Just got this @ 6/2/20 0813: Recommended that your organization's Business Continuity Team consider activating your Tropical Cyclone Response Plan at this time. Discussion: Tropical Depression Three is predicted to track north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, begin impacting the deepwater areas offshore Texas and Louisiana on Saturday, and the Louisiana and Texas coasts on Sunday. The center could move inland somewhere between Houston, Texas and New Orleans, Louisiana on Monday morning. However, there is enough uncertainty in the landfall and extent of impacts of this potential storm that we are indicating all coastal areas between Corpus Christi, Texas east to Pensacola, Florida are Response Plan Activator - Positive. This means that we think there is enough risk to your location that you should activate your hurricane response plan. RPA Positive Locations: Location: Galveston, TX (newly upgraded)
Newest: Current Location: 19.5N, 92.6W Geographic Reference: 150 miles NE of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico Movement: West-southwest at 6 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 7 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1002 mb Key Points 1. Tropical Depression Three could become a strong tropical storm before moving into southern Mexico. 2. Additional severe flooding and mudslides are expected over Central America and southern Mexico. 3. Confidence is increasing that there will be a moderate to strong tropical storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast early next week. Our Forecast Tropical Depression Three is becoming better organized in the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for further development over the next day or so, as long as the center remains over water. The latest model guidance indicates that the depression could become a strong tropical storm before it interacts with Mexico. Our forecast is now for the depression to become a strong tropical storm with winds of 65 mph before it interacts with southern Mexico in about 24 hours. It is not impossible that the system could approach hurricane intensity prior to then. We still expect the likely tropical storm to linger around the southern shore of the Bay of Campeche of a couple of days. This will result in continued heavy rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America. These rains could last through the remainder of the week. Some weakening is also expected to occur as the system interacts with land, though it is currently forecast to remain as a tropical storm. Confidence is increasing that this depression will remain the dominant system, and that it will be the one to move toward the northern Gulf Coast. Our forecast track in the longer range has been shifted slightly eastward, to be in better agreement with the ensemble probabilities. A slightly faster forward speed is also indicated. Landfall could occur Monday morning. As the system moves into the northern Gulf, we expect that the storm will be rather broad. This should serve to limit intensification. For this reason, we are forecasting peak winds to be 60 mph as it moves into the northern Gulf. However, the broad structure also means that a large portion of the coast could see strong winds and high tidal surges, similar to Tropical Storm Frances back in 1998. If the system were to retain a tight core, as the European model indicates, then the system could potentially approach hurricane intensity before landfall. Expected Impacts on Land Southern Bay of Campeche: Widespread power outages are expected near where the center makes landfall, along with widespread severe flash flooding and numerous mudslides. Widespread major flood damage is expected. Remainder of southern Mexico and Central America: Continued flash flooding and mudslides should cause widespread major flood damage. Expected Impacts Offshore Bay of Campeche: Winds of tropical storm force will occur soon near the center. Waves over 20 feet will also be possible. Northwest Gulf of Mexico : Squalls may reach the deepwater areas off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by early Saturday morning and the near-shore waters along the Louisiana coast on Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely on Sunday and Monday across a large part of the northwest Gulf.
Maybe. But surf will be up! Latest: Current Location: 19.1N, 92.9W Geographic Reference: 125 miles ENE of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico Movement: Southwest at 4 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 7 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 205 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1003 mb Key Points 1. Cristobal is expected to become a strong tropical storm before it strikes Mexico. 2. Additional severe flooding and mudslides are expected over Central America and southern Mexico. 3. The long term forecast track was shifted a bit to the east. Landfall is now expected along the central Louisiana Coast late Sunday or very early Monday. 4. We are forecasting Cristobal to be a bit larger than we were previously Our Forecast Cristobal is becoming better organized over the southern Bay of Campeche. Our forecast is for it to become a strong tropical storm with winds of 65 mph by the time it reaches the Mexican coast, east of Coatzacoalcos, in about 18 to 24 hours. Cristobal is then expected to move very slowly for a couple of days. This will allow for very heavy rainfall over an extended period of time. Severe to catastrophic flooding is expected for parts of southern Mexico and Central America through the remainder of the week. By Friday, we expect Cristobal to begin moving faster toward the north. Our forecast track has been shifted a bit eastward from earlier based upon the latest model guidance. We are now forecasting the system to move inland over the central Louisiana Coast late Sunday or early Monday. However, this is a 5 to 6 day forecast. The average error at this time period is around 200 miles. Thus, anywhere from the mid to upper Texas coast through the western Florida Panhandle is still threatened by this system. In addition, we are forecasting the system to be very large. Winds of tropical storm force are expected to extend more than 200 miles from the center when the system approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Some weakening is expected as the system lingers near southern Mexico, though we believe Cristobal will remain as a tropical storm. Some intensification is expected as it moves toward the northern Gulf. However, the broad wind field, along with moderate wind shear, should prevent any rapid intensification. Our forecast is for it to be a strong tropical storm with winds of 65 mph at landfall. We cannot rule out the system becoming a hurricane, as the European model is forecasting. The chance of the system becoming a hurricane would increase if the system were to retain a tight core. Expected Impacts on Land Southern Bay of Campeche: Widespread power outages are expected near where the center makes landfall, along with widespread severe to catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides. Widespread severe to catastrophic flood damage is expected. Remainder of southern Mexico and Central America: Continued flash flooding and mudslides should cause widespread major flood damage. Expected Impacts Offshore Bay of Campeche: Winds of tropical storm force are occurring within 60 miles to the south of the center. Waves over 20 feet will also be possible. Northwest Gulf of Mexico : Squalls may reach the deepwater areas off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late Friday or very early Saturday morning. They could reach the near-shore waters along the Louisiana coast by late Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are likely on Sunday and early Monday across a large part of the northwest Gulf.
