I give up. It doesn't make any sense, but according to @rocketsjudoka it only makes sense if you take an isolated snapshot that supports his argument, otherwise you're engaging in confirmation bias. I guess that's why I don't understand logic and Sun Tzu, something something
And you took the partial cycle (Jan till now) and are boiling it down to 1 or 2 day snapshots and saying "Hillary led big too!". She did, but for as much or as long. This is a very dishonest argument. I mean you start with the conclusion - the future is uncertain, so I can't use the past to predict the future, so your solution is to use an even smaller fragment of the past, to argue for your future. I reject the **** out of this. Part of being human and conscious is modeling the past to predict the future. A lot of science has been done on this. And you're doing it badly....on purpose. Fine, but I'm happy to note, that even if you turn out to be right - you're ****ing doing it wrong man.
Good idea. Invest shitloads in penny biotech during the big dip. Wait for his pump n dump. Collect hedged winnings while the rest of the nation is flushed down the toilet with the bleach cocktails. The guardian article that your article refers to lists many more nasty tricks. How do you fight a president who has turned the executive into a branding machine solely for re-election and who aims for the groin? Grab him by the p***y? Weaponize the press even more? If you've ever appreciated decency, process, and stability in our political institutions, the rest of the year won't be for you.
U.S. Supreme Court declines Texas Democrats' request to allow all Texans to vote by mail The high court declined to immediately reinstate a federal judge's order that would have allowed all Texans to request absentee ballots if they fear catching COVID-19 at crowded polling places. BY ALEXA URA JUNE 26, 202020 HOURS AGO Republicans are hell bent on putting vulnerable people at risk!! Disgusting.
Political leanings should never impact a U.S. Supreme Court decision, but here we are. The Republican Party needs to be taught a lesson in November, mail in voting or not. They also should spend many years in the wilderness until they reform their party.
geez . . . clearly Biden voters need to chillax https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Dishonest as compared to comparing a whole election to a partial cycle and essentially declaring the result over? Were you one of those who were saying the Stros would be swept after game 2 of 2019 WS? What's also interesting is that you've said we shouldn't look to 2016 yet are basing an argument now on the whole 2016 election cycle. As far as the snapshot. Yes I'm pointing out that if we look at the snapshot of the 2016 election at the same point of the 2020 cycle it does appear very similar. As other posters have noted it didn't really tighten up until Fall as the graph provided shows. We're not in the Fall of 2020 yet posters such as yourself are certain of the result of the election at this point. Many were certain of the election too in June of 2016. Yes of course the future is uncertain that is the whole point. We can certainly make predictions about the future based upon comparisons from past actions nothing wrong with that. What I'm challenging you on is the matter of certainty. I don't think anyone should be certain of the result of this election and I definitely don't think anyone should act on that certainty.
Allow me some rhetorical flourish here. To the credit of those I'm debating with they aren't ruling out the possibility of a Trump victory but that it is very unlikely. I believe one poster put it at 10%. I will say it again because it is relevant. Going into election day 2016 it was unlikely that Trump was going to win. 538 put the chance at about 33%. As any gambler knows long odds sometimes get hit. I agree that Trump's odds at the moment appear longer than the morning of election day 2016. what I find troubling though is that Trump's approval rating hasn't really moved much since he was elected. In fact his lowest point was shortly after he got inaugurated. That tells me that his record as terrible as it is hasn't really changed his level of support and it won't take much to shift.
Question: what do studies show about the correlation between polling results and voter turnout? Meaning, for those of us who want Biden to win, should we be concerned that being ahead in polling might lead people to stay home? Or does being ahead in polls cause “momentum” heading into Election Day and increase turnout? Intuitively, I think Biden being in the lead in polling could be bad and result in overconfidence and people staying home, particularly since covid is almost certainly going to still be a factor.
Yes. Taking a snapshot of a few days is way more dishonest than taking the cumulative empiricalpicture. Taking the cumulative empirical picture and not taking into account the external factors is more dishonest. If I had a scale of dishonesty - your snapshot approach would be the most dishonest of the 3 approaches. And it happens to be the only one that reinforces your priors.
people are not gonna stay home...not when staying home helps Trump get re-elected...not after what happened in 2016 the anti-Trump sentiment is very strong...4 more years of that disgusting creature will be devastating...the country has been set back enough
Trump can win yes, but you haven't really outlined a scenario by which he can win. I've mentioned he needs help from the economy but you seem to go the Law & Order route which is perplexing given that people aren't afraid of a lack of law and order right now but the opposite. What's Trump's path to victory? Keep in Mind that he is not running as an outsider but on his record the past four years.
I don’t envision a scenario where voters stay home due to overconfidence. Third party candidates (ala Jill Stein or Gary Johnson last time) will garner very few votes as well. Not to mention voter registration drives will be going full tilt this time around. voter apathy generally occurs when a party has held power for a full two terms. Winning party gets complacent and opposing party turns out. One-term incumbents are a mixed bag. All of this really goes out the window in 2020 though. I can’t fathom most normal voters sitting on the sideline this November
I don't trust the polls. We see on these boards how many folks claim to not support Trump but actually do support Trump. I have no doubt the polls have something similar. That being said, Biden isn't as dislikable as Hillary. There will be fewer voters that wouldn't vote for either candidate last time and will go ahead and vote for Biden this time. People have seen Trump fail, and while the die-hards won't have their minds changed, those that voted out of Republican loyalty only, or animosity to Hillary will either stay at home this time or may even vote against him. Trump won the battleground states by a very slim margin last time. It is possible for him to lose this time. It isn't definite or a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination.
trump goes back to his base... retweets ad thanks a supporter shouting out "WHITE POWER" in this video. Wonder if its the new trump campaign theme?
My my my... between golf, retweeting and thanking videos of trump supporters shouting "WHITE POWER", denying being briefed on russians putting bounties on American soldiers, and this... trump has had a busy weekend...
Mark Cuban hit on something very profound regarding Trump: “He doesn’t want to run a country, he wants to run a campaign.” Trump is a 74 year old man, in decline, obese and whatever other health issues he has. What do we know about him as a person? Narcissist. Self absorbed. Loves fame. Needs adoration. Disdain for law and rules. Wants to do whatever he wants to do, say whatever he wants to say. In my view, Trumps primary motivation for re-election is not to gain another term, it is to avoid the shame of defeat and being a “one termer.” I believe there is a big part of him that would totally be fine with not having to serve another four years as president. He could golf, carouse, grab p*****s, tweet, whatever (I know, I know, he’s doing a lot of that now) without as much scrutiny. He could run his mouth all day on OAN and Fox without by expectation that he govern. He is an old man and 4 years is a very large part of his remaining years. I think there is a big part of him that would love nothing more than a narrow loss that would (1) enable him to stir up a grand controversy on voter fraud and the like, (2) escape the responsibility of four more years, and (3) give him the ability to argue that he isn’t a one termer. Can you imagine how much fun he would have in the media about conspiracies, fraud? He would be free to “campaign” and rant for the rest of his life — which is what he loves the most — without being responsible for doing anything. He could be the most vocal critic of government and every sitting president as long as he lives, and would still weird considerable power to shape public opinion be directing the views and actions of his base. Like it or not, he owns a mob of millions of Americans and that will not go away until he is dead. People think the Republican Party will be free of his grip if he loses in 2020. Trump will go to great lengths to ensure that his voice carries on.
