there was one play in the second half where Alston showed how to be a floor general. he was waving his arms everywhere, directing his teammates and putting the offense in place. the commentator mentioned this sequence as to how Rafer is crucial to the team. the haters make me laugh!
I think last night just flat out proved how essential Rafer is to this team...all those who say we should start Brooks or Jackson or Francis (on crutches) in front of him can't really say anything after last night...
tmac can have a big effect on the offense if he misses every single shot, same with Mutombo and Scola because their under the rim. If rafer and battier don't make their open shots the defenses just sag back and it destroys our offense.
Alston has always been the barometer for this team, more so than McGrady. McGrady can go only as far has his role players can take him - Alston more than anyone else. Alston needs to play well for McGrady to carry the team.
I'm sure there are as many blind Rafer lovers as blind Rafer haters. I think most of us who try to be analytical believe that Rafer is definitely the best point guard on the team. He makes the best passes and sets up the offense the best. He also plays the best team defense, generally knowing where to shade his man. His man D is underrated...I'm not saying he's good at it (because he isn't), but it's adequate. That said, it is silly to dismiss the notion that Rafer's shooting is critical to the team's success. Aside from the statistical warrant, the Rafer's ability to hit the 3 ball well is a prerequisite to other aspects of the Rockets offense. The more a defender has to honor him, the more space it opens for cutters. The Rockets offense has primary, secondary, and tertiary options, and works like a ladder. If any step is missing, it just becomes harder and harder to climb that ladder to score. This isn't a team with multiple shot creators and awesome post scorers (especially without Yao). This team needs offense phase 1 to work, which makes offense phase 2 easier, which opens up offense phase 3. That is why the Rockets offense can look so great one day and terrible the next. Rafer is the best PG on the team, but his shooting is just as critical to the team success as T-Mac's ability to hit the pull up jumper coming off the screen. They aren't absolutely needed to win, but without either then it just becomes so much more difficult for the offense to score not only there, but in other aspects too.
Stats in a vaccuum are a scary thing. You mention how we do when Rafer shoots 2% over his season average. Well how do we do when the team as a whole shoot 2% over their average? What about dependent and independent variables? Is it possible Rafer and others shoot better against weaker defenses? Moreover, my argument is Rafer's contribution is much more than his shooting, which is of lesser importance. For instance, historically, how have we performed when Rafer is unavailable to play at all? If we drop in a better shooting sub for Rafer, what happens to our team? We look flat as hell. Tell me how to incorporate that into your shooting percentage stat. So which would be more important, Rafer running the team or his shooting percentage?
It, was wasn't it. Else you would have anyone to try to pound on today, which is clearly a need for you. I showed in 1/4th of our streak wins his shooting sucked. But if Rafer wasn't playing in those games, even the one where his shooting sucked, we would have been at risk of losing a game. I see you like simple stats. I know that durvasa is capable of much more, but there are still many questions left unanswered by those numbers and it still does not address at all whether his shooting percentage is the most critical contribution for him to the team. E.g., say we lose 50% when he doesn't shoot 42%, but we lose 75% when he doesn't play and his sub shoots 45%, what can we hypothesize?
That's not true. T-Mac is the leader, but he can't do it on his own. Rafer fills his role well, and gets pressure off t-mac.
I said it before the game yesterday, watch Rafer go all And1 Battle Mixtape on Derons ass, SKIP TO MY LOU BABY! Streetballerz > Fundamental Ballerz
... says the guy who came to pound because his work schedule conveniently opened wide the day after a great Rafer performance (and remember, it's not personal for you!) And yet, the Rockets were 4-1 in the regular season with Rafer out after the Bobby Jackson trade, primarily because Bobby (38.7% from the field and 39.3% from three, 4.6 assists in 28 minutes) mimicked Rafer's stats and Aaron Brooks shot 52%/43% from the field/three off the bench. And then the other games -- the Rockets were 0-3 before that trade when Rafer was out when Mike James shot 28% and Steve Francis 20% in his place. Games 1 and 2 of the playoffs had Bobby shooting 31% from the field and 23% from three -- it's not a huge shocker that the Rockets lost. I would say if Rafer shot those same percentages with Brooks as his backup, we would have also lost. I see you don't. The stat is very simple, very effective and very damaging to your argument. The same applied to 06-07, when the Rockets were 18-4 when Rafer was 42% or better and 37-30 when he was under 42%. Here you are pointing out that Rafer embarrassed his critics last night and at the same time claiming Rafer's shooting isn't critical. Yet you're doing it after a game where Rafer shot 8-14 and 4-8 from long range and the Rockets won by 2 in the final seconds. If Rafer hits a good percentage, he works. If the system is devised so Rafer is more of a 4th/5th option rather than 2nd/3rd, he may work. If Rafer plays less time, he may work. Big minute Rafer at his current attempts and percentages? If the goal is still to win a championship, I don't believe that is going to work. Of course. Given a decent enough sample size where another point guard shoots 45% in his place on a similar quantity of shots, you could certainly say his intangibles were more valuable. Let's see the numbers where this is the case.
I would probably agree with that -- Rafer, in my opinion, deserves the credit for turning the offense around and more in line with what Adelman wanted (though I felt it slipped away in the last quarter of the year and became more T-Mac's show). This started when T-Mac was out. However, I would also say Juwan Howard was this team's leader last year.
Just to add to those numbers -- 2 of those losses were with T-Mac out. The Rockets are 25-1 when Rafer does that and Tracy McGrady is also in the game. 16 of those wins came during the streak. This is the lone loss... a 100-94 home loss to Dallas. http://www.clutchfans.net/game_boxscore.cfm?GameID=2951
It should be noted that the one loss came against the Utah Jazz...and the four wins came against the Supersonics, Clippers (twice)...the only semi-impressive win of the lot was against Portland...so I do think this doesn't represent enough evidence to say that Bobby can replace Rafer, if they average around the same FG% against playoff teams like Utah.
AGREE. Like I said in the other thread. That kiss on Landry's forehead after the game is a natural sign of a good and true leader. There was one time also when he was lecturing Tmac.... then tap tmac's back.... that's a mark of a true leader.
I know you guys are having a heated discussion but wouldn't those stats be similar for anyone who takes a significant amount of shots on the rockets. Our team doesn't shoot the ball well so when we do we have a chance to win. It helps to have another option that can possibly shoot well, doesn't it?
Rafer's value is that he knows how to position everyone on offense. Our spacing was vastly better last night, and TMac was able to get the ball in positions other than the high screen where he is doubled as soon as he turns the corner. Bobby Jackson is a better shooter, but is not nearly as proficient getting TMac 1v1 looks or dishing the ball to a cutter. Rafer is something of a poor man's Jason Kidd, though Paul has made Kidd look like a poor man's Rafer .
I don't think theres any blind rafer lovers here, just fans who know hes the best PG in terms of running the team we have. One of the most underrated and important aspects of being a PG is setting up the team and controlling the tempo. Its an important aspect of being a PG thats overlooked because you can't see it in the box score and it doesn't stand out like being able to make shots consistently. I think everyone agrees that the PG position could use an definite upgrade, but rafer isn't as bad as hes made out to be.
as impressive as his shooting last night was the fact that he ran a pick and roll with scola and made a pass to the rolling scola for a layup. i think that was 1 of maybe 5 times he's made the pass off of the pick and roll all year(yes that is a made up statistic but it illustrates a point).
