Agreed. Having both platforms and its users consistently fact checking Trump’s posts and exposing his lying ass is enough.
Two different candidates (Clinton, Biden). And two different situations. Clinton was very smart and experienced, but not very well liked. Biden is very likable and that contrasts well against trump. And... trump does not seem able or even interested in making himself more likable between now and, well, any time in the future. So tough seeing where trump can whittle away at Biden's lead. Especially if the COVID-19 continues to impact the economy and hiring. The only area where trump gets better marks than Biden is the economy. A second big area where things differ is that in 2016 trump was a big unknown. Oh sure, we knew his personal behavior. But there was still some belief that trump the "business man" would bring some semblance of organizational and execution competence. Now, in 2020, we have seen his incompetence (in choosing a cabinet, in tackling major problems like the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact it had on economy and jobs. Hard to see that not holding back Democrats and Independents that voted for him in 2016. The economy *could* improve. And its possible (likely, in fact) that some last minute release of info (like the last minute Clinton news leading into 2016) may knock Biden. But whatever it might be, trump is still going to be unlikable and incompetent. And who knows... there may still be even more bad stuff coming out against trump...
I get your point, but really, all it said is that it's early and so things can change (a known). This data shows how far things have shifted since the election. Probably as importantly, the room for changes from now to Nov is much less likely to be a huge swing due to one main factor - Trump is no longer an unknown. He has un-govern for 2 years. Biden isn't an unknown either. There is simply less room for "giving someone new a try". The pic is from this article, which goes into much more details on the shift: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html ps. but as I say before, don't relax... he does have the power of the executive branch and a corrupt DoJ head as his personal attorney and campaigner
missed a golden opportunity for some chiastic rhetorical flourish "Clinton was very smart but not well liked. Biden is likable but not very smart."
Folks, right now a Biden Landslide is about as likely as a Trump victory in pure Bayesian terms I'm not saying to let your guard down, or stop voting or don't get upset when Trump/GOP try to steal the election yadda, yadda, it's just that the wishy washy "it's 2016 all over again" attitude is very dubious from an objective standpoint, and leads you to probably make policy choices or take actions that might even make a resounding beatdown of Trump less likely. He is on the ropes, you're going to box differently, it's riskier to get too cautious.
While that would be funny, I don't think that is going to happen because of the way the electoral college is. He'll lose in a landslide on the popular vote but it will be a close loss for him electoral vote wise. He'll complain of voter fraud and outside interference but lose none the less. I can't see him EVER making a concession speech so that is where I think it's going to get "interesting".
All sound points, but when people go to the ballot machine and nobody sees who they voted for, what will they do? Trumpers are going to trump. Trump haters will vote biden. What about the people who dislike trump, think he is an ass, think he is not presidential, think he is racist, think he is unstable...but they believe that trump will help the economy more than Biden and Trump won't tax them as much? What about the people who face higher taxes if Biden is elected, who recognize systemic injustice exists out there... but in truth, it's really not part of their every day world. They live in nice or middle class neighborhoods, don't have policing problems, and do not want policing to change based on problems that other communities are facing. They don't really have any meaningful relationships or touchpoints with black, brown or yellow people that could cause them to personally care about what's going on. What will these folks do? We all know a lot of people that are described by the statements above. When they're in the ballot box, with nobody to deride them for voting Trump, what will they do? Defeating Trump is far from in the bag.
Right now the answer to that "what will they do" question is vote for Biden and it's really not even close. There's also literally no evidence of a "shy Trump voter" effect either. He is losing every poll even those without a human interviewer
Didn't say it was in the bag... but those voters that will vote for trump because of pocketbook reasons will vote for him (or any republican) no matter who the Democrat running is. I am only concerned about voters who will vote for the candidate that is morally and ethically sound, and competent. I am most concerned about women voters, suburban voters, young voters, and older voters. In 2016, a number of those voters went with trump. If enough of those voters choose Biden instead, especially in a few key states like WI, MI, FL, NC, and ARI... well, it won't matter what trump's base does. All those states went to trump in 2016. Biden wins a few of those, and Biden wins. Its possible that Biden only needs to win one of those five and he wins. Not saying its in the bag... but also its not just like 2016 either.
Curious... why? I think most everyone knows or think they know what Biden's positions are. And how and where they differ from trump. In this race its a binary election. Its trump. Or not trump.
Do y'all think that if/when trumpybear loses, he will actually finish out the term? I wouldn't be surprised to see him resign in a hissyfit. I can't begin to imagine the moping that will occur in those 2-1/2 months.
Caravans are gearing up, adjusting their mounted flame throwers and giant speakers. We still have to see if the MS-13 and the Antifuhs are going to ride shotgun.
I think he does...he'll spend the entire time ranting and raving, calling the election "rigged," probably submit a few lawsuits to see if he can convince a judge to hold up the results, go golfing on the government's dime a few times, take a trip or two to see his properties overseas on the government's dime, and then probably leave office vowing to be back in 2024 when the US figures out that Sleepy Joe stole the election and that he's a terrible president anyway. He'll also try to pardon everybody he can (as soon as they pay him off of course), try to pardon himself before he leaves office, and probably try to cuddle up to Putin as much as possible in case he needs to leave the country if the pardon's don't work out.
