1million will get it. 100,000 to 240,000 will die?

Where are you getting the mortality rate of 10 to 24%?

 

The actual mortality rate is probably =<0.1% because there are thousands of asymptomatic folks who are not counted. The current high rates are attributed to the known positives only. All that said the stats or lack thereof are not political but that doesn't exclude any politician from using them or the virus in general. We've already seen that with the stimulus debacles.

 

There are going to be WAY more Americans getting this disease than 1 million. We were at 100,000 5 days ago. Today, we passed 200,000 KNOWN cases.

Think more along the lines of 50 million plus...hopefully less because of our social distancing...

 

They can claim the virus is different from the one in other countries. Call it Trump virus but it is way more deadly.

 

The actual mortality rate is 0.0%. All of the "deaths" are just really good crisis actors.

 

Exactly. Estimates for Minnesota where I'm at alone says that possible 40-80% will get infected. That means 2 - 4 million in Minnesota alone. Consider that same number for CA, NY, TX, and then we're talking in the 10s to 100 millions.

We often hear two numbers, the infection rate and the mortality rate of those who get the infection. There is a third number inbetween which is how many who get infected might be so sick they need hospitalization. If we take a figure of 60% of Americans will get infected that is around 200 million. If out of that 20% will become symptomatic enough to require hospitalization that's 40 million. How many of those end up dying is going to be effected by what are medical resources are. If we don't have enough hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators that number could be high or low. There is another factor is how soon people get it and how soon people recover, the flattening the curve. If cases are spaced out we can keep on cycling people through treatment without overwhelming the medical system. US numbers are probably higher than other countries because we got a later start and because we don't have the same health resources per capita as other countries.

 

That's the most depressing thing I've read all day, well this and the Texans forum.

 

It could be worse. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php...s-city-worst-song.304558/page-4#post-12921552

 

You make @Trader_Jorge look like a champion of civil rights, stop and go the **** away with your communist bullshit.

 

The mortality rate is likely 0.5% on the low end and around 1% on the high end.

Germany has done the best overall testing of its population and they are still north of 1%.

I think once you get to 50% of the country infected, you get people over the age of 55 to self-isolate and let the rest of the country get back to work.

 

Death is overrated. ~20% requiring hospitalization is much scarier.

 

that scenario is based on the assumption that Americans will adhere perfectly to social distancing and stay-at-home guidelines

U do know that

there are close to 10 states (Fla, Tx, etc) that haven’t issued stay-at-home edict,
​

No?

 

It's frustrating to hear such a wild variety of estimates. Why can Houston only test 250 people a day? What in the hell?

 

I posted an article in another thread detailing the inevitability of the situation and how our modeling estimates are obfuscating an important fact.
https://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.ph...sophical-question.304422/page-3#post-12920990

/non-expert opinion
I've read tweets about asthmatic people being an at-risk factor. I imagine if you're a vaper who got the wrong groovy syrup, you're in the same boat too.

I don't think it's a matter of having "flu seasons" but more like a one-or-two-off chicken pox with a higher mortality rate. That is...until we get a vaccine or a near instant and readily available test that reduces the oh-**** factor a hundred fold.

 

This issue here isn't morality rate. It's hospitalization rate which is around 20%.

If the expected rate of infected reach around 50 million, that is going to devastate our healthcare infrustrcture and pretty much have no ICU beds left. This will lead to doctors having to make difficult triage decisions on who to treat and who to let die in the hallways. People who have illnesses and injuries that have nothing to do with the virus will die because there won't be any beds left and doctors and nurses would be over run.

 

We will be lucky if a million doesn't die when all is said and done come 2022 or 23. Even if we seriously slow the transmission, it will just break out again the second we resume life... which has to be done eventually right? Another wave will surge. This thing isn't going away until either the vast majority of the population gets it, or the vast majority get the vaccine.... and you better hope the vaccine, which is over a year away and who knows how long it would take to distribute to the entire population, is the one that comes first.

The current global death rate on recovered cases is 20%, active cases 5% are critical, estimated that 20-50% of the infected are not symptomatic, testing is abysmal nearly everywhere. I'm (purely) guessing the true death rate will be around 1-2% for highly developed countries, perhaps it could be under 1% if a country has a relatively healthy population, with a good healthcare system that isn't overrun.

 

Either way we are now at the point to where herd immunity is our most likely end solution along with a potential vaccine by the fall/winter. 100k... 1 million... either way you’ll likely feel this close to you. Nobody is escaping this.

I would anticipate that mass rapid testing is going to be the answer to opening back up the economy and workforce. Employers and local officials will have to put in place rules to test everyone, and if you test negative you can go to work. Those who don’t test out have to stay in isolation till they get a negative test.

That’s really the only logical outcome I can see happening. Gentle asks to isolate... kinda... in America just isn’t working enough to be much of a solution other than helping hospitals a little bit.

What a cluster F. Sure does make all the other crisis’ like terrorism, etc look like small potatoes.