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D&D Coronavirus thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by NewRoxFan, Feb 23, 2020.

  1. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    It has such a strong bottle neck at the Testing point

    Rocket River
     
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  2. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  3. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    It will be one of the saddest things I've seen in my lifetime of American politics: one party willfully and forcefully moving away from science.
     
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  4. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian

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    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...onavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

    Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive

    A spate of mysterious second-time infections is calling into question the accuracy of COVID-19 diagnostic tools even as China prepares to lift quarantine measures to allow residents to leave the epicenter of its outbreak next month. It's also raising concerns of a possible second wave of cases.

    From March 18-22, the Chinese city of Wuhan reported no new cases of the virus through domestic transmission — that is, infection passed on from one person to another. The achievement was seen as a turning point in efforts to contain the virus, which has infected more than 80,000 people in China. Wuhan was particularly hard-hit, with more than half of all confirmed cases in the country.

    But some Wuhan residents who had tested positive earlier and then recovered from the disease are testing positive for the virus a second time. Based on data from several quarantine facilities in the city, which house patients for further observation after their discharge from hospitals, about 5%-10% of patients pronounced "recovered" have tested positive again.

    Some of those who retested positive appear to be asymptomatic carriers — those who carry the virus and are possibly infectious but do not exhibit any of the illness's associated symptoms — suggesting that the outbreak in Wuhan is not close to being over.

    NPR has spoken by phone or exchanged text messages with four individuals in Wuhan who are part of this group of individuals testing positive a second time in March. All four said they had been sickened with the virus and tested positive, then were released from medical care in recent weeks after their condition improved and they tested negative.

    Two of them are front-line doctors who were sickened after treating patients in their Wuhan hospitals. The other two are Wuhan residents. They all requested anonymity when speaking with NPR because those who have challenged the government's handling of the outbreak have been detained.

    One of the Wuhan residents who spoke to NPR exhibited severe symptoms during their first round of illness and was eventually hospitalized. The second resident displayed only mild symptoms at first and was quarantined in one of more than a dozen makeshift treatment centers erected in Wuhan during the peak of the outbreak.

    But when both were tested a second time for the coronavirus on Sunday, March 22, as a precondition for seeking medical care for unrelated health issues, they tested positive for the coronavirus even though they exhibited none of the typical symptoms, such as a fever or dry cough. The time from their recovery and release to the retest ranged from a few days to a few weeks.

    Could that second positive test mean a second round of infection? Virologists think it is unlikely that a COVID-19 patient could be re-infected so quickly after recovery but caution that it is too soon to know.

    Under its newest COVID-19 prevention guidelines, China does not include in its overall daily count for total and for new cases those who retest positive after being released from medical care. China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts.

    "I have no idea why the authorities choose not to count [asymptomatic] cases in the official case count. I am baffled," said one of the Wuhan doctors who had a second positive test after recovering.

    These four people are now being isolated under medical observation. It is unclear whether they are infectious and why they tested positive after their earlier negative test.

    It is possible they were first given a false negative test result, which can happen if the swab used to collect samples of the virus misses bits of the virus. Dr. Li Wenliang, a whistleblowing doctor who later died of the virus himself in February, tested negative for the coronavirus several times before being accurately diagnosed.

    In February, Wang Chen, a director at the state-run Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, estimated that the nucleic acid tests used in China were accurate at identifying positive cases of the coronavirus only 30%-50% of the time.

    Another theory is that, because the test amplifies tiny bits of DNA, residual virus from the initial infection could have falsely resulted in that second positive reading.

    "There are false positives with these types of tests," Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University, told NPR by email. Shaman recently co-authored a modeling study showing that transmission by individuals who did not exhibit any symptoms was a driver of the Wuhan outbreak.

    How real is China's recovery?

    On Tuesday, Hubei province, where Wuhan is the capital, said it would relax lockdown measures that have now been in place for more than two months and begin letting residents leave cities the following day. Wuhan said it would begin lifting its quarantine measures and letting residents leave two weeks later, on April 8.

    To leave Wuhan, residents must first test negative for the coronavirus, according to municipal authorities. Such screenings will identify some remaining asymptomatic virus carriers. But the high rate of false negatives that Chinese doctors have cited means many with the virus could pass undetected.

    Last Thursday, Wuhan reported for the first time since the outbreak began that it had no new cases of the virus from the day before — a milestone in China's virus containment efforts. The city reported a zero rise in new cases for the following four days.

    Assessing asymptomatic carriers

    But Caixin, an independent Chinese news outlet, reported earlier this week that Wuhan hospitals were continuing to see new cases of asymptomatic virus carriers, citing a health official who said he had seen up to a dozen such cases a day.

    Responding to inquiries about how the city was counting asymptomatic cases, Wuhan's health commission said Monday that it is quarantining new asymptomatic patients in specialized wards for 14 days. Such patients would be included in new daily case counts if they develop symptoms during that time, authorities said.

