The Presidency and the new Paradigm

I would caution against playing up what the politicians can do.

The world has limited resource but now a big chunk of human population is booming for the first time ever in the modern age. I there are no technological advances to solve this problem, conflicts are inevitable.

I think the people who will save us are the scientists and engineers who might come up with better way of using resources.

 

Cohen, I've read an amazing amount of speculative fiction about the future, some of the most interesting with a basis in hard science. Not all of it ends well. I agree with you that we are reaching, over the next few decades, if not sooner, a crisis with "our planet, food, fresh water, energy, illness, etc." Anyone who denies it has their head in the sand, IMO. Heck, anyone familiar with the 1950's, '60's, and early '70's, pre-1973 Arab-Israeli War and the OPEC embargo, would say the environment is far different today... and in too many ways, worse.

Who's the best leader of the 3 remaining candidates? A Democrat!

I voted for Barack in the primary because I think he has the best chance of winning in November. I still think he has the best chance, but I'm not as opposed to Hillary Clinton as you and others here are. I just think he's the best choice in the here and now, when matched up against the other 2 alternatives. McCain is a continuation of George W. Bush's policies and the GOP shouldn't be rewarded for a disastrous 8 years in power by giving them the White House yet again. So my answer is Barack Obama. I just believe that whoever is elected has been given a near impossible task simply repairing the damage Bush and the GOP Congress has done to the nation. Obama, Clinton, McCain... they are all three up against it if elected. We are in unsettled times and it will get worse. My kids will envy us our lives, unless they live in a virtual world, which isn't impossible, just not productive.




Impeach Bush. Make Him Clean Up After Himself.

 

Of course, the Democrats currently enjoy a majority in both the House Senate.

 

Refman, we've "enjoyed" our few months in the majority. Give us years, a bigger majority, and a Democratic President, then come back and talk about it.



Impeach Bush. Make Him Clean Up After Himself.

 

The human race on Earth is doomed, it's just a matter of how long we can hold on. 100 years if there is a nuclear or biologic event, 1000 years if there is a rapid climate change, 10,000 or so and we will probably experience an ice age, in 200 million years the continents will have moved, in a few billion years the Sun will expand.

The reason it appears that we are approaching a crisis in most requirements for life is that we have been in a particularly benevolent period of climatology for the 10,000 years of the evolution of big human brains. It has allowed human life to explode on the planet, expanding exponentially, exploiting every niche until it can't anymore. All parasites flourish until they exhaust their host. Then they have to send out spores to locate a new hosts while the parents die off.

The answer is to centralize all information, automate the required labor and reduce the population down below the carrying capacity of the natural systems and keep it there; eugenics and robotics.

Vote for me!

 

The Democrats have had the majority in the House since 2006, not quite sure about the Senate.

Personally I do not want any one political party to have a bicamaral majority and the Presidency. When that happens, the checks and balance fail to check and balance.

 

Yet that happened for a good chunk of W's administration. How do we balance those excesses?

 

Not by swinging the pendulum too far the other way. We need to restore the balance, not throw things out of whack the other way.

You don't fix a broken machine by breaking another part of it.

 

How do you restore the balance if you have the party that pushed the envelope in a position to block the balancers?

 

RRRRGGGHHH!!!

Too many metaphors!

 

I just turned 26, and quite frankly, there's a lot of going on in this world that just freaks the hell outta me. I went through college with a science background. I read feeds on the wondrous potentials of science (materials science, nanotech, astrophysics, IT convergence), but I feel the reality around me being darkened by the edges.

I just don't see easy recoveries that occurred after the sleep walking of the 70s and 80s. The boomers are retiring. They want to be taken care of, and the entitlements anticipated for that goal will crush us if we don't change course. The environment is facing it's third stressful impact in China/Asia while the fourth impact in S. America is shadowing right behind. I've read enough to know that even Superman can't surpass the political inertia behind these movements. Seniors will get their votes out, and money will trump future generations almost every time at the bat.

These are issues that even a united world would have great difficulties in resolving, but the next President will inherit a country where it's diplomatic primacy is not as dominant as it was 8 years ago. It will face an ever evolving and complex world where motivations bleed beyond grey into green and red. It's long vaunted war machine relies upon blood and grease that will not come as easily as yesteryears. But it is the only nation that can inspire hope and willing cooperation among a community that individually conspires for personal glories above their stated and well represented ideals. Is it a paradigm shift that is to come, or is our hopes and prayers confined to a hail mary from an undefined paradigm shift?

These are not sink or swim issues. We've been wading in the kiddy pool among these well known crises for over 30 years: the resource crunch, deficit spending, decay in American manufacturing, environmental and climate change, unstable world politics, fear in unchecked authoritarian nations, etc. We are frogs being slowly boiled. I just don't see in a time of desperate need where we would pause with our own suffering to look up and assist other people in relieving their miseries. If there are major examples in history, I'd gladly read it.

I guess it's my gloomy disposition that I would look at what is so cynical in front of me with historical context than to willingly believe that science's promise of a new epoch in humanity plus the 19th century idealism that brought us Liberalism will free us from the 20th century battleground of practiced and experimented philosophies.

