Simple Game. I've posted the Fangraphs Depth Chart Projections for notable Astros. Which guys are going to go over the projections? Who are the goats that are going to go under their projections. Who's a push? Who don't you care about one way or another? Name ABs Average OBP Slugging wOBA WAR Alex Bregman 241 .289 .398 .549 .394 2.5 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Carlos Correa 223 .270 .356 .503 .358 1.8 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} George Springer 236 .272 .362 .506 .365 1.8 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Jose Altuve 238 .300 .363 .495 .360 1.6 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Yordan Alvarez 199 .284 .369 .561 .380 1.2 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Michael Brantley 218 .290 .349 .459 .341 0.9 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Kyle Tucker 166 .257 .323 .471 .332 0.7 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Yuli Gurriel 233 .284 .325 .472 .334 0.5 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Josh Reddick 168 .269 .324 .420 .315 0.4 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Aledmys Diaz 67 .259 .320 .434 .317 0.2 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Myles Straw 44 .259 .334 .327 .293 0.1 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Abraham Toro 23 .249 .323 .422 .317 0.1 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Name Innings ERA FIP WAR Zack Greinke 74.0 4.08 4.19 1.1 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Justin Verlander 68.0 3.34 3.45 1.7 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Lance McCullers Jr. 55.0 3.86 3.86 1.1 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} Joshua James 42.0 4.05 4.11 0.7 {Over, Under, Push, Meh} For purposes of this exercise, over will mean better even for ERA, FIP for consistency.
Brainless hate pieces on the "Astros Cheating Scandal" over/under: 200 Mediots calling Houston some sort of villain over/under: 50 Moronic spoonfed social media sheep posting 'cheater' on every Altuve/Springer/Correa highlight over/under: 1.5million Intelligent conversions about baseball: <10
Brainless hate pieces on the "Astros Cheating Scandal" over/under: 200 Over. As long as a lot of Astros fans are overly sensitive, they will get picked on. Mediots calling Houston some sort of villain over/under: 50 Over. Though, I think being the villain is fun and will in the long term help the Astros brand. Better to be hated than unknown. Moronic spoonfed social media sheep posting 'cheater' on every Altuve/Springer/Correa highlight over/under: 1.5million Over. As long as a lot of Astros fans are overly sensitive, they will get picked on. Intelligent conversions about baseball: <10 Over. We don't have t feed trolls.
Name ABs Average OBP Slugging wOBA WAR Alex Bregman 241 .289 .398 .549 .394 2.5 Over Carlos Correa 223 .270 .356 .503 .358 1.8 Over George Springer 236 .272 .362 .506 .365 1.8 Under Jose Altuve 238 .300 .363 .495 .360 1.6 Over Yordan Alvarez 199 .284 .369 .561 .380 1.2 Under Michael Brantley 218 .290 .349 .459 .341 0.9 Push Kyle Tucker 166 .257 .323 .471 .332 0.7 Over Yuli Gurriel 233 .284 .325 .472 .334 0.5 Under Josh Reddick 168 .269 .324 .420 .315 0.4 Under Aledmys Diaz 67 .259 .320 .434 .317 0.2 Push Myles Straw 44 .259 .334 .327 .293 0.1 Under Abraham Toro 23 .249 .323 .422 .317 0.1 Push Name Innings ERA FIP WAR Zack Greinke 74.0 4.08 4.19 1.1 Over, Justin Verlander 68.0 3.34 3.45 1.7 Push Lance McCullers Jr. 55.0 3.86 3.86 1.1 Under Joshua James 42.0 4.05 4.11 0.7 Under
I agree with you mostly, but I won't agree with blaming Astros fans for not liking the tidal wave of complete BS that's come from the mediots and their idiot sheep followers.