    "Based on available World Health Organization data, new infections are mainly transmitted by patients who have developed symptoms. Hence [asymptomatic cases] may not be the main source of transmission," the commission said.

    A researcher at China's health commission told reporters Tuesday that asymptomatic carriers "would not cause the spread" of the virus. Zunyou Wu, the researcher, explained this was because the authorities were isolating people who had close contact with confirmed patients. Wu did not explain how they would identify asymptomatic carriers who had no close contact with confirmed patients.

    Addressing growing public concern of asymptomatic patients, China's Premier Li Keqiang urged during Thursday's senior-level government meeting that "relevant departments must ... truthfully, timely, and openly" answer questions, such as whether these patients are infectious and how the course of the outbreak may change.

    Research suggests that the spread can be caused by asymptomatic carriers. Studies of patients from Wuhan and other Chinese cities who were diagnosed early in the outbreak suggest that asymptomatic carriers of the virus can infect those they have close contact with, such as family members.

    "In terms of those who retested positive, the official party line is that they have not been proven to be infectious. That is not the same as saying they are not infectious," one of the Wuhan doctors who tested positive twice told NPR. He is now isolated and under medical observation. "If they really are not infectious," the doctor said, "then there would be no need to take them back to the hospitals again."
     
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  5. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    Sooooooo bad tests? Freak incidents with weak immunity? Or it's so unstable that it's mutating at a rapid clip which will making curing it much harder. Great.
     
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  6. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    @RayRay10, one key part of that article may be that the tests, indeed, have false positives (and false negatives). It's in no way perfect.

    Picture James Harden shooting free throws, folks. Really damned good, but he doesn't make every one. Some of these tests, statistically, are going to give an incorrect result. Lots of steps in between getting a good swab onward to the result. It's an unfortunate reality of any measurement, but I think the miss rate is slightly higher than the public understands in this case.
     
  7. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    This is probably why they must have two negative test 24 hrs apart to consider "recovered", and yet it still fail (come back positive again) after the 3rd test for some.

    It seems they need to quickly move toward blood test to find antibodies against Covid-19 as a factor to determine who has some immunity, who can come back to work, if we are approaching any herd immunity....
     
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  8. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Formlabs is trying to print swabs using 3D printers.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...ARAN&usg=AOvVaw2aajnZ8Px6GKhcY4IbgjR2&ampcf=1
     
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  9. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking
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  10. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Contributing Member
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    lol
     
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  11. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    the nuts at the nra are suing the Governor of California and Sheriff of Los Angeles because the Coronavirus business closures are preventing gun nuts to buy more guns...

     
  12. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  13. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  14. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    Italy was there a few weeks ago so...

    Don’t wait until it’s too late... although the lead time on some of these plus the slow reaction from the gov could mean it’s already too late if hospitalized cases ramp up quickly

    https://www.wnem.com/news/a-letter-...cle_8ece1240-703f-11ea-999c-3f302f295b81.html


    A Michigan health system has acknowledged it's preparing for hard life-and-death decisions after a hospital letter was circulated online detailing who would be able to receive life-saving resources during the coronavirus pandemic if there's not enough equipment.

    A spokesman for the Henry Ford Health System told CNN the "letter is part of a larger policy document developed for an absolute worst-case scenario."

    "It is not an active policy within Henry Ford, but it is part of our emergency response planning," the spokesman said.

    The letter has not been shared with patients, but aims to explain that the coronavirus pandemic has made some medical supplies hard to find.


    "Because of shortages, we will need to be careful with resources," reads the letter, which is addressed to patients, families and the community. "Patients who have the best chance of getting better are our first priority."

    "Patients who are treated with a ventilator or ICU care may have these treatments stopped," it says, "if they do not improve over time."

    The letter goes on to say patients with severe heart, lung, kidney or liver failure, severe trauma or burns, or terminal cancers may be ineligible for a ventilator or ICU care. These patients will instead receive "pain control and comfort measures."

    "This decision will be based on medical condition and likelihood of getting better," the letter says.

    'What they put out is honest,' mayor says

    The letter is not just indicative of the situation in one Michigan health system, but illustrates the widespread challenges hospital systems across the country have described to CNN about dwindling resources as they struggle to care for patients during the pandemic.

    ...
     
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  15. Hakeemtheking

    Hakeemtheking Member

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    Worse than I expected and the real numbers must be crazy scary. Damn.
     
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  16. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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  17. malakas

    malakas Member

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    The tests Spain bought from China this week had only 30% sensitivity.
    Thats way worse than any of Hardens shooting stats.
     
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  18. omgTHEpotential

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    It is indeed troubling if the medical tests are less efficient than Harden's step-back threes.
     
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  19. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I've said in the past few days lets see where we are ~2weeks or so beyond the point where we began our social distancing / isolation in earnest which for most was after 13 March. Some sooner , some later.

    If we don't see some significant decline in cases over the next week ..... we're in deep.

    If that decline does happen , we should be on the downhill side of this thing.
     
  20. WNBA

    WNBA Member

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    that story has changed.
     

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