Despite so many talented teams in the West, there is a huge drop-off after the top 8 teams. So it will take only 1 of the top 8 teams to fall apart and that can happen pretty easily. The Rockets have improved slowly in every game.
AirFrancis, I think you're dead on. I can see a team like Seattle, Sacramento, or Minnesota drop out, maybe after a key injury.
Sam I don't want to have to rely on an injury to get into the playoffs. I still say the Rockets are going to suprise some people by the end of the season. A couple of wins and watch the attitude change around this board.
As much as I would like to be in the lottery, I still think we will end up in the playoffs. SamCassell: But what is to say a key injury (God forbid) won't take the Rockets out of the running? All of these teams ahead of us have young cogs who can recover from injury quickly and not miss many games. Our two injury prone guys are closer to 40, than they are 30, and would take an eternity to heal up to 100%. That is why I am banking on Utah to fall out of the playoff standing. Hornacek, Stockton, and Malone are all 37-38 and the Jazz rely on those 3 for about 99% of their offense. If the Rockets had an injury to either of the Big 2, they would still have Francis, Anderson, and Mobley to pick up the slack.
Cab, I think we are in agreement. I also think the Rox will make the playoffs. But we won't win more than 45 or 46 games max. If the teams ahead of us keep pace, 45 wins would put us in the lotto. Ergo, I say that one of those teams falls off. I see Brandon as being injury-prone; Baker as being fat-prone; and you're right about the Jazz. They are ancient. I dunno about us holding our own, with Dream or Chuck hurt. I think that Francis, Mobles, and Anderson will be eventually capable of carrying the team, and I think Cato is going to eventually be a good center. But to expect that production this year might be too much to ask.
By the end of the season, this team will be a complete wreck. Barkley will have completely destroyed the team chemistry... And they will NOT be in the playoffs. Do you realize that to get to the playoffs, they will have to play OVER .500 ball for the rest of the season??? I don't think so. This is a team that 3-10 right now. Let's be realistic.
This is also a team that played well over .500 ball last season with about the same talent level and not nearly as much depth. Despite all of Barkley faults, I don't see that he will destroy the team chemistry. The comments Barkley made about players showing up late and having too many outside distractions were 100% right. These are young guys who are still learning the do's and don'ts of professional life. Barkley didn't single anyone out. He just put it out and said these things are not appreciated. Also, I expect he as much as anyone will play his ass off to make the playoffs especially since it is his last year. I doubt he will let the team get down. I think the 8th seed will be a .500 team. I think the Lakers are also very dependent on Shaq and he has had injury problems in the past.
Sam: But we won't win more than 45 or 46 games max. With that, I just don't see the point in fooling around and making the playoffs. I have always felt that if you don't have a shot at the title, or you are not building towards the title (like Minnesota and Milwaukee), then you have no place fooling around like the Rockets are right now. Go in one clear direction. They need to stop fooling around with this half-assed, "contend now while rebuilding" philosophy, because it ain't gonna work. Either go full force with the old guys (god forbid!) or suck hard and break in the young guys. That is why it is in our very best benefit to be in the lottery this season. What is the point of going into the playoffs, getting swept out of the first round by the Blazers, and then heading back home with nothing to show for this season?
I sure hope so because they won't even be able to use their first pick. They gave it up to Vancouver in the Francis trade.
DaneB: We have a 3 year option on which year we want to send the pick. I would guess we would keep it for the next 2 years, and give it up in the 3rd year with the thinking that Francis will be able to carry the team to a pretty high seeding by then.
Not a chance.....unles the rock's do some wheelin' and dealin. With the guys they've got there, they will be lottery fodder. As the long season grindes away on some of the older guys and injuries start to play a part they will struggle even more !!! As much as I hate to say it.... I will be watching from Sweden on Friday night/ Saturday morning rooting for them to upset the Blazers......but my mind says it won't happen !!! Go the rock's......
