8 21.3 17.7 3.1 5.0 11.6 0.5 4.3 2.6 2.4 0.2 2.7 10.6 9.2 duncan,tim san C 42 32.5 24.8 21.7 0.1 7.0 4.1 4.1 9.3 2.4 0.6 2.3 2.6 11.1 7.8 howard,dwight orl C 47 35.1 20.3 16.1 0.1 11.8 1.7 4.2 11.0 4.1 1.3 3.0 4.2 8.1 6.8 ginobili,manu san SG 40 26.7 19.6 18.0 6.4 6.0 6.9 1.5 3.8 2.8 2.1 0.6 2.9 9.0 6.7 bryant,kobe lal SG 47 38.4 29.0 26.5 4.2 7.5 4.9 1.2 4.4 3.0 1.8 0.3 2.6 9.2 6.7 smith,josh atl PF 46 33.7 18.1 16.7 0.1 6.5 4.6 3.1 7.1 2.6 1.8 2.7 3.5 9.5 6.5 durant,kevin okl SF 46 39.9 29.5 24.6 3.9 9.8 3.0 1.2 6.2 3.8 1.4 0.9 2.3 8.7 6.2 roy,brandon por SG 40 38.2 25.6 22.0 4.3 7.5 5.6 1.1 3.9 2.5 1.1 0.1 2.5 9.0 5.8 love,kevin min PF 28 30.2 19.1 17.2 1.8 6.7 3.2 5.8 9.4 2.1 1.1 0.5 3.0 9.8 5.6 billups,chauncey den PG 38 32.7 22.8 18.3 6.1 9.0 7.1 0.4 3.2 2.9 1.5 0.2 2.8 8.3 5.6 anthony,carmelo den SF 38 37.9 30.5 26.8 2.6 10.3 3.4 2.2 4.4 3.2 1.3 0.4 3.4 8.8 5.5 kidd,jason dal PG 46 36.1 10.1 8.9 5.3 0.9 10.3 0.6 5.3 2.6 1.9 0.6 2.0 8.5 5.5 camby,marcus lac C 45 31.1 10.3 10.1 0.2 2.5 3.9 4.1 11.4 1.7 1.7 2.6 2.6 8.5 5.5 gasol,marc mem C 46 35.6 16.9 13.2 0.0 6.3 2.6 3.3 7.5 2.3 1.2 1.8 4.0 7.8 5.2 wallace,gerald cha SF 45 42.1 18.7 15.8 1.9 7.8 1.9 2.0 8.7 2.4 1.6 1.2 2.7 7.2 5.0 oden,greg por C 21 23.9 19.7 15.2 0.0 5.4 1.6 5.4 9.6 3.3 0.7 4.1 7.1 7.8 4.8 gasol,pau lal PF 30 36.4 19.1 16.0 0.1 5.9 3.7 3.8 8.0 2.0 0.5 1.8 2.2 9.4 4.8 davis,baron lac PG 46 34.2 19.0 18.8 4.8 5.6 9.4 0.8 3.2 3.2 2.2 0.7 3.5 8.9 4.7 rondo,rajon bos PG 43 36.9 15.3 14.0 1.0 3.3 10.6 1.3 3.5 3.3 2.7 0.2 3.1 9.2 4.7 granger,danny ind SF 30 36.3 24.0 21.9 8.2 6.9 2.9 0.8 5.2 2.8 1.6 1.0 3.3 7.5 4.6 nowitzki,dirk dal PF 46 38.1 26.7 23.5 1.7 7.9 2.6 0.9 7.4 2.1 1.0 1.2 2.7 8.4 4.6 bosh,chris tor PF 47 35.9 26.6 22.4 0.4 9.8 2.3 3.4 9.2 2.6 0.7 1.1 2.6 9.2 4.6 hilario,nene den C 46 34.3 16.1 12.8 0.0 5.7 2.6 2.2 6.9 1.8 1.8 1.1 4.0 7.2 4.2 arenas,gilbert was PG 32 36.5 24.9 24.3 6.2 7.1 7.9 0.6 4.0 4.0 1.4 0.3 3.3 9.6 4.2 pierce,paul bos SF 39 36.0 21.6 17.1 4.5 7.1 4.0 0.5 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.5 2.9 7.7 4.0 wallace,ben det C 45 30.0 7.7 7.4 0.0 3.0 2.5 5.5 7.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 2.7 6.2 3.9 frye,channing pho C 48 29.8 15.6 13.0 7.0 2.0 1.9 1.2 6.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 4.3 6.0 3.7 williams,deron uta PG 41 37.1 20.5 17.4 3.5 5.8 10.3 0.8 3.4 3.5 1.2 0.2 3.0 9.6 3.7 wallace,rasheed bos C 41 24.0 17.5 17.1 8.3 2.6 1.6 1.2 6.3 1.4 2.1 1.4 4.9 6.0 3.6 murphy,troy ind PF 37 31.1 17.1 14.5 5.6 2.7 2.5 2.1 9.7 1.7 1.1 0.8 3.2 8.0 3.6 kirilenko,andrei uta SF 40 29.0 16.4 14.1 2.1 6.1 3.7 1.6 4.