Okkkaaay.... sure. Those numbers are inaccurate.... if anyone believes that the “peak” number of active cases in this pandemic will be 1,800 Houstonians infected... then they are naive. Houston is the 4th largest city in the USA. There are 7 million people in the greater Houston area. Right now there are far more than 1,800 people infected in Houston right now.
Next time I will up my sarcasm even more. for anyone that is interested in chemistry look up bleach and ph and read some Wikipedia . It’s crazy how humans have adapted and refined chemicals with properties that strong to household cleaning use. Don’t ingest bleach . Don’t even get it on your skin ... if you do, try to quickly rinse it off.
Don’t shoot the messenger. The city has under 300 confirmed as of today. This study predicts 1,800 by April 7 and 3,500 by May 12 when it predicts that significant person-to-person transmission comes to an end here. This study was written by experts in epidemiology and an authoritative institution. Care to share your credentials?
At least Trump finally dropped the talk of reopening some stuff by Easter. April 30th is a better spot to evaluate things.
I think the problem is that the study uses assumptions about data that we know isn't correct...namely, the number of cases. We know we don't have enough testing to know how many cases we actually have...and we certainly didn't at the time this study was done 5 days ago. So extrapolating from data that we already know wasn't accurate at the time the study was done isn't as helpful as I wish it was...because I love the idea of this potentially being gone by mid-May.
It’s not just UT Health. Here is one of the nation’s most foremost and respected experts on this, who says that the nation turns a corner in May after a difficult April and normalcy returns shortly thereafter
He was behind the decision for the stay at home thing and is basing it off of hospital data extrapolated using testing data from around the world. Watching the video I think he was pushing for more "stringent intervention" he kept saying that so these numbers are not his prediction of the future, it was what he presented to public officials for policy decisions. The actual numbers will vary on how stringent the measures were (not stringent) and how long they last. He is pushing for keeping them in place longer. So probably much more cases as other people have said but his model was based on real data.
Not sure the numbers are inaccurate. I think it is bad reporting. Sounds like if strict restrictions began immediately last Wednesday, that would be the peak. Without reading report, but reading media reports, I take strict restrictions to be forced quarantines like China imposed.... not soft sh$t that is currently going on and will happen. Though this is reading media reports on something likely highly technical. I could be wrong about what actual model used.
Most have and will...especially the larger ones. But you're right, there will be others that meet regardless.
I'm no ant expert either, but those numbers seem unrealistic. Fauci believes that up to 200,000 people could die in the US. With Houston being the 4th largest city in the US, it's seems more realistic to assume there could 1800 deaths. With a mortality rate of 1%, that's would suggest 180,000 infected. I agree with previous poster who suggests there are already more than 1800 cases. I hope you're study ends up being right, but it already has me doubting, and doubt, like the virus will grow exponentially everyday. Another way of looking at it Fauci predicts on the low end 100,000 US deaths. Houston has about .7 percent of the US population. So that would mean 700 deaths. With 1800 people infected, that would make for an almost 40% mortality rate. Just seems off to me. I'm sure some of my math is flawed but not enough to compensate for the huge gap from this article.
