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Small Ball Rockets at 118.6 points per 100 possessions

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by coyotetex, Feb 4, 2020.

  1. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

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    Great article discussing the differences between lineups with Capela or another big versus Small Ball lineups:

    https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/2/3/21121258/clint-capela-houston-rockets-trade-deadline

    The keys:

    1. In over 1200 "small ball" possessions, the Rockets are at 118.6 points per 100 possessions.

    2. With Capela, the offense scores 110.3 per 100 possessions equivalent to the 17th rated Pistons.

    3. The defense is 2.9 points per 100 possessions worse when Capela sits

    4. The Rockets small ball lineup would rank dead last in defensive rebound percentage leaguewide over a full season

    This isn't in the article, but it seems from the stats provided that the Rockets small ball lineup is at least +5.0 better in net rating than their lineup when Capela plays. A full season of no Capela would project to an 8.0 net rating which would be 2nd in the league ahead of the Lakers and Celtics. And that's before the team adds any new pieces from trading Capela.

    So whether you like the small ball lineup or not, I think its clear this is the data that Morey and D'A have been looking at that has convinced them that they can be a better team without Capela than with him.
     
  2. harold bingo

    harold bingo Udoka Only Fan
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    Who would have thought holic was right all along?
     
  3. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Will never win in the playoffs.

    Unless you have 2 to 3 elite 3pt shooters and uh......we don't.

    DD
     
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  4. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    How is a complete inability to get defensive rebounds gonna beat the likes of the Lakers and Bucks?

    They made Porzingis look like a legitimate All-Star, so I can only imagine how they’ll make AD look. Giannis will have no competition at the rim. Both teams will obliterate us on the boards.

    the Pelicans, who are slightly above average at 12th in rebound percentage, out rebounded us by 20...we got away with it and squeaked out a win because we forced 21 turnovers, and it’s the Pelicans

    What are their numbers like against playoff teams? How will they do against a big team that’s actually good like the Lakers? Will the Nuggets now have an easier time not having to worry about Capela? That is what I’m interested in.
     
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  5. icewill36

    icewill36 Member

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    Exaclty this is not sustainable in the playoffs unless we are going to be lights out from outside, and do you really expect our role players to hit an especially high percent when the lights are the brightest ? We need to be able to rebound the ball. Sometimes you have to throw some analytics out and use common sense.
     
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  6. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    Houston has been stingier defensively in Capela’s minutes, allowing 108.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the court and 111.4 points-per-100 when he sits, which is roughly the difference between having a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 unit. Since Capela went out with a heel injury four games ago, leading D’Antoni to flip the switch on his super-small-ball groupings, Houston has rebounded just 69.1 percent of opponents’ misses, a defensive rebounding rate that would rank dead last in the league over the full season, and has given up 14.5 second-chance points per game, which would rank second worst.

    This is supposed to reassure me? Nah. Nope. I’m not feeling what’s in this paragraph at all.

    So a bottom 10 defense and league worst rebounding combined with the league’s best offense is the new championship formula? How much will a wing like Covington and some decent C that plays maybe 20 mpg while we go super small the rest of the time improve the defense and rebounding? That is the key.
     
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  7. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Devils advocate

    Small ball vs good teams and against bad teams.
     
  8. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    me
     
  9. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    In Morey We Trust
     
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  10. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    he wasn't. you still have 4 out. not 5. his dream was to have all 5 out
     
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  11. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

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    We won that game against Porzingis didn't we?

    Math.

    The difference between the middle of the pack and the worst defensive rebounding team in the league is less 3.0 2nd chance points per game. That's one three pointer. The value of defensive rebounding is less than the value of improving the offense by 8 points per 100 possessions.
     
  12. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Replace Capela with Wings that rebound. Plus team rebounding must improve like it did in 2nd half of Pels game.

    It's a system shift form one position cleaning up glass to entire team. Even with Capela in lineup, Rockets struggled rebounding.
     
  13. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Rockets also won rebounding battle vs. Mavs and Jazz.
     
  14. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Look...the fact is, we have to deal Capela because Westbrook cant shoot. with those two guys on the floor and PJ injured, its literally just Gordon/House and Harden who can shoot.....damn you Tillman...and to a lesser degree James. :(
     
    #14 HP3, Feb 4, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020
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  15. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    We barely won, and do we win it if Luka plays? Here we go reducing the game to math again...sigh
     
  16. asianballa23

    asianballa23 Member

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    what about rebound and block shots?
     
  17. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    Just because Capela is useless doesnt mean small ball works. We beat 1 team and all of sudden analytics was right. I still have nightmares of Looney snatching offensive rebounds over Harden.

    This is just another Morey has another breakthrough formula to feed his narcissitic appetite.
     
  18. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

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    The reason you are seeing the greatest offensive player in NBA history playing for the Rockets for over a decade is because Morey reduced the game to math.

    Milwaukee is #1 because they reduced the game to math.

    Math is for winners.
     
  19. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    This is with Russ, not when we had CP3 & Clint.
     
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  20. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    #4 is why it can't be relied upon entirely. That'll kill you come playoff time.
     

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