1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease)/SARS-CoV-2 virus

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by tinman, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Messages:
    23,209
    Likes Received:
    9,524
    Ok add those numbers in with the overall numbers and assume all are due to covid19. That about 120/day on average, but a per day count would also suffice to track for peak levels. It's a significant bump and would be worthwhile if we knew how to attribute it to a day for measurement purposes.

    I just saw NY is reporting 779 deaths today. I've switched from doing day to day percentage increases to rolling 4 day death totals and calculating percentage increase off that. It's a less bumpy number. With this new number today and applying it to a rolling average percentage growth of deaths declined again today. I think it will be safe to call a peak when this rolling average shows less deaths than the prior day's worth of data, however the curve has flattened in NY.

    • 4/8 675.75 5.83%
    • 4/7 638.5 7.09%
    • 4/6 596.25 7.53%
    • 4/5 554.5 10.07%
    • 4/4 503.75 17.36%
    • 4/3 429.25 21.95%
    • 4/2 352 16.08%
    • 4/1 303.25 17.65%
    • 3/31 257.75 23.77%
    • 3/30 208.25 22.50%
    • 3/29 170 31.27%
     
  2. YOLO

    YOLO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2012
    Messages:
    46,471
    Likes Received:
    44,648
  3. Gabe0941

    Gabe0941 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2015
    Messages:
    890
    Likes Received:
    800
    Does this "closing" still allow people to go for runs, biking, etc? Cause I can see lots of them going out to have Easter time with family at parks.
     
  4. YOLO

    YOLO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2012
    Messages:
    46,471
    Likes Received:
    44,648
    if it did, then you really can't call it a closing. it wouldn't be any different than what it is now.
     
    Yung-T likes this.
  5. Cokebabies

    Cokebabies Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2009
    Messages:
    1,297
    Likes Received:
    694
    It's great that we're finally ramping up testing. One big bottleneck though is going to be processing the tests. I wonder if there's any impact to the accuracy if a COVID19 test kit sits idle for a certain number of days before getting processed. California just went through a backlog of like 45K tests this past weekend, many of which had been waiting to be processed for over 1 week.
     
    Amiga likes this.
  6. opticon

    opticon Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2006
    Messages:
    2,476
    Likes Received:
    1,201
    Good point.
    If the swab sits too long could the virus die and give a false negative?
     
  7. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2001
    Messages:
    43,147
    Likes Received:
    25,187
    mikol13, Buck Turgidson, Nook and 2 others like this.
  8. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2009
    Messages:
    23,514
    Likes Received:
    14,903
    Fine ass bih.
     
    Nook, bcast89, Hakeemtheking and 3 others like this.
  9. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    53,649
    Likes Received:
    41,527
    Health providers in some parts of the world are facing harassment and attacks.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ace-abuse-attacks/ar-BB12kjM9?ocid=spartandhp

    As coronavirus fears grow, doctors and nurses face abuse, attacks


    Mary Beth Sheridan, Niha Masih, Regine Cabato

    It’s hard enough being a doctor in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. But Sanjibani Panigrahi, a psychiatrist at a government hospital in western India, now finds her own neighbors turning against her.

    “We are sure you have corona,” one woman recently shrieked at her, she says, — part of a torrent of abuse from residents at her apartment complex. “We will not allow you in the building.”

    In some cities, health-care workers are earning standing ovations for the long, life-risking hours they’re putting in to battle the coronavirus. But in others, they’re facing discrimination and even attacks.

    In Mexico, Colombia, India, the Philippines, Australia and other countries, people terrified by the highly infectious virus are lashing out at medical professionals — kicking them off buses, evicting them from apartments, even dousing them with water mixed with chlorine.

    The culprits are a minority of the population. But Mexican state authorities are so worried that they’ve arranged special buses for nurses. In parts of Australia, hospitals are urging nurses not to wear their uniforms in public, to avoid attacks.

    Last week, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte ordered police to protect health workers after reports of assaults — including one in which someone splashed bleach in a hospital employee’s face.

    The hostility has been a shock to medical professionals already under immense strain. Scores of doctors and nurses around the world have died after being infected with the coronavirus. In many countries, health workers are struggling with a lack of basic protective equipment, such as masks.

    “I understand people are afraid, but abusing doctors is not okay,” Panigrahi said by phone from the industrial town of Surat. “We are at risk more than them.”

    In her case, the harassment ended after local police and politicians intervened, Panigrahi said. Her neighbors apologized, saying they had been frightened by news about the virus.

    But other health professionals continue to be stigmatized.

    A doctors’ association in Delhi wrote to the central government that health workers were being evicted by landlords over their work. “Many doctors are now stranded on the roads with all their luggage, nowhere to go, across the country,” the association said.

    “DEEPLY ANGUISHED,” the country’s health minister, Harsh Vardhan, tweeted in response to such reports. “All precautions are being taken by doctors & staff on #COVID2019 duty to ensure they’re not carriers of infection in any way.”

