I'm calling it now, Rockets will win the 2020 championship

I think this is our best opportunity by far... we have a team that hasnt had to endure the season long grind of MDA before going into the playoffs... Everybody should be healthy and should have the endurance to crank on the abbreviated season.

I think the time lapse will most benefit the oldest and youngest teams... we were one of oldest or the oldest... and no rookie wall for the youngsters...

 

i can agree w/ everything you're saying, but at the same time the league has lost a TON of revenue. Fakers-Bucks makes a lot of sense/cents for silver..

 

Westbrook and Harden is just as much of a box office draw as LeBron and AD

 

I am just glad to have basketball back.

 

just an example, but lebron has like 4.5x as many IG followers as russ

 

sure HOU has a better offense than BOS. By eye test. By best players getting doubled. Etc. but while HOU he the 2nd best ORtg in the league when the season stopped, BOS was still 5th. They have 3 twenty ppg scorers plus a 17 ppg scorer. As I noted it’s a different approach. An approach you’d generally take in the playoffs as better players typically prevail over more really good players, but Harden/Russ have to consistently prove that to lose whatever playoff label they have.

And, that ignores defense. Where Boston had the 4th best Drtg and HOU was 15th.

Statistically, historically, teams more like Boston - equally good and both top 10 if not way better on BOTH offense and defense - win rings. Teams like Hou, or MDAs Suns both have been consistent too 3 offensive teams but mid pack defensive teams and you see what happens with them. It’s not a surprise then that the year 1 CP3 Rockets were basically his injury away from truly decrowning an all time great team. Those Rockets were 1st in Ortg and 7th in Drtg. Every other MDA Rockets squad has been 15th or worse in DRtg.

btw a team like Portland last year (18-19). Third Ortg. 16th Drtg.

being great on one side and mediocre on the other can certainly get you far but basically never gets you a ring.

The 09/10 Lakers were 11th on offense and 4th on defense. The 08/09 Celtics were 10th on offense but first on defense. The 05/06 Heat were 7th on offense and 9th on defense (so not great at either but had DWade and an old Shaq and Zo).

you have to go back to the 03/04 Pistons themselves to find the true anomaly. 18th on offense. 2nd on defense. Then the 00/01 Lakers who were a shocking 21st in defense, 2nd on offense (but with Shaq, Kobe and Phil). the first Spurs champion team was 11th on offense but 1st on defense.

the first Rockets squad was 15th on offense and 2nd on defense. So there’s an interesting relevant twist. This years team is the exact opposite.

So it’s possible, there are some standout exceptions where unbalanced teams win a ring. But very few. The Pistons being most noticeable.

All the chips would have to fall right for one. For two it’s not super clear to me in the short 100% small ball experiment where this version of the team ranks on each side. They seem just as if not more potent offensively. But seems just as average defensively - it really works at times and really fails at times. For three you’d have to be betting on MDA. And I like the dude but all his great teams are the same. Great on offense. Average on defense. And ultimately fail in the playoffs.

I’m obviously rooting hard for a ring. But it’s not hard to see why oddsmakers, who are heavy data focused, would have similar odds for both the Rockets and Celtics.

 

this is helpful for sure but doesn’t necessarily only help the Rockets. Recall Kawhi was skipping games left and right with the Clippers. And the Lakers weren’t exactly super young and fresh. Never mind CP3 himself on the Thunder (sure they shouldn’t really be a threat/contender but so far had been as good as the Rockets).

I still think EG will be key and the key beneficiary of this. Hopefully his knee is as close to 100% now as it’s going to get.

but that aside the team still has to just generally be better defensively.

However it comes about - making the other team go small and being less all around as the small ball Rockets (I believe more potential if this happens as this squad was designed and is practicing specifically for that as opposed to other teams who will be out of their preferred style... though there are certainly some squads capable of going small quite well like the Clippers), or just “running” the other teams bigs off the court like the game against the Lakers (I believe still a potentially successful approach but lower probability).

 

@DreamShook

 

Does anything even matter anymore? Strike-throughs can't save us.

 

I do not understand why there is no rookie wall all of a sudden but pls continue.

Most of the top rookies fall in the first round or prior to that.

 

for safety though, lol

 

Hmm, the 3 amigos of CP3, SGA and Schroeder seem pretty potent to me.

They do things differently, each assigned to do different things.

 

thanks for the detailed write-up laying out the history till now

just curious, are the off and def rating #'s the same for us for both periods before and after our mid-season roster re-make?

regarding double-teams, i was actually implying at the end of close games when defenses lock-in and you need to put points on the board -- that's where i believe we have a clear advantage over even tatum or kemba

 

The 'rookie wall' is just when rookies run out of juice mid season - because the NBA season is longer than a college season...

 

Interesting angle. Thx op.

IMO - if we win, there is no asterisk. To all the losers (teams we beat on way to a ring), come stop us or stfu.

Btw, if no pandemic happened, AND by some chance we had gone on to win 'ship - they would find something to shiiit on.
Lebron is old (AD was hurt)
Worriers team was hurt, lost KD
So on and so forth
*** em.

Go Rockets.

 

Y’all done broke Dreamshook!

 

This

 

I am glad to have @DreamShook strikethrus back.

 

Will there be an illegal coughing violation?

 

If we can figure out a way to keep the rebounding battle close, I believe we have a good chance. Near the end we were getting outrebounded by like 20 regularly it seemed like.