Name ABs Average OBP Slugging wOBA WAR Alex Bregman 241 .289 .398 .549 .394 2.5 Under Carlos Correa 223 .270 .356 .503 .358 1.8 {Over George Springer 236 .272 .362 .506 .365 1.8 { Under Jose Altuve 238 .300 .363 .495 .360 1.6 { Under Yordan Alvarez 199 .284 .369 .561 .380 1.2 {Push Michael Brantley 218 .290 .349 .459 .341 0.9 {Push Kyle Tucker 166 .257 .323 .471 .332 0.7 {Over Yuli Gurriel 233 .284 .325 .472 .334 0.5 {Over Josh Reddick 168 .269 .324 .420 .315 0.4 {Over Aledmys Diaz 67 .259 .320 .434 .317 0.2 {Over Myles Straw 44 .259 .334 .327 .293 0.1 {Over Abraham Toro 23 .249 .323 .422 .317 0.1 {Over Name Innings ERA FIP WAR Zack Greinke 74.0 4.08 4.19 1.1 {Over Justin Verlander 68.0 3.34 3.45 1.7 {Under Lance McCullers Jr. 55.0 3.86 3.86 1.1 { Push Joshua James 42.0 4.05 4.11 0.7 {Push Thoughts on handicapping this season: Smaller sample and increased variables should make for wildly unpredictable individual outcomes but push overall outcomes toward the middle. Elite SP will over perform as innings limits are no concern and races are tighter. Aging players will over perform as less games means less wear down. Fresher arms and more arms available mean hitters at more of a disadvantage. I have a feeling Tucker is going to play really well.
I encounter more the media is evil and picking on us, than I actually see the media pick on us for the past 2-3 months. It is kind of like people complaining about ESPN hating Houston teams....why were they watching ESPN in the first place. I typically read the evil Athletic (I avoid avoid articles by he who shall not be named) and Fangraphs (though their articles are more opinion pieces than I like since Cameron went to the Padres) for national news. For the most part, I follow Astros fans and there is a lot of troll feeding going on.
My observations are different. I constantly see references to the "Astros sign-stealing scandal", as if it weren't happening all over the place -- confirmed by a growing pile of sources, no less. I see articles calling the Astros 'villains'. There are still--all these months later--radio shows having 'experts' on to discuss the effect of the 'Astros cheating scandal' on the sport, and on the hall-of-fame chances of the players involved (oh, the mediots assure their sheep, it's going to hurt their chances greatly). It's a tidal wave of sanctimonious, hypocritical, unintelligent bull****, and I don't fault any Astros fan who calls it for the complete BS that it is. Secondly, I don't observe a slowdown of the BS on social media. I see every time the Astros post a highlight, at least a dozen idiots posting "cheater". The wives of Astros players get trolled when they post photos of their kids. It's a tidal wave of BS, and some of it goes way too far (someone wished Josh Reddick's kid would die--I mean, surely it was a 'joke', but it was a sick joke). Do I blame Astros fans for that ****? Nope.
Alex Bregman 241 .289 .398 .549 .394 2.5 Push Carlos Correa 223 .270 .356 .503 .358 1.8 Push George Springer 236 .272 .362 .506 .365 1.8 Push Jose Altuve 238 .300 .363 .495 .360 1.6 Push A lot of data on these guys and stats are pretty solid here. Yordan Alvarez 199 .284 .369 .561 .380 1.2 Over He hits ball hard, and I don't think Fangraphs projection takes this into account, yet Michael Brantley 218 .290 .349 .459 .341 0.9 Under Slight under here. Kyle Tucker 166 .257 .323 .471 .332 0.7 Over Same as Alvarez, though to a lesser extent. Yuli Gurriel 233 .284 .325 .472 .334 0.5 Under For a guy with moderate power, he was showing off major power numbers laat year. Basically, the opposite of Alvarez. Josh Reddick Under He just hasn't looked good lately for long stretches. Aledmys Diaz 67 .259 .320 .434 .317 0.2 Over He had a lot of balls that he just barely missed last year. Myles Straw 44 .259 .334 .327 .293 0.1 over He'll get more ABs. I think his average will be better. Abraham Toro 23 .249 .323 .422 .317 0.1 Push He's going to need opportunity to show anything, and I hope he doesn't get it. Name Innings ERA FIP WAR Zack Greinke 74.0 4.08 4.19 1.1 Over I think odds are good he'll be slightly better than this, but has a decent chance to fall apart. Justin Verlander 68.0 3.34 3.45 1.7 Push Lance McCullers Jr. 55.0 3.86 3.86 1.1 Over He looks good. Not a pitching mechanic expert, but something looks better. Joshua James 42.0 4.05 4.11 0.7 Over Command has looked better. He's got the stuff
On radio shows, they should be treated like ESPN. They are out there to create stories. Astros fans reading/listening and responding to these sources just feeds the trolls. Astros did cheat so I have no problem with the top offseason story being this for the media on general as the Astros have earned being called cheaters and villains. It is perfectly fair for this to be brought up as long as it isn't overly done. In FanGraphs latest series on positional player analysis....only once was it brought up. The context was that it likely won't affect Altuve's Hall of Fame chances. On second point, there are a lot of a-holes out there. Social media will be nightmare for at least another year or two. Though, I mostly see only the barbs back from Astros fans as I choose who I follow and read. I try to create threads that have nothing to do with sign stealing and yet here we are.