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.3 7.3 3.6 boozer,carlos uta PF 45 35.0 22.0 18.8 0.0 5.8 3.8 2.2 10.1 3.2 1.3 0.6 4.1 10.1 3.6 lowry,kyle hou PG 46 25.0 13.9 12.9 3.0 6.0 7.4 2.4 4.1 2.9 1.5 0.3 4.4 8.8 3.5 iguodala,andre phi SG 46 40.1 17.5 16.7 4.1 5.2 5.7 1.0 5.9 2.7 1.9 0.6 1.8 8.9 3.5 martin,kevin sac SG 14 36.2 23.6 21.4 6.3 8.0 3.1 1.0 3.8 2.2 1.4 0.2 2.2 7.0 3.4 odom,lamar lal PF 47 31.3 12.3 12.0 3.1 2.7 4.7 2.8 9.7 2.3 1.2 0.9 3.4 9.0 3.3 harden,james okl SG 46 22.9 17.5 16.4 5.6 5.4 3.8 1.2 4.4 2.3 1.8 0.3 4.4 7.2 3.3 noah,joakim chi C 44 32.9 13.8 12.5 0.0 4.4 2.6 4.7 10.1 2.5 0.8 2.2 4.0 8.2 3.0 anderson,ryan orl PF 39 16.3 21.8 18.9 9.8 4.0 1.6 2.8 5.9 2.3 1.3 0.4 3.0 6.7 2.8 fernandez,rudy por SG 30 22.9 16.5 14.6 7.6 3.8 3.6 1.1 4.1 3.0 2.3 0.2 2.8 6.8 2.7
It takes the following inputs (which are not mutually exclusive), all per 40 pace adjusted minutes excepting mpg: mpg: minutes per game p40: points scored tsa40: true shots attempts 3a40: 3-point attempts fta40: free throw attempts a40: assists or40: offensive rebounds dr40: defensive rebounds to40: turnovers s40: steals bk40: blocks pf40: personal fouls vi: versatility index (cube root of p40*a40*(or40+dr40))
a handful of names stuck out to me at first (ben wallace, rudy fernandez, ryan anderson, kyle lowry, channing frye) I think their impact is enhanced. I'm not sure these players could keep pace with the others if their minutes were signficantly increase (save for mabye rudy and kyle) although, i will say at looking back at the list, it's overall a good overview of some of the impact players in the league.
One player conspicuously missing from the top 50 list is Steve Nash. Nash is routinely amongst the leaders in APM, so I think he is a player that this model underrates. The reason is he does not get a lot of offensive rebounds, steals, or blocks. His turnovers are fairly high, and a relatively large percentage of his "true" shot are 2-point attempts rather than 3-pointers/free throws. But Nash is somewhat unique because he is so incredibly efficient even on the 2-point attempts, and his teammates depend so much on his playmaking for getting good shots.
Possibly. But think of it as an estimate of how much the player is helping his team while he is on the floor. If his floor time changes, so could the rest of his per-minute numbers and, consequentially, the statistical plus-minus.
