Texans trade DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona

When a team has the chance to swap an All-Pro receiver for a declining running back with a burdensome contract, it simply must take the deal.

That at least seems to be Bill O’Brien’s logic, which sent shockwaves through the NFL on Monday, when the Texans traded wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in exchange for running back David Johnson. Perhaps social distancing is making O’Brien go crazy and lose all sense of value. Or more likely, and more damning for the Texans, the team’s new general manager has never developed such sense.

O’Brien traded Jadeveon Clowney too late, weakening the player’s trade market, and the head coach paid an unprecedented price for left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who now holds all the leverage as he seeks a market-resetting contract. But this Hopkins deal is O’Brien’s worst move yet. It makes Deshaun Watson’s life harder, and for what?

In exchange for the All-Pro receiver and a fourth-round pick, the Texans reportedly received a second-round selection, a 2021 fourth-round pick and all of the remaining money on the three-year, $39 million contract extension Johnson signed in September 2018.

That last point is important. Acquiring Johnson did not have to be a much-criticized move. Had the Cardinals restructured Johnson’s contract to lower his cap hit and attached a low-round pick to him, that trade would’ve been defensible for O’Brien. Houston needs draft capital, and similar to Carlos Hyde a season ago, Johnson could be a bounce-back candidate at running back for the Texans.

But you don’t trade Hopkins for a second-round pick, a future fourth-round selection and a bounce-back candidate at arguably the sport’s most-replaceable position. And you especially don’t include your own fourth-round pick in the deal.

Despite facing loaded boxes on just 5.3 percent of his carries — the second-lowest rate among qualified backs — Johnson only managed 3.7 yards per carry while falling down the depth chart, behind Kenyan Drake. Arizona wanted to keep Drake and needed to get rid of Johnson to do so. That the Cardinals were able to shed Johnson’s contract while acquiring Hopkins, who earned his third-consecutive All-Pro honors in a “down” year, defies logic.

In the past two seasons, while playing with Watson, Hopkins ranked second in 1st down catches (81), fifth in receptions (115) and tied for fifth in touchdown catches (11). In 2018, according to PFF, he didn’t drop a pass.

“You look at DeAndre Hopkins’ stats in his career — they’re incredible,” O’Brien said this past season. “Everybody knows we’re going to him, so he’s one of the most targeted players over the last six years, probably in the top five of receiver targets. He is a chain mover, so he’s a guy that we go to on third down or first and second down to move the chains, and that’s great for a quarterback.”

Considering that production, his contract had turned into a relative bargain. For his position, it’s tied for fourth in total value ($81 million) and fifth in average annual value ($16.2 million) while ranking fourth in guaranteed money ($36.5 million). As a result, Hopkins wanted a new deal, according to a league source.

If O’Brien didn’t want to set the precedent of re-negotiating when a player has three years left on his current deal — especially as he works to hammer out extensions for Watson and Tunsil — then trading Hopkins was perhaps worth exploring. But how much exploring did O’Brien do?

There are a number of other receiver-needy teams — including the Patriots, Raiders, Eagles and Packers — but this is the best deal the Texans could find?

Now receiver is arguably the Texans’ greatest position of need. They’ll have to depend heavily upon Will Fuller, who’s played in just 28 games over the past three seasons, and they’ll likely draft a receiver or two. This is the deepest draft class of receivers in a long time, but chances are slim that Houston finds one who matches Hopkins’ production.

By chasing a short-term fix at one position, the Texans have created a new problem, which has become a trend under O’Brien. And no matter how the Texans move forward, it’s near impossible that they come out on the right end of this deal. When it comes to Houston’s biggest trades, that’s become a trend under O’Brien, too.

 

Doesn't matter Brian. Took on bloated salary of a has been RB Brian.