I've done my part in the last 3 months and driven less. Gone to less restaurants and bars and possibly farted less. No super hurricanes this season?
Lol.. with the trends today, you’re likely right. Hell the CPC has one of those “Death Ridges” here next week. And the precip is all east. It’s almost like they are set on Louisiana getting the rain. Obviously things can change but the CPC seems to be confident in it to publish these maps today.
Current Location: 18.7N, 92.2W Geographic Reference: Over the Southeast Bay of Campeche Movement: South-southeast at 4 mph Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 175 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 993 mb Key Points 1. There are no significant changes in the forecast this morning. 2. The last full day of good flying weather in the Louisiana deepwater blocks will be Friday. Our Forecast Reconnaissance is currently investigating Cristobal. Early reports from the plane indicate that Cristobal has changed little in strength overnight as the center nears the coast of Mexico. Our forecast takes the center inland over southern Mexico this afternoon, where Cristobal will likely weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday morning. By Thursday evening, the center should move back over water, and Cristobal will slowly strengthen as it tracks across the eastern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Landfall is projected for late Sunday night on the middle Louisiana coast. The main uncertainty in the forecast is the structure of Cristobal as it tracks northward across the Gulf on Saturday. Currently, we think that the storm will be rather disorganized, lacking a tight core of squalls around the center. If this is the case, then Cristobal's max sustained winds may reach about 65 mph prior to landfall. However, there is a chance that Cristobal could develop a well-defined core, allowing it to reach hurricane strength prior to landfall. Cristobal is not expected to stall near landfall, it should accelerate northward across Louisiana on Monday, allowing for improving weather along the Louisiana coast and offshore waters. Expected Impacts on Land Southern Bay of Campeche: Widespread power outages are expected near where the center makes landfall, along with widespread severe to catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides. Widespread severe to catastrophic flood damage is expected. Remainder of southern Mexico and Central America: Continued flash flooding and mudslides should cause widespread major flood damage. Expected Impacts Offshore Bay of Campeche: Winds of tropical storm force are occurring within 70 miles to the south of the center. Waves over 15 feet are likely occurring.. Northwest Gulf of Mexico : Squalls may reach the deepwater areas off the Louisiana coasts by early Saturday morning. They could reach the near-shore waters along the Louisiana coast by late Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are likely on Sunday and early Monday across a large part of the northwest Gulf. The last full day for any helicopter evacuations will be Friday.
And may just need to watch what’s going on S of Louisiana in the more short term. This is the HRRR at 24 hours (only goes out that feels) and this is a weak storm trying to develop as it loves west. It’s just one model l, but the HRRR is a decent mesoscale model.
Current Location: 24.7N, 84.5W Geographic Reference: 815 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas Movement: West-northwest at 11 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb Chance of Development: 50 percent Key Points 1. The chance of tropical development is increasing. 2. The disturbance could become a low end tropical storm as it moves over the Texas Coast. 3. Regardless of development, flooding rainfall is possible for parts of eastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Our Forecast Disturbance 22 is slowly becoming better organized over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is likely to gradually become better defined over the coming days as it moves to the west-northwest. By the time it reaches the coast of Texas on Friday, it may attain minimal tropical storm intensity. There are no indications at this time that the system will become anything more than a low end tropical storm. The chance of the system becoming a hurricane is remote. Regardless of tropical development, the system is expected to produce heavy squalls over the deepwater lease areas starting tomorrow and lasting into Friday. In addition, flooding rainfall will likely occur for coastal Louisiana as well as southeast Texas. Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Louisiana and Texas inland to Hill Country: Heavy rains could lead to street flooding. Travel delays are likely. If the system becomes a tropical storm, scattered power outages could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the deepwater lease areas off of southeast Louisiana as soon as tomorrow. The squalls are likely to spread into the lease areas off of southwest Louisiana and off of southern Texas by late Thursday. Any tropical storm force winds would likely be confined to the coastal lease blocks near the Texas Coast. The next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT
@rimrocker isn't in hurricane country. Yall better get your own toilet paper prep lists ready this time.
Current Location: 25.5N, 87.0W Geographic Reference: 670 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas Movement: West-northwest at 9 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb Chance of Development: 60 percent Key Points 1. The chance of development has been raised to 60 percent. 2. Landfall is forecast to occur along the middle Texas coast late Friday into early Saturday as a weak tropical storm. 3. Regardless of development, flooding rainfall is possible for parts of eastern and central Texas and southern Louisiana. Our Forecast Disturbance 22 has changed little in organization over the past several hours. Conditions are forecast to gradually become more favorable for development over the next few days as it tracks west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. It may be able to organize enough to become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before moving into Texas late Friday into early Saturday. There continue to be no indications that the system will become anything more than a low end tropical storm. The chance of the system becoming a hurricane is remote. The forecast track and forward speed after landfall remains uncertain. In this update, we are once again indicating a slightly slower system. This increases the chance of higher rainfall totals over portions of coastal and central Texas. Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Louisiana and Texas inland to Hill Country: Heavy rains could lead to street flooding. Travel delays are likely. If the system becomes a tropical storm, scattered power outages could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the deepwater lease areas off of southeast Louisiana as soon as later today. The squalls are likely to spread into the lease areas off of southwest Louisiana and off of southern Texas by late Thursday. Any tropical storm force winds would likely be confined to the coastal lease blocks near the Texas Coast.