    Authorities say the attacks reflect misunderstanding of the virus and the strict hygiene maintained by hospitals to limit its spread.

    In one jarring incident, a man allegedly shot an ambulance driver last week in Quezon province in the Philippines. The assailant was worried the vehicle was going to enter a subdivision and spread the virus, the hospital said.

    The Peter Paul Medical Center of Candelaria said its ambulance driver was transporting hospital personnel, not coronavirus patients. “Moreover, proper cleaning and disinfection of the vehicle is done on a regular basis,” the hospital said.

    Protesters in Abidjan, the commercial capital of Ivory Coast, tried to destroy a coronavirus testing center under construction on Monday. Videos on social media showed people ripping planks of wood off the structure as police fired tear gas canisters.

    Some told reporters they did not want a treatment facility so close to their homes. “They want to kill us,” one told Reuters.

    Health Ministry officials said the center was not even designed to treat patients with covid-19, the disease the virus causes, but rather to test for the virus.

    Medical professionals worry the attacks and insults could demoralize health workers just when they’re most needed.

    “If we continue to harass them, more of them will quit their jobs, and our health-care system would be in danger,” said Reigner Antiquera, president of the Alliance of Young Nurse Leaders and Advocates in the Philippines.

    In Mexico, suspicion of nurses is so widespread that many have stopped going to work in their uniforms.

    The driver survived, with a finger wound.

    Scattered attacks have occurred in many parts of the world, including the United States. A nurse in Chicago told the local ABC7 TV channel last week that she had been punched in the eye on a public bus by a man who accused her of spreading the virus.

    “Going to and from work in my scrubs, I often watch people take two steps back away from me” — and not just because of social distancing, she told the station, speaking on the condition that she not be identified. “I think the concern is that any health care provider is contagious themselves.”

    Authorities worry such fears could erupt in violence, not just against health professionals but medical facilities.

    Maria Luisa Castillo, a 30-year nursing veteran, has worn her white uniform proudly. But on a recent afternoon, after working the daytime shift at Guadalajara’s Civil Hospital, it proved a liability. She was standing alone at a bus stop. A bus approached, she tried to wave it down, and it zoomed on by — to the next block, where it stopped and deposited passengers.

    “It was clear they didn’t want to pick me up,” the 51-year-old nurse said.

    She was among at least a half-dozen nurses in western Jalisco state who have filed complaints of discrimination or other harassment in recent weeks. In response, the state government is providing free transportation for nurses, along with face masks.

    Further north, in Durango state, officials summoned bus companies to explain that there was no health risk in transporting health workers.

    “We see how in Italy a nurse leaves her home to go to work and people applaud,” said Fernando Ríos Quiñones, a spokesman for the state health department. “But here we see these sad situations.”

    He said special buses were now dropping employees off at hospitals, and taxi drivers were offering 30 percent discounts to doctors and nurses.

    Sandra Alemán has heard the advice: Don’t wear your uniform in public. But last Friday, while driving to a public hospital in the city of San Luis Potosi for the night shift, the 32-year-old nurse stopped at a convenience store for a cup of coffee. As she was leaving, she said, some children hurled juice and soda at her, yelling, “Covid! Covid!”

    When Aleman scolded the children, she said, their mother slapped her in the face. As she attempted to run away, she said, she fell and fractured a finger.

    She’s now feeling something she never experienced in her nine years on the job: fear of going out in public in her uniform. Nonetheless, she said, she plans to return to her job.

    “When I recover, I’m going back,” she said.

    Sheridan reported from Mexico City. Masih reported from New Delhi. Cabato reported from Manila. Gabriela Martinez in Mexico City and Danielle Paquette in Washington contributed to this report.
     
    malakas likes this.
  10. Mango

    Mango Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 1999
    Messages:
    7,418
    Likes Received:
    1,802



    You are doing great work and my post is only a suggestion if you would like better formatting.

    I think that you are using a spreadsheet for calculations. In the past, I have inserted extra columns for what I call spacers in between the data columns. The columns with data and calculations are still standalone from the spacers.


    Date ….... Rolling Average ….... Percentage Increase
    04-08 …............ 675.75 …............ 5.83%
    04-07 …............ 638.50 …............ 7.53%
    04-06 …............ 596.25 …............ 7.09%
    04-05 …............ 554.50 …............ 7.53%
    04-04 …............ 503.75 …............ 17.36%
    04-03 …............ 429.25 …............ 21.95%
    04-02 …............ 352.00 …............ 16.08%
    04-01 …............ 303.25 …............ 17.65%
    03-31 …............ 257.75 …............ 23.77%
    03-30 …............ 208.25 …............ 22.50%
    03-29 …............ 170.00 …............ 31.27%
     
    malakas, No Worries, Amiga and 2 others like this.
  11. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2008
    Messages:
    21,697
    Likes Received:
    18,476
    now, how do we eventually transition to containment... flatten the curve seems to be working with restriction in some places already. The next phase is to lift that slowly while not going back to square one. I said it before - I don’t see a plan for that. Good thing testing is ramping up but what else is being done. That’s my initial light at the end of the tunnel - seeing a credible transition path.
     
