2020 Presidential Election

For the mojo files:

 

Rhetorical Flourish Allowed!

 

Any other year I would believe that but the enthusiasm to vote period is high. I think if margins continue like this it will depress the Trump vote especially if it means waiting in long lines.

It's much easier to say you support Trump in a phone poll than actually wait in lines among a pandemic to vote for him.

 

Americam answer the question... are you better now than you were four years ago?

 

A new trump campaign ad... from VoteVets

 

5%'er @bigtexxx

 

Im going to stand with Americans against Trump.

 

Lol so yelling "ANTIFA!" is the best Trump can come up with now?

 

Trump needs some enemy to attack. He has only one mode - attack. That’s all he understands. That’s why he is spinning and wants Biden to be more visible.

before long, trump campaign is going to argue that Biden is antifa member.

 

This group works as hard as Trump claims he works.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/poli...navirus-deaths-greatest-generation/index.html

 

It all go to show one thing WORST POTUS EVER

 

I thought Bush was? me so confused.

 

I saw a tv spot the other day that literally connected Biden to Antifa. Trumps already ahead of you on the batsh$t craziness. Just imagine where we’ll be in October.

 

Trump decides to drop a missile on Biden because Barr wrote an opinion saying Trump has absolute authority to crush Antifa and Tucker runs a segment on Biden being the head of Antifa.


Here is the bad news for Trump’s campaign: people know and like Joe Biden. People know he is left of center but closer to center than either Trump or Bernie are. This is why reliable polls have Biden up 14 against an incumbent. People fundamentally understand that Biden is going to be a President on day 1, especially in these difficult times when we need real leadership.

 

We are all speculating here what could happen. That is the basis of my argument with Sam Fisher that we don't know how things could change in the next few months and my argument with those who consider the election essentially over (rhetorical flourish) is the belief that things will largely remain the same. I don't believe we should expect them to remain the same.

First I will point that even with Trump's horrible record his approval ratings haven't really dropped from what they've been most of his term. Most of his term he's been in the low 40's and he still is in his low 40's.

I agree the economy is a big factor and will heavily outweigh other factors. As I noted in the 4 issues that I think could flip the election I think the economy could improve because people will either ignore the lockdown measures, like what we see already, or get used to them and find ways to work around them. I know that is happening already as offices and other businesses find ways to get employees back in. We very well in a few months come to a new normal state regarding dealing with the disease. The economy probably won't be back to what it was in February but it might not be as bad as it was in April and May. Given Trump has a low bar that could benefit him.

Regarding the law and order issue, I will admit this is speculative and based on anecdotal and partial info. As someone who has been heavily involved with neighborhood safety the last month I am getting a sense of unease. While here in Minneapolis there is strong support for defund and disband in the last week there is also a sense of unease about the rush to it and even the City Councilors who are pushing this issue are going to pains to say that there still will be LE to deal with violence. Just this afternoon at a community meeting my City Councilman even said that what happens after defund and disband might look very much like what we have now. This issue is one where perception is incredibly important and just a few incidents can greatly change perception on it, see attached piece:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...s-of-crime-continue-to-conflict-with-reality/

Law and order as an issue has been key or very influential in several presidential races and at a time where we have seen wide spread looting along with seemingly protesters taking over and driving out LE in a part of a major city could easily feed into a perception that crime is much worse than it is. Especially among suburban voters. If Democrats already have the reputation as being soft on crime and there is a very good reason why Pelosi doesn't want to see House Democrats talking about "defund and disband". In the battleground states the suburbs are the going to decide the election. If voters in places like Grosse Pointe and Racine perceptions change that could tip the election.

What I'm more worried though really is what unexpected things could happen and I'll keep on repeating it. Based on what has happened just this year we should expect that something that is not really being focused on could happen. The reason why I'm arguing is that complacency in this election is dangerous.

 

This is always true of any election. Trump or Biden could get Covid and die in the next 4 months. Or a meteor could strike the Earth and destroy the west coast. Of course things could happen to change this election.

But in the "normal" scheme of things, nothing will. The economy could go on fire and nothing would change. Coronavirus could disappear completely and nothing would change. Biden beating Trump was completely predictable a year ago. Why? Because Biden has nothing to do with it - he's basically an invisible placeholder for "non-scary generic Democrat" that doesn't alienate anyone. This vote is entirely about Trump, and it's *personal*. The economy was great in 2018 and people still hated Trump. Biden would have won the election comfortably in June 2019, December 2019, February 2020, and today. That's not changing in the next 4 months. Trump only knows how to double-down on stupid, and even if he did know how to run a campaign to try to appeal to anyone outside of his base, the damage is done. Women and high-education people flocked to Dems over the past few years, while white men moved towards the GOP - the former group has shifted far more than the latter. Minorities have also grown as a portion of the population over 4 years, and more have registered to vote. Both parties have shifted their appeal. Comparing 2020 to 2016 and wondering if it will be similar ignores all the realities of what has happened over 4 years and data from literally hundreds of elections. It's like than saying Democrats dominated the south in the 1950s so maybe they will today.

The big effect of the last 4 months is that the Senate is now in play (and Dems are likely favored) and places like Ohio, Georgia and Texas are legitimately in play.

 

Change is a given. Unknown is also a given. It has always been like that.

On the economy - it can go on fire in a month. It can dive to a almost sure depression level in a few months too. Both of these aren't 0% event, but how likely? Yea, one of them is close to 0% while the other is closer to being a reality. I don't want to speculate more, but if things proceed as they have, the likely chance is the economy (as bad as it is already) would more likely stay as is or get worse. The stock market is more likely to pause or take a dive. Cases are going up fast, we are entering a new phase that doesn't look pretty... we'll see.

For law and order - who didn't think that the protests might backfire for the DEM? Look at all that looting you DEM support. But yet... here we are today with the polls after weeks of media attention on these protests and riots. BLM isn't a negative as it was in 2015/16, and could actually be a positive in 2020 for the DEM.

While change and unknown is a given, there is also something that is almost a given, how Trump response to "change" and "unknown" events. The record hasn't been exactly good for him. Not to be cocky, but the chances are he would fk up.

 

Those are certainly valid points but this is why if you look at Trump's approval rating it hasn't changed that much. If things were really so bad for Trump we should expect the bottom to drop out of Trump's support. It isn't.

We also have to factor in that while there are many high profile Republican defections Trump's support among Republicans has remained remarkably consistent and likely there will be some vote coming home.

 

Babe Ruth once held the record for most home runs.... one day, Hank Aaron surpassed him.

Thank goodness for Velcro... who would dress you otherwise?