New Hampshire Primary

I think the race will be either Bernie by himself, or Bernie vs Bloomberg. I think Amy definitely fizzles soon, Pete has a better chance of staying in longer but I'd guess he will probably fizzle out before Bloomberg.

 

New Hampshire showed us who has the best chance of stealing Trump voters. Clearly it’s Amy. And 2-to-1 the voters stated in exit polls that beating Trump is a bigger priority than having a candidate they may or may not ideologically line up with

 

Will be interesting if Warren flounders into Nevada. You have to think she would consider dropping out and whoever she endorses may shake things up a little

 

Do you have any data on this?

We've known this for a very, very long time.

 

We're going to be stuck with either Biden or Bloomberg for a very long time. Perhaps even both of them.

 

in the same way john kasich was a mainstay in 2016 republican primary?

 

Biden’s donors are gonna jump ship like the titanic.

Bloomberg’s self campaign finance is a never ending well lol.

Bernie and Bloomberg being the last two seems likely, Bloomberg winning seems very unlikely, but you never know what dumping half a billion in ads will do.

 

Yeah been watching the CNN coverage all night. She did best in Bedford county, which is an affluent area with higher numbers of moderate/conservative/independent voters. Maybe finished third overall tonight so she has work to do among liberal voters, but it’s a feather in her cap if she keeps rolling with the general election electability.

as far as Biden...no doubt he had the pride and backing to continue longer than most, but I don’t see him being a major player if, say, he doesn’t win South Carolina. That would be very, very bad news and I think Bloomberg would eat up almost all of his support on Super Tuesday

 

The real story in New Hampshire, in my humble opinion, is that Bernie and Elizabeth Warren together only have about 37% of the vote. Pete, Amy, and Biden together have tallied around 53% of what has been counted so far. I expected Bernie to do better than he has, New Hampshire being in his backyard, and I certainly expected, up until a few of days ago, that Elizabeth would outpoll Amy by a significant margin. Better than 10% total, for sure. What this tells me is that at least in New Hampshire, the two candidates of the Left can’t scrap together 40% between them. Not yet, with 53% counted.

Calling someone the liberal candidate, liberal being how I view myself, seems to have fallen out of fashion in the media. However one might want to call self-described Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders and liberal Democrat Ms Elizabeth Warren, if I were a supporter of either one, I would begin to worry. In my opinion, when Ms Warren pivoted to the Left and glommed onto Bernie’s agenda, she made a mistake. Much earlier, she was seen as being more moderate than Bernie. That’s not the case today, and I think it has hurt her.

Votes are still being counted, but Democrats and independent voters who know that defeating trump is of paramount importance, of generational importance, that the nation’s future is at stake in November, have much to think about.

 

This is a very effective ad by the way:

 

That's not hard data that tracks definitively to Trump voters and conservatives, but it's a start.

I too think Bloomberg will eventually cannibalize Biden, but we're not truly going to know until Super Tuesday.

The problem right now is the non-Bernie people have a total log jam that isn't clearing as much as it is reaching critical mass.

I don't expect legacy campaigns like Biden and Warren to fold up shop easily. I think they will be very stubborn and not go quietly.

 

I agree that it is crazy that NH and Iowa are very caucasian states. I disagree that they have 'no' minority support at least in the case of Klobuchar.

Bernie is doing as well as can be expected. I think he is at the max of his appeal. I don't believe he will surpass Biden in SC, VA, MS. He should finish ahead of Amy, and Pete in those places though.

Also, anything can happen between now and those primaries.

 

Yeah we’ve heard Biden and Warren’s names as the two to beat (along with Bernie) for several months now. Given their age, this is their last chance at a presidential run. They’ll stay as long as they can. Someone grassroots like Amy or Pete has to keep fighting an uphill battle. We’ll hear from Bloomberg in the Nevada debate and be better impress because I’m still really frustrated that he’s a Johnny-come-lately

 

I don't think that's a word most people use when describing either of those two given their financial portfolios, inflated media coverage, and lack of volunteers in Super Tuesday states.

 

I really hope Warren is selected for VP

 

How is this a good night for Bernie?

In 2016 he received 60% of the vote in New Hampshire and almost half the delegates when running against the Clinton machine.

Tonight he probably won't crack 30% and won't win anymore delegates than Buttigieg

Also, New Hampshire has half the delegates up for grabs compared to South Carolina where some polls show Sanders trailing Biden and Steyer. Then the super 2 states aren't the most favorable for Sanders either.

This looks more and more like a brokered convention. Sanders better prey Buttigieg and Klobuchar don't team up.

 

Relative underdogs* then...compared to the widespread, established coalitions of Bernie, Bloomberg, etc. Amy and Pete are newcomers in the national spotlight

 

Because this isn't 2016.

And as Iowa showed us, 'wins' and how the media cover them matter.