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The problem with the Rockets has always been obvious --

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Senator, Jan 18, 2020.

  1. GMNot

    GMNot Member

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    Always?? I've complained (not posting it very often) that the problem is that despite the "theoretical" support for the Morey / D'Antoni "system," it is extremely difficult to make it work in real life. I just found an article which explains what "our" gut tells us by having seen that difficulty for years, now.
    https://towardsdatascience.com/the-3-point-statistic-to-rule-them-all-12ac018a955a

    As convincing as this article is in explaining a more accurate 3-point rating for any shooter in the NBA, just like quantum mechanics, no single event can be predicted. But it is a far better way to rate the likelihood of how a player will perform from game to game than using the typical 3-point average.

    Common sense and witnessing the up and down performance of the Rockets 3-point shooting spells the fear that the team has been assembled every year with players who "analytically" are good 3-point shooters, but who, in fact, as the above article argues, are not. I never bought into the idea that "volume shooting" of 3-point shots would overcome mediocre 3-point shooting. Yes, the Rockets can look great with that philosophy, but just as often they can struggle. I would argue that several other teams that are now emulating the Rockets philosophy, are doing better at it than the Rockets are.

    So what to do? Analytically (aka Daryl Morey) gets players that are very versatile, being able to defend well, play more than one position, and occasionally make 3-point shots. The 3NG statistic offered by the author of the above article, would indicate that it's all those 3-pointers being missed that is resulting in negative points per possession. It may go against Mike D'Antoni's DNA, it may make Daryl Morey be in denial, but it is obvious to just about everyone that "volume 3-point shooting is not going to win many championships. (It hasn't even won one yet.)

    The issue is: what "system" of play is the most realistic for the current roster. It definitely isn't volume 3-point shooting. It is possible that the current roster, which has been selected for the mythical success of volume 3-point shooting may not be as successful in any other format. So the die may be cast for this season and the near future (meaning seasons to come). It might be tempting for the brain trust to think a mid-course correction (aka the trade deadline) might be in order. But I don't see how any one player and/or subtraction of players will suddenly transform the Rockets to make such an idealistic system achievable.

    This is sad, in that, the character of all the player son this team are great -- all great guys. No bigger hearts in the league. But the system is asking them to die own their own swords. Live by the 3 and die by the 3. :(
     
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  2. palmsnbananas

    palmsnbananas Member

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    Thank god you arent the GM
     
  3. riko

    riko Member

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    I think the last 6 games that Harden has been struggling with his shot the teams record reflects that. The reason is the rest of the incompetent frauds are being badly exposed for what they are now that Harden is not playing at a superhuman level and bailing them out of huge deficits or sticky situations. Thank Tillman has to make a choice, avoid luxury tax and watch this team not be a contender as currently constructed or go in and allow morey to get creative.
     
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  4. RocketsFan247

    RocketsFan247 Member

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    The players are better than their stats. This system squeezes them dry. You can just tell which spots the players are not allowed to go. For the current system to work as we all want to see, the team would have to acquire generational talent ala Klay Thompson and Kevin Love. It's completely unreasonable to expect Bmac to pretend to be Klay and for Tucker to pretend to be Love as shooters who can space the floor and bail out Harden or Russ. This system is so one-dimensional that every team has the same version for guarding the Rockets. It makes the game look exhausting for the star players who have to grind thru the same types of schemes that appear to work half the time.
     
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  5. riko

    riko Member

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    No they are not. House is totally incompetent on both ends right now. Gordon is sucking it up. Mclemor has his moments but he is not a starter on a contender. They have been living off hardens gravy train and now that harden gets doubled and they are forced to make a decision with the ball they are being badly exposed
     
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  6. RocketsFido

    RocketsFido Member

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    I find it strange that Dantoni wants our players to play defense but he doesn't actually coach any defense.

    Like he says Tucker is our best defender and is an all-star in his eyes so he plays him as much as possible to "achor" our defense yet he sees Hartenstein as a net negative defensively by his own judgement.
     