I would say this model also underrates players like Landry who come off the bench and may not have the supporting cast of the starters, thus getting a worse +/- although practical impact may be greater
The model does not factor in +/- at all. Like I said, it is based only on the numbers next to his name in the standard boxscore (min, pts, ast, oreb, dreb, stl, blk, tov, pf, fga, fta, 3pa). It is trying to estimate +/- from that information. There are some surprising results for the Rockets players. Lowry leads the team by far. Battier comes in second, strangely enough. The two rookies (Budinger, Andersen) are at the bottom, which isn't a surprise. Everyone else is between -1 and 1. The makeup of the Rockets roster is atypical, because they don't have any real "stars". That could possibly distort their ratings (high usage players should perhaps have more value for the Rockets than the statistical plus-minus model gives them).
I calculated another metric based on SPM: Plus-minus above Replacement Player per Game (PARP/g). SPM estimates points a player contributes to his team's point differential is for every 100 possessions played. PARP/g considers points above "replacement level" player (set at -5 SPM) provided per game. This will give proportionately more credit to players who play longer minutes as long as they play with an effectiveness above -5. Player Team PS GP mpg spm PARP/g james,lebron cle SF 48 38.6 13.6 13.5 paul,chris nor PG 38 38.8 9.2 10.5 wade,dwyane mia SG 47 36.4 9.7 10.0 bryant,kobe lal SG 47 38.4 6.7 8.7 durant,kevin okl SF 46 39.9 6.2 8.6 howard,dwight orl C 47 35.1 6.8 8.0 anthony,carmelo den SF 38 37.9 5.5 7.9 wallace,gerald cha SF 45 42.1 5.0 7.9 duncan,tim san C 42 32.5 7.8 7.9 roy,brandon por SG 40 38.2 5.8 7.5 smith,josh atl PF 46 33.7 6.5 7.3 kidd,jason dal PG 46 36.1 5.5 7.2 granger,danny ind SF 30 36.3 4.6 7.0 gasol,marc mem C 46 35.6 5.2 7.0 gasol,pau lal PF 30 36.4 4.8 6.9 nowitzki,dirk dal PF 46 38.1 4.6 6.9 billups,chauncey den PG 38 32.7 5.6 6.8 rondo,rajon bos PG 43 36.9 4.7 6.8 bosh,chris tor PF 47 35.9 4.6 6.6 iguodala,andre phi SG 46 40.1 3.5 6.5 arenas,gilbert was PG 32 36.5 4.2 6.4 love,kevin min PF 28 30.2 5.6 6.4 davis,baron lac PG 46 34.2 4.7 6.3 hilario,nene den C 46 34.3 4.2 6.3 camby,marcus lac C 45 31.1 5.5 6.2 williams,deron uta PG 41 37.1 3.7 6.2 pierce,paul bos SF 39 36.0 4.0 6.2 martin,kevin sac SG 14 36.2 3.4 6.0 ginobili,manu san SG 40 26.7 6.7 5.9 boozer,carlos uta PF 45 35.0 3.6 5.8 murphy,troy ind PF 37 31.1 3.6 5.4 lee,david nyk C 46 36.9 2.5 5.4 johnson,joe atl SG 46 37.5 2.6 5.4 randolph,zach mem PF 46 37.5 2.3 5.3 jackson,stephen cha SF 46 39.0 2.1 5.2 jamison,antawn was PF 37 38.9 2.0 5.2 frye,channing pho C 48 29.8 3.7 5.2 noah,joakim chi C 44 32.9 3.0 5.1 odom,lamar lal PF 47 31.3 3.3 5.1 evans,tyreke sac PG 42 37.0 2.0 5.1 lopez,brook njn C 45 36.3 2.3 5.0 wallace,ben det C 45 30.0 3.9 4.9 kirilenko,andrei uta SF 40 29.0 3.6 4.8 bogut,andrew mil C 39 32.9 2.5 4.7 horford,al atl C 46 34.3 2.2 4.7 lewis,rashard orl PF 37 32.9 2.3 4.6 gay,rudy mem SF 44 39.3 1.0 4.6 williams,mo cle PG 43 35.7 1.8 4.6 maggette,corey gsw SF 44 30.7 2.1 4.5
durvasa, I'm one who likes to watch games and stick to the primary stats. But please do me a favor: Keep bringing the other stats. If someone doesn't like it, they should copy what I do to 99% of trade proposal threads: Avoid them.
