Even "Moreyball" Basic Formulas Show Chucking Is Bad

We win a lot because Harden gets 40 and 50 plus. Harden gets 30 plus is unable to win. MDA should let harden to score at least 40 plus. Other bench players suck and unable to score.

This is the formula for this team. Unless Houston get another big to join such as Kevin love. I think it can relieve harden problem. Tucker is unable to score, they just double team harden can successfully block Houston offense. Time to trade to get another big

 

Lol at Kevin Love fixing our problems. One of the worst defenders in the league. He was damn near unplayable in the finals vs the Warriors. Smh

 

I just don’t understand, is there barely any communication between coaching squad and harden? Don’t they play for Ws? (They definitely got more statistics than CF fans here and see clearly that harden got more opportunities from mid-range, those midrange are critical to our L/W)
Why can’t the beard adjust his game a little bit.
Damn it!

 

The Bucks better understand situations too. For example, when they beat us, it was a very close game...but MDA went small and they exposed it by posting up Brook Lopez over and over and over again. It was why they won.

 

*sigh*

 

Bucks made a strategic coaching adjustment late in the game to exploit weaknesses?

Wow. What a revelation. Wish we had one of those “coaches”.

 

Apparently it's better if Harden goes 1-17 instead of just taking some mid ranges

 

Right, and the Bucks play defense too.

Defense doesn't just stop the other team from scoring, it's helps your offense score too.

The Rockets don't usually do the basics that win games.

 

I don't know if more mid ranges means more wins but I am getting bored watching them launch terrible 3's all game. Really hope this isn't the direction basketball keeps heading where teams just launch 50 3's a game. Such a waste of the crazy athletes they have.

 

Rockets offense is 3rd best in the league, .1 off 2nd. But we are 17th in DRTG and 20th in DREB%.

Before we completely tear down our offensive system, which is by no means perfect, can we please fix the defense? Every time the Rockets lose or are in a bad spell it’s always let’s stop shooting 3’s and ISOing, which I do get, but if this team played a lick of defense we would be in much, much better shape.

 

I’m tired of 40 threes a game
There should be more twos taken than threes
I bet that works

 

On a macro level, we know Moreyball works, and we know Harden step-backs work. The Rockets usually have a math advantage over their opponents.

But in specific situations, the coaches and players need to recognize situations when it's not an optimal strategy:

• When the Rockets' shooters (and mainly Harden) are on a ridiculous cold streak
• When Houston has already built up a large lead
• Crunch time in close games
• When the matchup suggests a better strategy

In this OKC loss for example, basically every box above was checked. The Rockets couldn't buy a 3, they still managed to have a big lead, it got close at the end, and Steven Adams' injury meant that the rim was open for attack all game.

We need competent coaching to direct the team when is a good time to deviate from Moreyball, and they should've told Harden to attack the paint all game with Adams out.

In crunch time, you don't need threes to pull away wins. Every basket increases your win probability, even twos. Harden mid-range is more than good enough to win us games even in the playoffs. Really, Harden should be taking midrange and postups regardless because we know they're effective. And once you have a big lead, you probably don't want to take as many threes since missed threes lead to fast breaks for the other team, which can allow them to start a run.

 

Posters have discovered ground breaking idea that since you missed a shot it would have been better to not take that shot.

We got some next level thinking ITT

 

This!

 

The fault in your logic is assuming that our defensive woes are completely independent of our offensive issues.

We have two problems on offense that hurt us on the defensive end: 1) high volume of missed threes and 2) turnovers. We give up 18.5 points off turnovers (7th worst in the league) and 15.8 fast break points (3rd worst in the league). When Harden/Westbrook turn the ball over, we're giving up free points. When we miss threes, long rebounds can often lead to transition buckets since our players are spaced out and can't get back, so more free points given up. It's up to the coaches to mitigate that weakness and they have completely failed so far.

What we can actually improve on the defensive end independent of offense is rebounding and fouls. We're better than last year on the boards but our DREB% is 20th in the league. We commit the 7th most fouls.

 

One more thing about the 3 point shot, if you miss the shot, other teams normally get the rebound from the middle court, then can get a fast break very easily. Plus that Harden is not a player who wants to chase another player in the fast break, neither are other rockets players. Just can not believe that this team is so bad right now, I thought that they are still top 4 team in the west.

 

One thing I would add is that defensive intensity is not independent of offensive involvement. Statheads don't like variables they don't understand. Thus, having the most offensively efficient player on your team dominating that side of the court and always taking the theoretically most efficient shot seems logical. But it neglects the fact that humans play this game. It's hard to give defensive intensity when you feel under-involved on the side of the court that gets all the glory - especially when the player(s) that get all that glory are defensive liabilities. And it is completely demoralizing watching shots not fall - especially if you already feel disengaged. Eventually, this sucks the soul out of team. This is why a really good point guard involves everybody - even those that are not the greatest shooters or who are in a bad slump. This is real leadership - something woefully lacking by Harden.

Putting two of the highest usage players in NBA history, both with really poor defensive tendencies, was bound to create discontent for the rest of the team which then increases the likelihood to underperform at both ends of the floor.

 

I don't know why more people are unable or unwilling to understand this point. It's not that generally Moreyball isn't an effective strategy -it is - but there are situations where it's not optimal to keep on spamming threes. I also find it hard to believe that shooting 50 threes a game no matter what is the secret formula to winning a championship. If it was that easy, every team would be doing it so there would be nothing special about the strategy itself. Ofc that is kinda what's going on right now, teams have evolved and adjusted to Moreyball and we're still clueless as to how come up with effective counters.

To me basketball is like a game of chess. There are moves generally considered to be superior than others, but you play the game based off of your opponent and specific arrangement which means sometimes sacrificing your pawn is the best move. Now if someone says sacrificing your pawn is not the most efficient strategy in vacuum, he would be right. But it could be in certain situations, and that's how people should approach taking midrange shots in today's NBA.

 

For years, I have been saying that "chucking" only works with high percentage shooters. This is not hard.

 

Did people suddenly forget that we have the 2nd best offense in the league? Despite our roster being basically just an MVP candidate, an all-star who was chucking the first 1/3 of the season, and a bunch of role players? We're definitely outperforming our talent.

If anyone is to blame, it's the construction of the roster and cheap *** Tilman, not D'antoni or the Moreyball strat.