It's something that paralyzes me to the core, and it's probably not what other generations want to hear. We millennials are supposedly optimistic and great collaborators for a common cause. Obama embodies that. But we are also highly perceptive and cynical of the reality lurking behind. Most stay home after college and live it up before putting on the toil and shackles they've witnessed from their parents' career. The same career structure that abandoned them with a veneer of personal freedom that cloaks longer hours with stagnant real wages, and a lack in medical, economic, and career security. It's somewhat ironic I mention this when my father was an entrepreneur and I have the temperament to follow his steps.

What is it that will tip us into fighting for a new belief that will be far more rewarding than any Xbox game or simulation of reality? That is the missing piece that I suppose I should know in my heart or mind. I wouldn't mind a little help.

 

Yea... that was a little much. Sorry.

 

I've got two decades on you and I feel the same way, particularly when I think about the world my kids may end up with. Still, you can't be paralyzed by such thoughts. Nothing about the human future is inevitable. People can change things. As to how I deal with it...

I'm lucky in that I fell into a job that deals with the environment and helps people in real ways. On top of that, I try to do something worthwhile everyday and teach my kids to do the same. I'll never be someone that influences a country, much less the world. I'll never be a genius that will think up a new paradigm. I'm just a regular guy who can help some people, who can support the leaders who stand a chance of making a difference, who can fight ignorance (both real and intentional), who can raise good kids, and who can try to make the world a little bit better.

 

THat's because you're 26.

There are some incredible challenges out there -- but really -- I don't see how it can be considered worse then it was in the 70's or 80's.

Sure we had disco, and hair bands -- but whole cold war wasn't much fun. The US and USSR stockpiling nuclear weapons -- and having proxy wars around the globe. OPEC? A US president resigning. (after one had been assassinated). Race riots. The israel - arab conflicts were much worse (and Arafat was still a terrorist). Plane hijackings. US hostages on the news. American flags being burned This stuff ain't new.

We weren't b****ing about the price of gas so much as its availability. Line ups around the block -- even/odd days. The 55 mph limit was much more then a Sammy Hagar tune.

We had holes in the ozone layer, and acid rain. Whole lakes and eco systems were dead. (there's been incredible progress on rehabbing this stuff). THis isn't to say much more absolutely needs to be done.

It wasn't just manufacturing jobs then -- it was the whole economy. 10%+ unemployment. Significantly higher for new college grads. Japanese management was the buzz then -- they were going to take all our jobs. Associate lawyers weren't getting seduced by 6 figure salaries -- they were lucky to be kept on after passing the bar. In my last year of university, mortgage rates peaked at 21%. The stock market was pretty much stagnant from 1970 to the mid eighties. The problem then wasn't boomers retiring. It was them NOT retiring and there being no room for the new guys!

There's a saying we use when bike touring. The hardest hill is always the one you're on.

And I don't mean to downplay the challenges facing us. And many of the issues above continue on. And some of the new ones are downright frightening.

But don't let your frustrations with the present lunatics in government cloud your judgement. Or succumb to the hype of the 24 news networks and point/counterpoint team politics. The game sure seems to have become a lot dirtier. (though I guess no ones been caught lately bugging their opponents hotel rooms, so perhaps it just the trash talk that's louder and more offensive). But economic, environmental and political issues have always been there. Some of them incredibly daunting. And in time...they fade...and we work on the next hill.

And of the three candidates.

I honestly think ANY of them would do a decent job. Seriously. The news shows will continue to paint good and evil. But any of the three has the potential to do an excellent job. I much prefer the two donkeys then that grey old elephant. But I don't see any impending doom no matter how it turns out. Just harder hills to climb.

 

You can whistle in the dark or you can never leave your room or something in between. You can sedate yourself with drugs, you can have a lot of children, you can move to a cabin in the mountains, you can run for office. You can become a pacifist or you kill for point of view. All are defendable responses to the human condition, you just need to chose the path that gives you the most peace of mind. As an atheist, my version of hell is living with a guilty conscience. ( I personally manage to exist in about purgatory)

There is nothing steady or predictable about evolution. It comes in fits and starts. Conditions change and species adapt or die. The more radical the change the difficult the adaptation. Frankly, human politics has not evolved much in 2000 years. The Greeks invented the democratic republic, so self evident in it's correctness for the general welfare but it is still not the dominant government for much of the planet because it runs counter to the evolutionary imperative of self interested power.

Monarchy, theocracy, autocracy and corrupt regimes are more consistent with nature, where the more powerful exploit the less powerful in an attempt to ensure their progeny. (it's a little abstract to see, but all sex, money, power, and politics are really efforts to reproduce one's gene pool) Look at our Chinese posters. They are so afraid of their own condition that they are willing to submit to autocracy because they see it as their best chance for their children's survival.

