Biden's "massive black voter support" remind of the Ted Cruz's "southern firewall" from 2016. It never materialized except for his home state of Texas and bordering Oklahoma. Trump drank his milkshake across the South and it was over for Ted. I think Biden should drop out soon. He's electability is taking a massive hit with single digit performance tonight.
So far it looks surprisingly bad for Biden and also bad for Warren but not as surprising. Mayor Pete surpassing expectations and Amy K really surpassing. Bernie is at the max of his expectations.
You very rarely see dems ask Bernie to come help them on the campaign trail and give a speech. This is because socialism is not popular at all. All the house dems running in moderate districts are going to have to explain why they have a socialist at the top of the ticket. They are going to have to answer questions about whether they agree with his socialist views. It's a nightmare scenario for them.
M4A is very popular even among republicans. Most of Sander's views are popular. The establishment just hates Bernie Sanders.
Now they are saying that Bernie and Pete are going split the delegates at the top. Man, this democracy stuff is very complicated. Bernie going to win the popular vote in Iowa and NH and he is going to come out with less delegates than Sneaky Pete, smh.
This is like saying the reason Ron Paul didn't get asked to come help Republicans on the campaign trail is because 'liberty' is not popular at all. Bernie is a hard sell in some places (most politicians are not popular ) but the real reason is that there are fundamental differences between certain wings in each party. Republicans have their own flavor of this in-group/out-group infighting the same as Democrats.
'Liberty' isn't a political belief system....... As for socialism, ever bit of polling show it has a net favorability of about -35. Have fun moderate dems.
CNN exit polls say there are not even enough minorities to register on their polls. I agree Pete and Klobuchar are doing well, but to say Bernie is at his max when Pete and Amy have no minority support going forward I think is wrong. Pete and Amy's base is All white and Bernie still got more votes than them in the 2 whitest states.
I think bernie almost has this thing locked up. If he is top 2 in SC and NV then i think its over . I think by super tuesday it all comes down to who's base is the most energized. Bernie's got the ground organization and wide base , as long as he doesn't get skunked in the next 2 he will win. If he does well the next two then he will be a CLEAR victor , IMO
Bernie doing well, Pete doing well again, Biden... totally decimated, again the story of the night to me, just like Iowa, is Biden collapsing. Really bad momentum heading into NV which is already on the fence for Bernie.
This is a 3 person race from now until the nomination. Of course Bloomberg has a chance of breaking through but I think that’s a raw deal. Has any other president skipped the first few contests? Really bad optics if a billionaire comes in and wins through relentless TV ads
Biden faceplanting (presently 8.3%) isn't that big of a deal. The real story here is Warren and just how distant her 4th place position is. As I type this, she's 10 percentage points behind 3rd and only 1.5% ahead of Biden. This was supposed to be her strong state. Top 2 finish. Top 3 at bare minimum. She just came in a galactically distant 4th. She has no path forward now. The momentum is gone, she just shot her ace, and she's bleeding money. I think she needs to call it.
Biden faceplanting is a big deal because for nearly the entire race he had a very healthy lead at the front runner. Warren was a flash and the pan, and Bernie just now surpassed him nationally... but Biden is still a close 2nd nationally. Warren fell of months ago after her serge in October.
Biden faceplanting is a big deal to people who haven't been paying attention to anything but the national numbers. He was never all that strong in Iowa or New Hampshire (in terms of voter confidence and resources). Tonight won't be nearly fatal for Biden. But it very well should be fatal for Warren. That to me is a big deal.
Or the people who saw that Biden was leading in the polls for both Iowa & NH mid-January, him going from leading / highly contested 2nd place polling to 4th in both races is significant, him leading nationally for the entire race to this giant crash right now is significant.
Bernie, Pete, Amy. I’m willing to do a tip-jar bet that Amy is a mainstay in this race. Look at the groups Amy won tonight: overwhelming support from college-educated women and voters who made up their minds in the past few days. She did well in suburbs and went neck-and-neck with Pete for the moderate voters. you have to look at the advanced metrics of these things. Klobuchar kills it at the debates and her fundraising is taking off. The metric she had working against her is name recognition. People know her now. She, Bernie, and Pete crushed the previous “moderate favorites” tonight of Warren and Biden. It’s a 3 person race