    RayRay10 likes this.
  12. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2013
    Messages:
    19,455
    Likes Received:
    25,363
    The scary part is that we went from 22 deaths a month ago to 14,473 so far. I don't ever remember hearing of hospitals running out of masks, needed ventilators, etc for flu patients. We also didn't have to start overflowing patients to arenas, churches, or hospital ships in the past for flu patients.. This has escalated to a point that all people can't even get tested or get care soon enough. This has escalated to a point that people don't feel safe getting other needed medical help.
     
    #5792 deb4rockets, Apr 8, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
    RayRay10, Amiga, FrontRunner and 2 others like this.
  13. TheFreak

    TheFreak Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 1999
    Messages:
    18,246
    Likes Received:
    3,194
    You are trying to respond thoughtfully to a trolling post. FYI.
     
  14. tinman

    tinman Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 1999
    Messages:
    97,518
    Likes Received:
    40,149
    She's a babe
     
    mikol13, Nook, Andre0087 and 2 others like this.
  15. Miracle

    Miracle Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2015
    Messages:
    133
    Likes Received:
    104
    The numbers are definitely inaccurate, but are there any evidences that China intentionally concealed the numbers? I'm interested in that since the news did not provide any details on the classified report from U.S. intelligence community.

    As a side remark, there were criticisms on Germany's COVID-19 death toll since it only include those who "died from" COVID-19 rather than "died with" the coronavirus. Would people consider this intentional or not?

    China did not classify asymptomatic cases as confirmed cases and started to release the number only recently. However, one of the papers published by Chinese researchers in February mentioned that those cases only constitute 1.2% of the total cases (confirmed + suspected + diagnosed + asymptomatic) as of Feb. 11. It was definitely possible that many cases were missed at that point due to the inherent difficulty in tracing them as well as the limited testing capability. Two other possible reasons were (1) many cases with very light or atypical symptoms in China were considered symptomatic when typical symptoms of COVID-19 were still being studied; (2) strict social distancing had been enforced in many places since late January. Meanwhile, since the spread of the disease has been basically contained within mainland China there is no surprise that most of the new infections have been asymptomatic.
     
  16. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    53,649
    Likes Received:
    41,527
    Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota is extending the stay at home order until May 4th. MN so far has the lowest infection rate per capita but Walz still doesn't want to risk the infection surging here.
     
    RayRay10, JayZ750 and ElPigto like this.
  17. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2013
    Messages:
    19,455
    Likes Received:
    25,363
    Oh, thanks for the heads up.
     
  18. bcast89

    bcast89 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2009
    Messages:
    1,311
    Likes Received:
    465
    Do you think since our numbers are way higher than theirs that our stay at home order could go past the end of this month? Trying to keep up with all this but reading about it makes me paranoid.
     
  19. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Messages:
    23,209
    Likes Received:
    9,524
    Thanks to @Mango for my new formatting here are the 4 day rolling averages of covid-19 fatalities for the US and the percentage increase from day to day with that rolling average.


    Date.....4 day rolling avg......Percentage increase
    04/08...........1545…................9.22%
    04/07...........1415…................15.58%
    04/06...........1224…................2.04%
    04/05...........1200…................5.04%
    04/04...........1142…................13.55%
    04/03...........1006…................19.87%
    04/02...........839…..................22.71%
    04/01...........684…..................23.42%
    03/31...........554…..................24.77%
    03/30...........444…..................16.23%
    03/29...........382…..................18.45%
    03/28...........323…..................21.81%
    03/27...........265…..................38.43%
    03/26...........191…..................21.82%
    03/25...........157…..................37.72%
    03/24...........114…..................46.62%
    03/23...........78…....................8.74%
     
  20. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Messages:
    23,209
    Likes Received:
    9,524
    I also figured I would include New Jersey into the New York numbers since they might as well be one state in this outbreak. Combined they account for 53% of the total deaths and 46% of the total cases.

    Date ….... 4 Day Rolling Average ….... Percentage Increase
    04/08 …............ 840.25 …..................... 7.04%
    04/07 …............ 785.00 …..................... 10.14%
    04/06 …............ 712.75 …..................... 2.55%
    04/05 …............ 695.00 …..................... 7.17%
    04/04 …............ 648.50 …..................... 19.82%
    04/03 …............ 541.25 …..................... 21.36%
    04/02 …............ 446.00 …..................... 24.93%
    04/01 …............ 357.00 …..................... 20.00%
    03/31 …............ 297.50 …..................... 25.26%
    03/30 …............ 237.50 …..................... 21.95%
    03/29 …............ 194.75 …..................... 26.87%
     
    daywalker02 and ArtV like this.

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now