A neighbor in Florida complains about the cheating Astros. He was especially peeved because the cheating Astros eliminated the Rays. When I informed him the Astros didn't cheat in 2018 and 2019, he asked how I knew that. I told him that MLB specifically exonerated them in 2018 and 2019 in their report. When he dismissed the report, I asked him why he believed the "bad" stuff and not the "good" stuff. He just walked away. I didn't get the opportunity to ask if he was going to boo Charlie Morton.
But it is being overly done. And, LOTS OF TEAMS CHEATED. The point is, why are the Astros being scapegoated? "They are out there to create stories." There's a gaping story about Manfred sweeping the Yankees' cheating under the rug: where are the Drellich, et. al.? Where are the endless stories about the Red Sox? Why are the players who've come forward been mentioned once, barely, and not gone after with pitchforks, tar, and feathers the way they did the Astros? Their job is to create stories? Or is it to push MLB's chosen narrative and stir up the sheep for more clicks? I've never been on the "East Coast Bias" bandwagon; I've criticized it many times. But this: this is insane. This is awful. It's not ok. Bully for FanGraphs. Did they bring it up on Aaron Judge's analysis? Because if they didn't, it's LAZY. Jose Altuve's team IS NOT THE ONLY TEAM THAT CHEATED. Not. Even. Close. You are correct. I am sorry. Additionally, I can see that I'm a bit more irritated by this than maybe I should be. Sorry for the thread derail. In closing, I'd like to say that while I was wrong to derail the thread, Manfred is still a complete ****storm of a commissioner, and a hypocrite.
But it is being overly done. Just as the Astros tribalism is overly done. The Astros cheated and got caught. The media can't go around blaming other teams specifically or other players like you want them to do for Judge in 2017 because the Yankees weren't stupid enough to bang on trash cans.
Are you serious right now? More so than other fan bases? If you really think that, we disagree. Disagree. So it's more heinous because the cue was audible? BS.
Other fan bases shouldn't affect Astros fan base. Media and other fan bases didn't derail this thread. On audible comment, that is a Strawman. My comment about it being audible is that it got recorded and helped Astros get caught. Besides for Red Sox, other teams have not been caught lately It is a very biased opinion to think media should bring up sign stealing scandal for Judge when he hasn't specifically been caught lately unless Yankee letter proves MLB was able to connect bullpen phone infractions to sign stealing. I may be oversensitive, but I created this thread specifically to spur dialogue unrelated to COVID and sign stealing. This will be my last post on sign stealing in this thread.
Name ABs Average OBP Slugging wOBA WAR Alex Bregman 241 .289 .398 .549 .394 2.5 Push Carlos Correa 223 .270 .356 .503 .358 1.8 Under George Springer 236 .272 .362 .506 .365 1.8 Push Jose Altuve 238 .300 .363 .495 .360 1.6 Over Yordan Alvarez 199 .284 .369 .561 .380 1.2 Under Michael Brantley 218 .290 .349 .459 .341 0.9 Push Kyle Tucker 166 .257 .323 .471 .332 0.7 Over Yuli Gurriel 233 .284 .325 .472 .334 0.5 Push Josh Reddick 168 .269 .324 .420 .315 0.4 Under Aledmys Diaz 67 .259 .320 .434 .317 0.2 Over Myles Straw 44 .259 .334 .327 .293 0.1 Push Abraham Toro 23 .249 .323 .422 .317 0.1 Push Name Innings ERA FIP WAR Zack Greinke 74.0 4.08 4.19 1.1 Over Justin Verlander 68.0 3.34 3.45 1.7 Push Lance McCullers Jr. 55.0 3.86 3.86 1.1 Over Joshua James 42.0 4.05 4.11 0.7 Over I'm high on Josh James. I think he breaks out and becomes more consistent this year. I'd put Over for Toro but I don't think he'll get enough opportunity this year. I'm worried about Alvarez. The short season may favor him, but I always get worried about opposing pitchers figuring out how to pitch to young sluggers. I'm just a worrier about everything though - hopefully I'm wrong.