The saying goes "all politics are local"; I'd say all politics are personal. If you want to get elected you have to convince a majority of the people that their lives and the lives of their progeny will be better under your regime than the other guys. In this election, I believe I will be voting for Mr. Obama. I love his persona, charisma and the radical shift in perception of the rich white good ol' boys government he offers. His campaign message is properly aimed and purposely ambiguous. But I harbor no illusions that his election will radically alter the human condition in this or any other country. The machine is too big, it runs very slowly, it takes a huge amount of energy to over come the inertia of the status quo. And, every action taken has unintended consequences (says a person who thought overthrowing a murderous tyrant would yield good things).

So let's get down to brass tacks.....what can a centrist/populist president actually do to influence change? Will ending the US's involvment in Iraq mean more or less peace in the world, more or less security for the United States? How exactly can a president influence the degredation of the standard of living for US citizens down to to what is more like the average of the rest of the planet? How can a government change it's commitment to entitlements, just throw out it's promises to old people?

Bill Clinton looked like he had the answers, but I think Bill Clinton just had the good fortune to be President during the years when a new disruptive technology created huge wealth. Wealth that floated all boats, maybe only equaled by Post-war industrialization, the Industrial Revolution or the exploitation of the New World. It doesn't happen that often.

In my new role as Aurthur C. Clarke's replacement, I will predict that the next great disruptive technology will be...fusion energy; in maybe 50 years.

 

Any preceived problems were not created in a day. They will not be solved in a day either. It will take some time of balanced government to fix things in any meaningful way.

When things were so F'ed up when Carter was leaving office, did you think the solution was for the Republicans to take control of both houses of Congress and the White House?

 

I should apologize beforehand for the coming soapbox rant.

As someone who has gone to Chinese Buddhist school, I do view eternal suffering to be a personal hell. But a requirement of that is to have soul/conscience with which to suffer or enjoy. I can't stand watching MTV or its kind. It's my belief that similar programming is packaged to condition people into an infantile and subjective state, bread and circuses and all that.

And I too find it rich that our advanced and cultured era hails from the thoughts and minds of thousands of years old dead robed dudes. Dig up their bones and there's no physical difference between theirs and ours. Is any form of government scalable to the demands of population and the concentrated power it brings? I disagree that self interested power is an evolutionary imperative, but there is a strong lure in those who lead to stray beyond their instinctual path. To have so much influence upon several independent worldminds is to experience a feeling beyond what anyone felt at a time when humanity lived in an environment before society. Maybe that rush is similar to an opiate, which is why people of different temperaments end up battered, defeated, corrupted, or eerily similar after several terms in power.

Finally, while I see some of the Wave among a number of Chinese posters, it's too simplistic to think the nationalistic effect is driven by fear. Their generation of my age is also coming at a time of great change and optimism that's being tempered by current events. Their parents' generation remembers food shortages, rationing, and political transformations that rocked local communities. They largely sacrificed their personal ambition in order for their children to see something better. The current faith in the CPP is driven by that success and order. While it's a promise that can be easily broken, they also have reference the USSR's collapse, a perception in the lack of genuine assistance by mature democracies in its aftermath, and the pathetic rise of Russian oligarchs. The thousands of years in recorded history gives Chinese people some perspective. 50-100 years of dominance might not be long enough. I do wonder how the deliberate destruction of some aspects of its culture and a growing disparity of women in a generation full of only-childs who are male will affect China's new face in the coming years. Fearful isn't the condition I'm thinking of. They will be the spoken voice behind the shared destiny of their forefathers. It might not matter if there's a complete understanding between generations.

When it comes to the environment and our federal debt, it feels like America has tackled these problems with the resolve of a rubber band. I've never seen a bubbling and toxic river, but there's urges for people to one-up that and then feign the vacant look of cluelessness at the government when it's time for someone else to clean it up. The credit financial crisis, a threat level unseen since the Great Depression, exasperates me on how powerless the American people are to its consequences. What we have are players who have found a way to print money yet aren't affiliated to any central bank. They have mushroomed orders and counter-orders into hundreds of trillions in paper monopoly money.

Now I suppose worry is the mother of necessity. Mutually Assured Destruction was based upon the worry that we all lose. With so many people and things coming along for the ride, it will be one helluva hill to climb.

As it has been, my generation's success will likely be based upon the degree the next generations' notions of the burden we passed onto them. In the early 90s, some prominent thinkers proclaimed an End to History. Two great things happened in that span. The tangible collapse of the Soviet Union, and the disruptive technologies Dubious mentioned. However, the current political instability around the world is largely based upon those two things. Instant information liberated people from their communities and local media. Plus, it has made ideas into borders far more tangible than geography.

As it has been, behind the enthusiasm for human progress is the eagerness from which we jump into new innovations in order to solve millennia old character issues. We have so many crowning achievements, but not everyone is present to share it.

Things that stick with me while reading historical accounts is how individuals come up with seemingly minor additions or ideas, and that allowed them to make great changes. The power of ideas is real.

I feel a little ridiculous writing all this while feeling paralyzed. Is it a personal difficulty of mine to need to be constantly reminded of this?



I want to thank everyone who's replied to my rant. Nothing America accomplished was easy. Cohen's OP sparked my fears that we've reached several points of no return. It could be just my perception and these events are challenges similar to what every generation faces. As the world shrinks by the year, subsequent challenges might all be points of no return.