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  7. riko

    riko Member

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    Well tucker looked like he injured his ankle so he has run him into the ground
     
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  8. RocketsFan247

    RocketsFan247 Member

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    With the exception of maybe Bmac, you trade House and EG away and their percentages will go up. Instead of saying that the players are broke and inherently flawed, maybe consider the fact that the system is broke and makes them look worse than they are given a different system or coaching style. The fact that they don't know what to do after Harden is doubled is partly due to Harden just dumping the ball to them and expecting them to create something out of nothing. Put KCP, Danny Green, Troy Daniels on this team, expect them to create, and they will look like scrubs. Not everyone can dribble-penetrate like Harden, Russ, and Lebron. The difference is that Lebron has his players on a string and they follow suit. He sets them up and gets them to move without the ball for open, in-rhythm shots. Harden has his moments. But in this current streak of losses, it exposes how broken this offense is. Gimmicky offense with an all-time offensive guru lends itself to gimmicky defenses... that work. No one is doubling Lebron because they know that he can beat it with ease. We like to credit Harden for commanding the double team this early on in the season, but it's to his discredit that he and the team has not convinced the league that we can beat the double with ease. That's all on MDA and Harden.
     
  9. riko

    riko Member

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    Harden gets them plenty of shots and try brick the wide open looks or throw the ball away. Oh please blaming harden for there incompetence is just downright Hilarious.

    House was on the scrap heap for a reason. Gordon has always been inconsistent . Reason why he has been a enigma. Harden continuesly gets them wide open looks off the doubles. Are you blind?
    .
     
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  10. bmelo

    bmelo Member

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    Well be fine
     
  11. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Can't really put my finger on it.
     
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  12. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Good development, WB didn't attempt a 3 for the Laker game.
     
  13. elmotsang

    elmotsang Member

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    Too much low accuracy shooter for Houston Rockets. No one knows how to shoot and defence.
     
  14. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

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    When I made that we miss green light thread all y’all hated on me. Like I said he was vital to the offense because of his quick trigger. That’s what harden misses. Harden reaction to double teams is to draw the double team out as far as possible and then hit the open shooter. Like you said the shooter for whatever reason hesitates to shoot. I don’t understand it but I know Gerald Green wasn’t hesitant to shoot. You don’t see this hesitation to shoot from our opponents. I don’t understand it. It’s what we miss most from the 2018 squad. Green and Ariza were automatic shooters. They shot without hesitation/consciousness.
     
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  15. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Where is the French dude we Signed from Utah?

    Rocket River
     
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  16. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    We've got a center that cant put the ball on the ground without losing it too often...
    Forwards who are too small to rebound, defend or box out adequately...
    An MVP SG who wont play defense or work off ball consistently...
    A PG who cant shoot 3s for a lick...
    A bench whose playing time is feast or famine based on MDA's insecurities vs injuries....
    A wuss coach whose pushing half a game plan thats already being emulated by half of the league - without making further adjustments...
    A GM who undervalues coaching, chemistry and size...
    an owner whose more worried about the tax man than winning...
    and no true leadership or accountability...

    yep... its a real sh*t show....

    we got the talent to turn it around... but idk if we got the mental fortitude...

    we'll see...
     
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  17. Giant9erRocket

    Giant9erRocket Hakeem Olajuwon Status

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    We've got a 35 year old starting PF that keeps heaving up stupid floaters (aka thinking he's Harden) and gives us 0 pts per 35 minutes. This is the problem. They need to trade his expiring ass before the deadline. Here's to hoping someone thinking he's still valuable. Cheers.
     
  18. Sanctity

    Sanctity Member

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    DeAndre is just about washed up and about 1/3 the athletic ability of Clint...
     
  19. ZJP3

    ZJP3 Member

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    Anyone who think EG needs to go is crazy. You think the shooting is bad now? Yeah let's just take away the only guy who can make it more often than not when shooting an open 3.
     
  20. RocketsFan247

    RocketsFan247 Member

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    Yes, partially blind. But I'm not lying to myself. And "continuously", I don't see it. All his passes are telegraphed and we're seeing an uptick in his turnovers leading to uncontested fastbreaks. Their 1st option to pass it out of the double, which is like 80% of the time, is embarrassing. He and the coach are taking a passive approach to the double instead of attacking it head on. Of course Harden's not to blame for their missed shots, but when they do get the shots, it's already telegraphed - everyone sees it coming. There's no variability to the game. The system makes it easy to defend. What would make it harder to defend is if he attacked the double. Or at least make a move as he sees the double coming. While it makes for really ugly and exhausting basketball in the regular season, I believe Harden would take full advantage of the double when he sees it in the playoffs.
     

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