Neither number is a concern. Those are a small fraction of overall mortality numbers. We are at the lowest covid death total since late March. The fear p*rn media is hyping the case spikes, but that hysteria is unsustainable if the death rate continues declining. Ah yes, the "wait two weeks" mantra. We shall see. Feel free to come back to this post in a few weeks time.
There are many factors beyond "cases" and "deaths". The ultra-Republican Govenor of Arizona now agrees too: https://www.axios.com/arizona-coronavirus-doug-ducey-3760bfaa-8267-4e78-8f6a-5c56248fa3cf.html Arizona governor orders bars, theaters, gyms to close for 30 days And given that you can't seem to read graphs for some reason, this chart *does* show deaths generally tracking with a 14 day lag in cases, with death rates obviously improving some as NY got out of the hospital overload hell and we're learning better what does and doesn't work in treatment. In April, we had a testing shortage, so actual cases were underreported creating an undercount of cases early on.
If you're actually interested in learning about the data (which I doubt you are), then I recommend this article: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/coron...ure-is-obscured-by-ultimate-lagging-indicator From the article Have we become better about treating the disease? Almost certainly - and death rates may be lower because of it. But to claim that there's not a lag time is foolish. The data is an absolute mess. By all means though, please continue to inform yourself on COVID-19 from some random Ohio State Buckeyes podcaster on Twitter. Source matters. The lengths to which this has been politicized is insane. This really shouldn't be a partisan issue - this is a serious illness and even if you don't die from it, there are serious complications that you could be facing if you acquire this disease.
Lol that guy's tweet " deaths arent a lagging var" followed by a graph .... where he lags the ****ing deaths ! Death is by definition a lagging variable , you have to get sick first in order to die from it . I suppose in the situation where the guy immediately dies from the disease its not lagging. A real case can be that a person shows up to the hospital very sick and dies quickly ... then you wouldn't see a lag. But if people are getting tested while in the early stages of the disease then any deaths that result from that pool of cases will be lagging . And to discern exactly how much a spike in positive tests will lead to x deaths later is impossible. The data is too ****ed, how many people even get to see the data at that level ?
Is it true that places in Texas are having false positives? This seems less likely than false negatives, to me. I guess if they run batch testing, though, I could see it... My grandma was tested pre surgery on Thursday and found out today it was positive. She has no symptoms. My entire family has been around her. She's moving out of her home, has medical issues, and is going through a divorce. This thing will be very scary if she is truly positive. Many of my family members have potential escalating factors...
G4 EA H1N1 Spoiler G4 EA H1N1 is an influenza virus discovered in China, with evidence of initial infection having been found in people who work in abattoirs and the swine industry. A reassortment of an avian virus and two strains of H1N1, it is related to A/H1N1pdm09, the virus responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic.[1][2][3] It mainly affects pigs, but two cases have been identified in humans.[1] As of June 2020, it is not easily transmissible between humans,[1] but it has "pandemic potential".[4][1] A group of scientists wrote in a PNAS article: "G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans...Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented." To date (30/06/2020), there have been five human cases of illness linked to this type of virus, the team reports. Two of the patients infected with the virus had neighbours who reared pigs, suggesting that the G4 EA H1N1 virus can transmit from swine to human. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G4_EA_H1N1 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/swine-flu-strain-human-pandemic-potential-increasingly-found-chinese-pigs
Deaths do trend behind. That said we haven't seen a major spike yet. We are at about 30 deaths per day over the last 7 days and that has more or less been stable for about a week, but the % positive has jumped significantly in that time. Let's hope deaths stay low.
Anybody else worried about rushing this vaccine? I know its damn near impossible but I've seen the Planet of the Apes reboot.
You're not alone. The people I know in big pharma in the SF Bay Area are telling me "no way I would volunteer for one of these trials." The average vaccine (and we only have, like, 18 or 20 of them in existence when you think about it) takes 10 or more years to properly develop.
I think the concern is certainly merited, but at the same time, no vaccine in history has had the kind of resources - both human and financial - put into it that this one has. It *should* take substantially less time than other vaccines.
I'm just expecting it to take longer than expected even with this moon shot approach we are taking and to possibly even never come to fruition.
